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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk July 14

At the close:

 

At the close, the Sep. corn futures settled 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.57 3/4, Dec. futures closed 5¢ lower at $3.64 3/4 per bushel. August soybean futures ended 39¢ lower at $10.83 3/4, while Nov. soybean futures finished 43¢ lower at $10.62. Sept. wheat futures ended 5 3/4¢ lower at $4.34. August soymeal futures ended $14.90 short ton lower at $373.20. August soyoil futures finished $0.06 lower at 30.67¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.78 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 134 points higher.

 

Mike North, President Commodity Risk Management Group, says that weather remains hot for the period of Jul 20-26, but is not gathering any additional momentum.  
“The old expression that the bull needs to be fed every day is coming into play.  No new news is problematic when trying to make a case for continuing a rally,” North says.  
The CME Group has announced margin adjustments that will raise the required capital for participants by 10-15%, North says.  
“As portfolio managers evaluate their positions, some contracts may need to come off in order to be properly capitalized.  That may explain the softer tone to what began as a stronger day,” North says.  
He adds, “Today is the last trade day for July futures.  Spreads have brought September contracts into alignment as we head into the last day of July trade.”
The noon model may offer some changes to weather outlook, North says.  
“Each update has traders on pins and needles.  Hot is the notion for now.  With soybeans tickling the lower end of the range and moving towards negative ground, some new life in weather will be necessary to keep the rally alive.”

 

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

At mid-session, the Sep. corn futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $3.67, Dec. futures are 4 3/4¢ higher at $3.74 per bushel. August soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $11.25, while Nov. soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $11.07. Sept. wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.41. August soymeal futures are $1.10 short ton higher at $389.20. August soyoil futures are $0.41 higher at 31.14¢.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.76 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 137 points higher.

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

 

At the open, the Sep. corn futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $3.70, Dec. futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.77 per bushel. August soybean futures are 9 1/4¢ higher at $11.32, while Nov. soybean futures are 10 1/2¢ higher at $11.15 3/4. Sept. wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $4.42. August soymeal futures are $4.10 short ton higher at $392.20. August soyoil futures are $0.35 higher at $31.08.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.62 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 115 points higher.

 

 

Mike

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Farmers seem to be less worried about the hot and dry weather that's forecast than the guys on Jackson Street in Chicago, or at least that's how it seems from talking to a few growers and traders recently. Is your corn made already? JEC said yesterday that some producers may be sitting on `the big one' and it's late enough in the game that even if (and that's a big IF) the hot, dry weather comes to fruition it likely won't hurt corn much. Beans, on the other hand, might be a different story. Anybody overly concerned at this point, or is this just something the bulls are pushing to get prices up? 

 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 2.3% higher
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 2% higher.

Dollar = down 0.4%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in overnight trading
World Markets = Global stocks rise along with oil prices, weaker dollar. 

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15 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

Tony, Tony, Tony.

 

I must have done a terrible job getting my point across yesterday.  An extended extreme hot spell will take a BIG chunk of the top end of yields.  Not hard at all to lose 50+ bpa if the next 4-5 weeks stay at the temps called for next week.  That is why I asked about August weather. That is why I said, Risk on. 

It is like the baseball game you lead all the way to the bottom of the 9th inning by 3...and then you give up the grand slam.  You still lose, don't care how many innings you were ahead.

 

Old enough to have seen it happen. 

 

How is the Texas heat affecting corn there? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

Corn has the best potential of being the biggest yield that we`ve raised, up to this point in time in the growing season.  Beans can look ugly but fool you in a good way yieldwise in the fall, but I`ve seen alot of beans cross country that are yellow from having wet feet for too long.  There`s a difference in beans coming back from stress in a drought and their ability to come back from being waterlogged.    i`m not talking my book here, I`d personally rather beans dropped a buck and gave it to corn  Smiley Happy

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

Ha yeah totally misunderstood you then. Sorry about that.

It's hot here, and we haven't had much rain in the past month or so, but we're in central Texas so that's pretty normal. We're in the process of potentially buying a house northeast of Austin and there's a big corn field right next door. Now, maybe it's because I'm from Nebraska and have spent most of my life in the Midwest, but the corn is short and stubby down here, not tall and thick like we have up north. Yields recently have been in the 130b-140b range in the good years. 

And when I go to the local farmers market, which is literally a guy on the side of the road with a truck full of vegetables, it doesn't taste as good. But I'm pretty sure I'm biased.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

I'm more worried about hail and wind than I am about heat for the corn.  The near-term heat forecasts have the overnight temps in the 60's.  If corn can cool off at night it seems to handle hot days better.  From here on out, growing conditions have to be bad for the corn not to be good.  The corn marketing train may have left the station.

 

Soybeans look good so far.  Not too weedy (with some significant exceptions).  Canopy.  Plenty of water so far.  No sprayers running for bugs or disease.   The steam's up on the soybean marketing train.  Is it ready to pull out of the station?  That's a hard thing to know.  We don't want to miss the train.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

You have never seen weather take 50BPA off USDA trend yield in the last 30 years becasue it simply hasnt happened.   

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

Progress is being made on the local grain reserve program...

 

 2016-07-14 10.01.24.jpg

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

A little missleading Kstate85,  and wrong

It definitely did in 2011, and again in 2012......

The question is not whether it did or not but did usda accept it or just keep using the future to pad the past...

 

You must be accepting the usda numbers as facts.... or not farming...... Weather always trims the crop.

Weather is not just rain...... We are sending you up some 102-104 temps for the next 10 days ...... enjoy... "heat units make grain"

 

The rocketing market in 2012 told the truth.... supplies were short by more than 50 bpa compared to the usda projections

 

And from the other perspective I have seen a rather sizeable sample of the crop loose more than 50bpa in an afternoon June 17, 2011.  A 240 bushel crop flashed to a 140 bushel crop in 117 degree heat and 40 mph wind... for a large section of the Sw.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

i guess i dont understand.    The worst the USDA has dropped the crop from trend is 24 bpa in August of 2012.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 14

KState,

 

Where did I say 50 bpa off trend?  I said take 50 bpa off, which meant the big yield potential out there now.  I need to draw pictures to explain what I mean....

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