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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk January 9

USDA Pre-Report Story

 

 

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At the close:

 

The March corn futures closed 6 cents higher at $4.00 per bushel.
March soybean futures finished 4 cents higher at $10.52.

 

 

 

March wheat futures finished 3 1/4 cents lower to $5.63. The March soybean meal futures closed $1.90 per short ton higher at $349.10. March soyoil futures settled $0.08 lower at $33.68.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.08 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 143 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

The March corn futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $3.95 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading  2 3/4 cents lower at $10.45.

 

 

 

March wheat futures are trading 1 1/2 cents lower to $5.65. The March soybean meal futures are trading $0.03 per short ton lower at $346.90. March soyoil futures are trading $0.12 lower at $33.64.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.65 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.

 

--------------------------------

 

At the open:

The March corn futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $3.95 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading  2 3/4 cents lower at $10.45.

 

March wheat futures are trading 1 1/2 cents lower to $5.65. The March soybean meal futures are trading $0.03 per short ton lower at $346.90. March soyoil futures are trading $0.12 lower at $33.64.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.65 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

More Fresh Exports Friday. USDA announced

Private exporters reported the following activity:

 

  • Export sales of 136,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2014/2015 marketing year; and
  • Export sales of 116,000 metric tons of grain sorghum for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2014/2015 marketing year.    

 

The marketing year for corn and grain sorghum began Sept. 1.

 

Mike

------------

At 7:15am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 10-12 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil = $0.31 lower per barrel.
Dollar = Lower
Wall Street = Lower on weaker global markets.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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5 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 9

CONAB, Brazil's government agency, released new 2015 Crop Estimates Friday:

PRODUCTION:
Soybean=  95.9 million metric tons, up 115,000 from its Dec estimate. Yields were lowered across the far northern Brazil and southern Brazil state's like RGDS. But, yields were left alone in Mato Grosso.

Corn= 79.1 mmt,  up 360,000 MTs.  This estimate is 4 mmt above the
USDA's target.

EXPORTS
Soybeans= For 2014/15 at 49.6 mmt, vs. 45.7 last year and vs. the USDA's estimate for 2014/15 at 46 mmt.

 

What do you think? A lot of crop to bring onto the market, huh?

 

Mike

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 9

"Green Plains Inc. GPRE +3.22% may buy more cattle feedlots after the ethanol maker expanded into the business last month with the purchase of a Kansas cattle yard, its chief executive said. 

Running a feedlot has given Green Plains an outlet for some of its dried distillers grains, a byproduct of ethanol production that is used to feed livestock, and it has improved the company's views into the cattle markets generally, CEO Todd Becker said in an interview. 

"So far we've liked the results of the cattle feeding business," Mr. Becker said. "It probably won't be the last one we buy." 

Green Plains' June purchase of Supreme Cattle Feeders, based near Kismet, Kan., was an unconventional move for a company whose main business is processing corn into ethanol, a fuel additive. Feedlots fatten up livestock before they are sold to slaughterhouses, and the business has suffered in recent years due in part to drought-diminished cattle herds. 

Mr. Becker said the deal, terms of which weren't disclosed, was in line with Green Plains' plan to add businesses that fit alongside its core ethanol production, including existing operations in grain storage and trading. "Even though we produce a lot of fuel and energy, our baseline and the basic business we're in is agricultural processing." 

Even if Green Plains grows to become a major feedlot operator, such a business would still only consume about a sixth of the 3 million tons of dried distiller's grains that the company produces per year, Mr. Becker said. Running the business gives the company a better idea of when and why livestock companies may buy DDGs, which will help Green Plains decide when and where to sell the product. 

Green Plains on Wednesday reported $32.3 million in second-quarter earnings, about five times the $6 million earned in the prior-year period. Revenue climbed 4% to $838 million in the quarter. 

The company is running its ethanol plants at close to 95% capacity, benefiting from a steep slide in corn prices that has improved profit margins for ethanol makers and buoyed demand from overseas buyers including Brazil, Canada and India, Mr. Becker said. 

Continued cheap grain prices are likely to keep U.S. ethanol competitive on the global market and could see the country next year export 800 million to 1 billion gallons of the fuel additive, roughly in-line with this year's rate so far, Mr. Becker said"

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 9

A little blue smoke there but clearly amazing profit margins.  And a strong move to move byproduct.

 

Let's see We been to 7+ dollar corn and down to 3.5 corn  --------- 110 dollar crude and down below 50 crude  -------

Always profits..............

 

Supreme was owned by a packer................ Packer operating close by....................

Supreme has no rail........ maybe why the reference was Kismet, nearest siding..........

Local ethanol tying up feedlots for the distant e plants??

Supreme sits between two big e plants...................

 

just thinking what drives this move.  

 

Not a big feed lot.  But interesting.

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 9

Perspective thought

 

Comparing the feed lot region to 30 years ago.  

The volume of feeding capacity has expanded far more than the crop production in the same period.

Add in ethanol in a big way.

If the cattle numbers were not down.....................

Hogs and dairy all new in that time period............. and big growth.

 

I know it is backyard itis.   But few look at a backyard the size of the feeding region between Amarillo tx and Colby, Ks

 

It is hard not to be confident in the grain markets long term.  The potential to feed and grind at levels 25% above this is already in place.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 9

FYI:

This Todd Becker is a real sharp guy. I've interviewed him before, regarding the Shenandoah, Iowa, algae research plant, which is attached to an ethanol plant. In addition, he used to be a commodities trader, for about 20 years or so.

 

Mike

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