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Veteran Contributor
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Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

USDA SAYS:

It left the U.S. crop yield estimates unchanged. Only Argentina's corn crop was little changed.

 

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 201`6/17 corn ending stocks at 2.37 billion bushels vs. USDA’s last month’s estimate of 2.29 billion bushels and the trade’s expectation of 2.32 billion.

 

For 2017/2018, the U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at  2.32 billion bushels vs. the average estimate of 2.181 billion bushels and last month’s 2.11 billion.

SOYBEANS

For 2016/2017 U.S. soybean ending stocks at  410 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 430 million and USDA’s June estimate of 450 million.

 

For 2017/2018, the USDA sees the U.S. soybean ending stocks at  460 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 495 million bushels and USDA’s June estimate of 495 million.

WHEAT

U.S. 2017/2018 wheat ending stocks are pegged at  938 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 876 million and USDA’s June estimate of 924 million.

 

TRADE REACTION:

--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group's Senior Market Analyst:

"Corn is the focus with the current year ending stocks higher due to reduced feed, beans in line with ideas."
 
--Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy senior grain analyst:

"With the exception of wheat, the July reports are fairly mundane as the USDA’s reliance on their July-centric weather models for corn and soybean yields make no changes until August.  While the market should know this, it’s surprising how many still “hoped” for a yield adjustment.  2016/’17 corn stocks rising was another non-event as the recently-released Quarterly Stocks report called into question Feed usage.  In soybeans, an increase in export expectations may be considered a bit of a surprise given the size of South American production.  The main event was spring wheat production, which has been devastated by the drought in the Dakotas.  In our opinion, spring wheat production is susceptible to further cuts, possibly below 400 million bushels.  With no real clarity, the corn and soybean markets are back to watching weather forecasts as they await the first yield revision coming in early August. "

 

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading:

"Today’s report will help keep farmer hopes of high per acre corn yields alive a little while longer, which will put every weather forecast for the next few weeks under intense scrutiny. Persistent soybean demand was confirmed again, and we’ve finally received official recognition of the Northern Plains drought having deeply affected the winter wheat crop. Weather will control price direction in all the major grain markets from this point onward."

 

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At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 16 1/4¢ lower at $3.85, while December futures finished 15 1/2¢ lower at $3.98 3/4. Aug. soybean futures ended 8 1/2¢ lower at $10.20 3/4, November soybean futures closed 9 1/4¢ lower at $10.34. September wheat futures settled 16¢ lower at $5.37. August soy meal futures finished $2.70 per short ton lower at $336.00. August soy oil futures closed $0.29 lower at 33.52¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.60 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 134 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 11:15am:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are 10 3/4¢ lower at $3.92, while December futures are 10 1/2¢ lower at $4.03. Aug. soybean futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $10.24, November soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $10.38. September wheat futures are 11¢ lower at $5.42. August soy meal futures are $1.80 per short ton lower at $336.90. August soy oil futures are $0.08 lower at 33.73¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.44 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 116 points higher.

 

Mike

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At the open:

In early trading, the Sept. corn futures are 6¢ loweer at $3.86, while December futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $4.08. Aug. soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $10.21, November soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $10.35. September wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $5.48. August soy meal futures are $2.10 per short ton lower at $336.60. August soy oil futures are $0.21 lower at 33.60¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.07 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 126 points higher.

 

Mike

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Grains and beans were lower in overnight trading again ahead of the WASDE report due at noon in Washington today. While traders aren't expecting much in terms of surprises, they're not willing to leave the profits they've made in the past two weeks on the table in case there's a shock to the down side. Corn was down about 6 cents, beans lost 11 cents and wheat was down about a nickel. Weather maps this morning are showing a heat dome that's parked over Missouri, Illinois and parts of almost all the neighboring states. The heat index in the region will again be close to 110F. You all talked about Indiana getting some rain in yesterday's Floor Talk -- well that's expected to move out today only to return tomorrow, though forecasts aren't calling for heavy rain on Thursday. WASDE is today and the USDA is expected to raise its outlook for corn stocks while lowering beans and wheat. See all the details in today's 3 Big Things at http://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-july-12

 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = up 1.5%

West Texas Intermediate = up 1.3%

Dollar = up 0.1%

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher as crude rebounds. 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 306
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

Wow somehow they gained imaginary bushels again in a month where the weather stayed quite the opposite. Well I guess the good news here is they have been completely upside down wrong on the last three reports shy would anyone in their right mind believe this nonsense.?.
Veteran Advisor
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Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

"Today’s report will help keep farmer hopes of high per acre corn yields alive a little while longer"

 

LOL, today's report has absolutely zero to do with 'farmer hopes' for high yields.  The only 'farmer hopes' that are somewhat influenced by the report -- good usage/demand for our products, projections of reasonably profitable prices for whatever we individually assess our eventual yields to be.

