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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, January 9, 2020

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1¢ lower at $3.83 3/4. May corn futures ended 1 1/4¢ lower at $3.90.

March soybean futures closed 3 3/4¢ lower at $9.43 1/4. May soybean futures closed 3 3/4¢ lower at $9.56 1/2.

March wheat futures closed 9 1/2¢ higher at $5.62 1/4.



March soymeal futures settled $1.00 per short ton lower at $300.80.

 March soy oil futures finished 0.08 cents higher at 34.64¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.02 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 205 points higher.

Greg Lumsden, Cargill MarketGuide, says that the wheat market is clearly the leader, today.

“Beans and wheat have also priced in significantly more upside, due to a China deal relative to corn. That will make both vulnerable and potentially volatile until more is known around actual Chinese purchases. Wheat is up again today on technical momentum, bullish acreage expectations, and potential Chinese buying,” Lumsden says.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the March corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.84 3/4. May corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.91.

March soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $9.42. May soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $9.55.

March wheat futures are 10 1/2¢ higher at $5.63 1/4.



March soymeal futures are $2.30 per short ton higher at $299.50.

 March soy oil futures are 0.16 cents higher at 34.72¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.13 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 228 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:45am:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.86 1/2. May corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.93 1/4.

March soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $9.50 1/2. May soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $9.63 1/4.

March wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $5.57 3/4.



March soymeal futures are $0.80 per short ton higher at $302.60.

 March soy oil futures are 0.27 cents higher at 34.83¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.28 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 156 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors expect tomorrow’s USDA Reports to cut in corn and soybean production.

“We will need a bullish report for both corn and soybeans to keep prices pushing higher. We are building in risk premium, since many expect the crop size to be cut. If we see minor changes in crop production, then we could see corn and soybean futures pull back, ” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Kluis added, “What looked to be a very volatile Wednesday trade turned out pretty quiet. President Trump talked about the missile strikes from Iran. However, instead of retaliating with force, the U.S. will make tougher sanctions against Iran. The President also mentioned that Iran is backing down. Once that news was released, grain prices found support and closed mostly positive. With tensions between the U.S. and Iran settling down, this should be positive to commodities.”

 

Mike

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5 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 9, 2020

Just for perspective, military conflicts are never bearish commodities, never. The quants might want to trade it that way intra-day or overnight, but conflict always results in inflationary pressures. So, Alan pretty much has this backwards in the real world. Sure, the quant front-running computers played the media pressure that way, but look at the incredible amount of money they made overnight. Buying stocks on the lows, selling bonds, buying wheat, selling crude. All predetermined with a very comprehensive media social platform campaign behind it. Better than work if you can pull it off, which they have been for years with no gov oversight.

samalan1140
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, January 9, 2020

And these idiot trades will fight tooth and nail to keep these prices low even with a bullish report but usda has lied in the last 3 why stop now.

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 9, 2020

It wouldn't surprise me with some bullish numbers tomorrow for 2019's crops, that the USDA will raise the yield and supply numbers from 2018's crop.  It's not like they haven't done that before.   

Of course if that doesn't happen, then they will put out pie in the sky numbers for 2020's crops very soon.   

Either way, they are very good at doing their job.  Keeping food plentiful and inexpensive.   

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freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 9, 2020

Don't forget the Chinese New Year Festival begins in 16 days on January 25 and runs through February 8, so it most likely will be a slow time for big purchases once their celebrations commence.

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freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 9, 2020

And this was enlightening:

"Commodities trader Cargill Inc posted a quarterly profit rise of more than 19%, as the animal nutrition and protein business unit tapped into rising global demand for meat untainted by the spread of African swine fever in Asia."

***

"Earlier this month, Bunge Ltd said ended its 13-year ownership interest in an Iowa ethanol plant, following industry struggles with thin margins and overproduction. And Louis Dreyfus Co (LDC) has overhauled its executive team and launched a cost-cutting plan."

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/grain-trader-cargills-second-quarter-profits-jump-as-global-mea...

 

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