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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, July 11, 2019 (Report Day)

USDA Report estimates ***********

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What you need to know:

USDA left corn and soybean acreage unchanged. Soybean yield dropped by 1 bushel per acre, and corn old-crop exports dropped by 100 million bushels. Otherwise, no marquee changes.

 

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At the close:

At the close, the Sep. corn futures finished 9 1/4¢ higher at $4.44 1/4. Dec. corn futures finished 8 1/2¢ higher at $4.48.

Aug. soybean futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $8.99. November soybean futures finished 4 1/2¢ higher at $9.17 3/4.

Sep. wheat futures closed 16 3/4¢ higher at $5.21 1/2.



August soymeal futures settled $1.70 per short ton higher at $312.40.

 August soy oil futures closed $0.09 higher at 28.18¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.20 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 150 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 11:31am:

At midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $4.33. Dec. corn futures are 3¢ lower at $4.36.

Aug. soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $8.95 1/2. November soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.13 3/4.

Sep. wheat futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $5.13 1/2.



August soymeal futures are $0.60 per short ton higher at $311.70.

 August soy oil futures are $0.11 lower at 28.20¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.35 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 190 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 11:11am:

The USDA made little changes for U.S. corn and soybean production and ending stocks estimates, in its July monthly report released Thursday.

Corn

In its July Crop Production Report the USDA pegged the U.S. 2019 corn production at 13.875 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 13.3 billion bushels and the USDA’s June estimate of 13.68 billion.

The U.S. 2019 corn yield is estimated at 166 bushels per acre vs. the trade’s estimate of 164 bu./acre and the USDA’s previous estimate of 166 bu./acre.

Soybeans

For soybeans, the U.S. 2019 production is pegged at 3.84 billion bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 3.871 billion bushels and the USDA’s June estimate of 4.15 billion.

The USDA sees the U.S. soybean yield averaging 48.5 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 48.4 bu./acre and the governmental agency’s previous estimate of 49.5.

U.S. 2018/19 Ending Stocks

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2018/19 corn ending stocks at 2.34 billion bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 2.21 billion bushels and the USDA’s June estimate of 2.19 billion.

For soybeans, the old crop ending stocks were estimated at 1.05 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 1.05 billion and the USDA’s June estimate of 1.07 billion.

U.S. 2019/2020 Ending Stocks

For corn, the new-crop ending stocks are pegged at 2.01 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 1.589 billion bushels and the USDA’s June estimate of 1.67 billion.

For soybeans, new-crop ending stocks are estimated at 795 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 816 million bushels and the USDA’s June estimate of 1.045 billion bushels.

USDA pegged the U.S. new-crop wheat ending stocks at 1.00 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 1.031 billion and the USDA’s June estimate of 1.072 billion.

Trade Response

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that on the surface, today’s USDA/WASDE report showed some tightening of wheat supplies versus last month, but overall global supplies of wheat are more than adequate.

"The underlying story in today’s report is definitely the global tightening of the soybean balance sheet, with global bean stocks down over 7% and global production down over 9%. Global usage of soybeans is projected higher, even in the face of the swine flu pandemic in Asia. All eyes will be on the August WASDE for more clarity around yields and acres, which are the big unknown variables right now," Gilbertie says.

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the WASDE report's world wheat production causing increased U.S. export demand potential was the bullish highlight. 

"USDA used the June acres for corn and beans and that led to reduced beans and increased corn production estimates that no one thinks is accurate.  The naysayers might be right.  We pivoted to weather right away, as July is supposed to be hot and dry.  These crops are so far behind that hot and dry in July could really hurt the corn and maybe the beans.  Reversal day in the corn, so maybe we got some upside coming tomorrow and next week."

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the Sep. corn futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $4.32. Dec. corn futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $4.36.

Aug. soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $8.93 1/2. November soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $9.11 3/4.

Sep. wheat futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $5.01 1/2.



August soymeal futures are even per short ton at $310.70.

 August soy oil futures are $0.11 lower at 27.98¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.17 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 99 points higher.

On Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report unfavorable soybean, wheat figures.

Corn= 497,000 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-650,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 261,700 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 mt.-750,000 mt.

Wheat= 284,400 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-550,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 52,600 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 50,000-350,000 mt.


Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that following today’s USDA Crop Production Report the trade will be focused on crop-weather.

“Corn demand continues to fade; however, the 2019 corn crop is still in question. Watch the weather forecast to see how long the hot dry weather pattern for the Midwest will last. If the hot and dry weather forecasts persist more than 10 or 14 days, then this should provide some support to the corn market,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The corn and soybean markets could settle in to a sideways trading range. The crop is growing, but we are still very far behind on progress. That should help keep us supported going forward.”

 

What say you?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 11, 2019 (Report Day)

Merriam - Webster  - Advisor  or  Adviser  -  a person who gives advice in a particular field  -  -  - 

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