Esteemed Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

The house always wins.    Smiley Wink

Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

yes WCMO my head shook when I saw that as well.....

 

What farmer would judge their personal yields on a gov. report.  Ill bet this guy hasn't got a clue where his donut came from.   

 

Or his beer and scotch................ or his grassssss fed steak...

Honored Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

I noticed we scooted right over that 10% drop in bean carry out....below expectations  .........on a year when bean acres are supposed to be up....  

 

Scoville's comment has its fun spots also..... "Corn is the focus with the current year ending stocks higher due to reduced feed, beans in line with ideas."

 

When he says corn is the focus you know beans and wheat are the numbers that are important..

And second  reduced feeding is rediculous with placements of cattle up.  birds and hogs #s   the only thing that is on less feed is me....

Third.............beans in line with ideas ............... There's a real eye opener.  Gonna adopt that as my new theme for those in the know....

Special bred beans?  The thinking man's beans ???    

 

 

 

 

beans in line with ideas.

 

Erika.jpgimages-1.jpegimages.jpeg

 

beans in line with ideas.

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

From "reliability" tables, figured from 1981/82 marketing year thru 2016/17 marketing year, July 1 estimates versus final estimates for the marketing year.  Paragraphs below use their wheat example in a footnote, and then apply it to US corn production and ending stocks.  Shows a very large range for their projection, their individual estimate or "pegged" number is probably simply the midpoint (average) of their range.  Just another way of looking at their data.  For example, other things being equal, they're saying (?) they are 66.7% confident that US corn yield will be within 11.4% of 170.7 (which is a range of 19.5 bushels/acre, up or down from 170.7) -- and 90% confident, other things being equal, that US corn yield will be within 19.3% of 170.7 (which is a range of 32.9 bushels/acre, up or down from 170.7)(?).  I'm sure that's about as good as their data gets, yet how much "reliability" (as a farmer) do you really place in those numbers?  I know that's too large a range for me to "bank on" at this point.  And, I know they need at least a minimum number of sample years to achieve a "reliable" data set, probably at least 10 years, yet why are they starting with 1981/82, and not something more recent, or simply use the past 20 years, and how would that impact the table estimates and "reliability"?  Just curious, because there are some huge differences (generally speaking) when looking from 1981/82 to 2016/17.

 

Using US corn production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 11.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 19.3 percent. The average difference between the July projection and the final estimate is 583 million bushels, ranging from 12 million to 2190 million bushels. The July projection has been below the [final] estimate 20 times and above 16 times.

 

Using US corn ending stocks as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 49.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 84.0 percent. The average difference between the July projection and the final estimate is 471 million bushels, ranging from 11 million to 1840 million bushels. The July projection has been below the [final] estimate 16 times and above 20 times.

 

 

Here's same adaptations of the wheat footnote, for soybeans (1 metric ton of soybeans equals 36.74 bushels):

 

Using US soybean production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 7.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 12.2 percent. The average difference between the July projection and the final estimate is 3.6 million tons, ranging from .2 million to 11.7 million tons. The July projection has been below the [final] estimate 18 times and above 18 times.

 

Using US soybean ending stocks as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 54.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 93.0 percent. The average difference between the July projection and the final estimate is 2.7 million tons, ranging from 0 million to 8.2 million tons. The July projection has been below the [final] estimate 11 times and above 25 times.

 

P.S. -- I have never been and will never claim to be, a statistician.

 

PPS -- My confidence level in the "reliability" of July 1 reports, -0-.

 

 

 

Honored Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

Good analysis wcmo, better than any quoted above......... Most reports are similar but the quoted simpletons just look at the number and never think about the information in the report.

The more advanced our culture the less we know about the jobs we have.... and the less we care.

 

Even an auto mechanic these days cannot explain the advance timing of the car he works on but he can read a computer screen that teaches him what to do to set it.

 

 

 

beans in line with ideas

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Senior Contributor
Posts: 359
Registered: ‎05-16-2010

Re: Floor Talk July 12 (Report Day)

And then at some point in time they will tell us about the great record of being accurate they have.  Well I am reliably sure if I could have changed my answer multiple times and graded my own papers I could have been my class Valedictorian.