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Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

OK...so maybe they figure they have the acres. We planted a little over 96 million last year, projecting 99 million this year...Is that extra 3 million acres going to account for the billion bushel fudge they're making in the carryout? Even if South America has a decent corn crop...3 million extra acres at a 140bu/ac. average for "fringe acres" makes 420,000,000 bushel. You need another 600 million bushels from South America to account for the lost bushels that USDA says we have somewhere....

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: One could give them the benefit of the doubt

 A report is a snapshot in time just like a financial statement. You are guided by the best information you have and you might find it faulty tomorrow or next month.

 

If there is some vast conspiracy by the USDA who are the conspirators and what is their objective. AND who benefits. has Cargill Ray bought off Tom Vilsack?. Inquiring mind wants to know.

 

Yes i do think that goverment policy is meant to keep planters planting. Crop insurance subsidies are meant to get marginal acres planted. What is wrong with that?

 

As for conspirators at the USDA, I think you have the burden of proof!

 

 

 

 

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

Pup - that extra fringe ground may end up being pretty good dirt , It could come from cotton ground , corn pays better for now , and a lot of that ground has sprinklers on it .

 

BTW John - good post -- lol  Would you care if I did a copy and paste and put it under you and DB-51's Marketing tread over on ag web ? I'm sure that 48,Tas and DB would geta kick out of it .

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

Ok guys the stress level readings here are off the scale. I have contributed to that reading as well.

SW: good job of tring to get us to separate the needs from greeds. Yes we have misplaced $1 on the beans and 75 cents on corn tha last two weeks BUT the prices are still great. Any body that can't pay their bills and ceate a tax bill with these prices is needing a new profession.

 

Faust: Glad you came out of your shell a little... next time don't hold it in so long.

 

As far as beans: I was very pessimisitic yesterday, after all we dropped more than a dollar lately. This morning I've had time to sleep on it. All in all the beans did better last year than corn for many. But SA short cropped it and the buyers showed up to the only store with product on the shelves...and they bought them almost bare.

 

Brazil has a great crop coming Argintina so so on beans, feed grains nope. The bean deal is sell now or wait till summer. Remember we have been selling beans like no other time in history. Soy meal took  a pop yesterday, how come? Cause somebody needed it and was willing to pay for it.

 

Blacksand: there are load after load of soy's in farmers bins and having storage paid on them at the elevators. Including myself I know of four of us right in this little group here that have between 50,000 and 60,000 bu of beans in reserve (storage)total between us as of yesterday. I do not think we are the exception to the rule. Two of us are hard to rattle, one of us may have sold today and one is hard to read. If I was a trader and the tricks hadn't worked up till now, I'd bring cash.  I think next late spring/ summer is going to be very hard for the end user in the heartland of this country to source protien supplements for the livestock sector.

 

The first train has left to station but there is another one on the schedule for the late night run.

The Usda comic book will either try to kick the can down the road, and be business as usuall or tell the truth and point out the pipe line will be empty by summer. There is corn out there but I think it takes $8+ to shake a very high % of it loose before July. I think the real # of uncommitted corn is somewhere in the 12 to 15% of last years crop = 1. 15 billion bu.  not much to get through the summer with. *

 

See anybody can throw #'s out there ... I just did

 

*WARNING disclaimer: this is for your ammusment only no claim is made for accuracy, This is not something you should bet the farm on. Treat your farming as you would play in a baseball game. when it's your turn at bat ... just hit the ball...get on base. It doesn't have to always be a home run over the lights out of the park type of deal. Most players never have that experence. Even a well placed bunt is a good thing once in a while. Only trying for the home run will mean too many strike outs and that will get you kicked off the team. At these prices we are being pitched easy base hits.  JMHO

 

Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

...I think I saw on DTN yesterday where cotton futures were starting to rally. If cotton rallies, and corn stays at the 5.00 level (fall price)...how many cotton producers are going to park their half million dollar cotton harvester and spend another three hundred thousand on a combine? I thought 140bu./acre was a reasonable figure, seeing as how some dryland grassland in Nebraska and South Dakota will probably be included in those numbers.

 

(By the way, I'm just arguing for the sake of arguing...I'm not convinced either way enough to put my money where my mouth is before the report, LOL!)

 

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

Hobby -- I'm still in the game  i just wouldn't feel right baleing on yeah , lol  Davey Jones Locker -- here I come LMAO

 

BTW -- I'm not going to read any more of this stuff till Friday afternoon !  Anybody want to meet me down at the longbranch for a beer and shot pool ?  how about it Pup ? lol

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Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

..I'll be there ECIN...as long as you pay my cab ride home!!!!...LOL!

 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

OK that makes five of us.Smiley Wink

 

I will agree with Faust on the Roy thing. great presenter, nice delievery, mostly nice paper . where"s the beef?

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

Don't know  where you live Pup but if it very far from East Central IN, I'll just send my jet out to pick you up , Smiley Very Happy

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 8

"De Ja Ve all over again"

 

Here it is Jan eighth 2013 and we have already just planted and raised a record crop here in the heartland. Where oh where have I heard or seen this before? Can't some one buy a new record with the profits from last year?

9 months till any harvest of corn and beans and the game has an announced winner?

Just talked about the big weather event on the news. Supposed to be here Thursday, A whole 1/4 inch... wow.

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