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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

At the close:

At the close, the Sep. corn futures finished 5 3/4¢ lower at $4.35 1/4. Dec. corn futures finished 5 3/4¢ lower at $4.41 1/4.

Aug. soybean futures finished 14¢ lower at $8.87 3/4. November soybean futures ended 14¢ lower at $9.06.

Sep. wheat futures closed 1/4¢ lower at $5.07 1/2.



August soymeal futures settled $3.20 per short ton lower at $308.40.

  August soy oil futures closed $0.29 lower at 27.99¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.13 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 27 points lower.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that investors are leaning on this week’s reports for guidance.

“It’s been a lower volume day, with the selling, I guess, coming from the funds,” Scoville says.

Scoville adds, “The crop condition ratings, Monday, for corn and beans ticked up and we were expecting lower. The weather, this morning, indicated some showers and storms for SW Iowa and southern Nebraska that caught people expecting hot and dusty everywhere today. It will get hot now into the weekend, but it is supposed to warm up this week before cooling down again next week. We might chop around for the rest of this week, until we got a better handle on the weather,” Scoville says.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that USDA data and weather forecasts have been driving these markets for weeks.

“A couple of weeks ago we started to see buyers step into the market after the dramatic drop post Quarterly Stocks report and acreage report and on the heels of a hotter and drier forecast headed into the pollination window. Traders took this market higher and ahead of the WASDE last week took a risk off mood - afraid to have a position on given the USDA's last report 'stunt’,” O’Connell says.

She added, “After the WASDE proved to be somewhat benign, buyers immediately stepped in and took this market up against the $4.60 technical resistance, on Friday, and started to take some profit. Hot and dry weather continues to persist in the forecast and will likely hold this market together and invite further buying. Today, we ran up against $4.30 support and we managed to close 5 cents off of that,” O’Connell says.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $4.33. Dec. corn futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $4.39 1/4.

Aug. soybean futures are 11 3/4¢ lower at $8.90 3/4. November soybean futures are 12 1/2¢ lower at $9.07.

Sep. wheat futures are 2¢ lower at $5.05 3/4.



August soymeal futures are $3.30 per short ton lower at $308.30.

 August soy oil futures are $0.19 lower at 28.09¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.03 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 5 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 9:00am:

In early trading, the Sep. corn futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $4.32. Dec. corn futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $4.38 1/4.

Aug. soybean futures are 13 1/2¢ lower at $8.88 3/4. November soybean futures are 14 1/2¢ lower at $9.06.

Sep. wheat futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $5.02.



August soymeal futures are $4.10 per short ton lower at $307.50.

 August soy oil futures are $0.20 lower at 28.08¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is unchanged, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 2 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will largely be watching how widespread the hot and sticky weather will cause crop ratings to drop.

“The GFS weather model on Monday changed to show less heat and for only 5 days in about 30% of the central Corn Belt,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The U.S. soybean crop is in more trouble than the U.S. corn crop. In its weekly Crop Progress Report, Monday, the USDA noted that the U.S. corn crop conditions improved by 1% with 58% rated good to excellent, soybean ratings were also increased by 1% to 54% good to excellent ratings. Five percent (4 million acres) of soybeans have not yet emerged.”

 

Mike

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9 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

There is no reason besides pure stupidity that prices are down the last 2 days.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

Not sure on that one cbore, farmers have hedged over 2.5 Bil bu at this point according to the CFTC - COT data. Why do that if prices must go higher? And, the users have not bought it yet (otherwise it disappears off the of the report since it is used and no longer being hedged in Chicago.).  Just saying, we need to chew through all this stuff and that takes some time. 

At this point, no one knows, and certainly none of the big money believes, that this year is diffferent. Farmers complain every year and then yields "surprise". Even the NASS process requires bad news to be delayed until the October report (when they use FSA acreage cert numbers for the first time). 

Real question is why isn't corn down 20 if the weather is so good?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

Agree to disagree

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

IMO it is stupid and thievery.  What farmers do you know time, that are hedging grain that doesn’t exist?  Farmers do complain every year and yes yields have surprised and because of this market fix of suppression they never get paid.  Bad year good year it’s all the same to us.. break even or bust.  While others continue to benefit off of our success or failure just the same.  It’s a joke , weather market hilarious,  100 + in most of the belt and markets go down? Should be limit up especially since most didn’t get put in the ground to even stand a chance for half an average yield.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

Farmers are rarely surprised what their crops yield.   We know what is and what is not in our fields.   The talk of being surprised is only used by traders and market advisers because of what farmers have told them most of the growing season.   Sandbagging on just how good the crops are, is the only way farmers can try to level the playing field of the USDA who wants a plentiful and inexpensive food supply and puts out lofty numbers to suppress the prices. It's their game.  They know full well what cards they are dealing.  Their numbers are a moving target and never have to make sense or add up.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

 I agree tiger, blue-collar has their union the farmer as their crying episode. However I cannot forward contract one bushel of corn until I have an idea that I’m going to have cobs on the corn stocks and at this point it doesn’t look real positive. I never thought I would see it at this stage but This market is really starting to suck

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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Ask yourself, if ....

Ask yourself, if there's so much corn why is the basis 70 cents over here?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

Real question is why NASS/USDA don't use FSA acreage certifications until October?  I can see the delay if they were all hand-tallied, but they are not.  Using FSA acreage certifications in September should be no problem whatsoever.  August should be their goal.

And, on crop conditions ratings, how much do they account for crop progress, late planting?

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 16, 2019

Just got done talking with local fsa guy in county next to mine . He said that there county has 50,000 acres of prevent plant . Not sure of total farmland acres, but wow. And we’re in a pretty lucky spot in wcmn

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