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Tony_Dreibus
Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk January 9

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.49. May futures settled 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.57 1/4. March soybean futures ended 3¢ lower at $9.63 3/4.  May soybean futures ended 3¢ lower at $9.74 1/2. March wheat futures closed 4 3/4¢ higher at $4.45. March soy meal futures finished $3.30 per short ton lower at $318.20. January soy oil futures finished 0.16 higher at 33.70¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.32 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 122 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.50. May futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.58. March soybean futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $9.62.  May soybean futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $9.73. March wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.31. March soy meal futures are $4.00 per short ton lower at $317.50. January soy oil futures are 0.16 higher at 33.70¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.90 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 113 points higher.

 

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity’s Managing Director, says the soybean market is lower, due to favorable crop-weather in Brazil.
“The weather models remain consistent with a Friday/Saturday rain event with 70% coverage for Argentina. Each day that the rain “stays” in the forecast, confidence grows. Technically though, we are still holding last week’s lows just under $9.59,” Ward says.
 
Wheat and corn prices both are benefiting from short covering, he says.
“I think it surprised everyone that ‘open interest’ surged so much in corn yesterday, over 42,000 contracts, and assuming that was on a down day it was new investors with short positions entering the market. They were at least unable to violate the contract low from December at $3.46 ½, basis March corn, and thus some short covering today,” Ward says.
 
Wheat continues to hold last week’s lows, keeping its uptrend intact, he says.
“Expectations for Friday’s USDA report for wheat are for less acres. So, it’s possible there will be some supportive data toward wheat. But with both corn and wheat, demand needs to improve and improve dramatically, otherwise short covering rallies will continue to be sold,” Ward says.
 
He adds, “I am hearing basis levels tightening on corn, just got a call from a  good customer in Iowa that Shell Rock, Iowa, buyer pushed basis to 20 under the March, best bid of the year. Nothing is moving in the country, so tighter basis needs to happen to entice producers to bring it out.”

 

Mike

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In early trading:

At 9:00am, the March corn futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.48. May futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.56. March soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $9.64.  May soybean futures are 2¢ lower at $9.75. March wheat futures are unchanged at $4.27. March soy meal futures are $2.00 per short ton lower at $319.50. January soy oil futures are 0.05 higher at 33.59¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.30 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 46 points higher.

 

Mike

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Soybeans were lower on rainfall in Argentina that's reportedly giving crops a boost, while grains were little changed overnight. Beans were down about 3 cents and corn and wheat both moved less than a penny. Everybody this morning is talking about President Trump's speech at the American Farm Bureau Federation meeting yesterday where he touted his tax bill, saying it will help farm businesses, and touched on the 2018 Farm Bill and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). He didn't have a lot of time -- only about 35 minutes -- so he didn't get too in-depth with each topic. He also mentioned that he'd signed an order to expand rural broadband. In weather news, a new Arctic blast is heading for the northern Plains and is expected to bring snow, wind and extremely low wind chills to the northern Plains starting tomorrow. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-january-9.

 

Brent Crude Oil = up 0.4%.

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.6%.

Dollar = up 0.2%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight.

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3 Replies
jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 9

Never listened to the President's speech but from the news/twitter clips was there no mention of ethanol?  Of course, I don't think I am the class of farmer Farm Bureau is working for anyway.

 

Kind of surprised haven't seen  post on U.S. Census (or is it being discussed in another forum?)  So much of the information is already in the government hands through the FSA and the IRS, but government waste billions on  gathering them again. Their IT division needs work...of course we see that with crop reports, all acres reported by the end of July and they are still estimating for months to come.  I wonder if a private company like Cargill, that raises hogs all over the U.S. has to fill out this Census and give out all their profit and loss and production information? Not picking on Cargill, they were just the first that came to mind.

 

Cash beans are running about 80 cents under the January highs from 2016.  Corn about 10-20 cents.  Every farmer needs to drive through Nebraska all the way into Ohio and maybe throw in a northern route including MN after harvest to see how little production problems in one area matter to the big picture.  Seems like we are in a time when everyone is growing corn and beans, new reality.

 

 

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 9

I would say crude thinks ethanol will be curtailed.  Cruz still hasn't allowed Northey to be confirmed.  Oil is winning this battle so far.

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 9

Check off dollars at work.  Is it true Chevy doesn't make flex fuel pickup's anymore?   Big oil got drilling in Alaska, drilling off shore, and less flex fuel vehicles.  Some one might need to wake up here in ag land.

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