Floor Talk July 16
At the close:
At the close, the September corn futures finished 1/2¢ higher at $3.41 3/4. December futures finished 1/2¢ higher at $3.55 1/4.
August soybean futures ended 10 3/43¢ higher at $8.29 1/2. November soybean futures closed 11 1/2¢ higher at $8.45 3/4.
September wheat futures closed 8 1/2¢ lower at $4.88 1/2.
August soymeal futures settled $3.10 per short ton higher at $329.10. August soy oil futures closed 0.33¢ lower at 27.64.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.65 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points higher.
At mid-session, the September corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.40. December futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.54.
August soybean futures are 13¢ higher at $8.31. November soybean futures are 14 1/4¢ higher at $8.48.
September wheat futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $4.89 3/4.
August soymeal futures are $5.30 per short ton higher at $331.30. August soy oil futures 0.24¢ lower at 27.73.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $3.00 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 8 points higher.
Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the farm markets are up on a rumor of trade negotiations.
"Grains are having a nice relief rally today lead by the soybean market with rumors that China, U.S. trade negotiations are in sight. Also, lower crop ratings are expected in today's report which would confirm the corn and bean crop could be as large as trade estimates," Roose says.
WxRisk.com reports that the cool-down starts today. "There is more rain again in the 1 to 5-day forecast and again in the 6 to 10-day forecast, with 1-2 inches of rain both weeks with seasonal or cooler-than-normal temps.
Both models suggest that August will have seasonal temps with more rain in the first two weeks of August," according to daily note to Kluis Advisors customers.
Scott Shellady, Managing Director TJM Europe LLP, says the soybean market will trade rumors until something solid in the news.
“Now today, we have had a small bounce back but this story is far from over,” Shellady says.
Shellady says that it’s important to keep in mind that the trade tariffs with China have done some real damage.
“We’ve gone from 1 year highs in the soybean market to 10 year lows. We’re seeing a 22% hit in farm revenue value for bean farmers, 18% hit in corn, although China does not import corn. That roughly equates to $20 billion,” Shellady says.
In early trading, the September corn futures are 3¢ higher at $3.44. December futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $3.58.
August soybean futures are 12 3/4¢ higher at $8.31. November soybean futures are 13 1/2¢ higher at $8.47.
September wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $4.95.
August soymeal futures are $5.70 per short ton higher at $331.70. August soy oil futures 0.19¢ lower at 27.78.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.93 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points higher.
Soybeans were lower overnight on rising supply and declining exports. The USDA last week lowered its outlook for exports by 250 million bushels to 2.04 billion while bumping its outlook for stockpiles at the end of the 2018-2019 marketing year that starts on Sept. 1 to 580 million bushels. That, along with the ongoing trade dispute with China, is weighing on prices again. Money managers weren't as bearish on soybeans as they reduced their net-short positions, though by only a small amount. Investors, however, pushed their bearish bets on corn to the highest level since January. In weather news, it's going to be hot in Oklahoma today with heat indexes around 109 degrees Fahrenheit. Check out today's 3 Big Things for all the details.
West Texas Intermediate = down 1.6%.
Brent Crude = down 1.8%
Dollar = down 0.2%.
Wall Street = U.S. stock mixed pre-market.
World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.
Re: Floor Talk July 16
Sadly, the big money is protected in the trade war with China. No US tariffs on cell phones, drugs (Pharma rules), not seeing China retaliate on military imports (their biggest import...soybeans are second).
Why try to win a trade war with the two biggest items, cell phones to the US and military to China off the list? Stupid question, Pharma, the Military complex, and tech...they run the game. How many hogs doesn't China already own in the US. China steals so many of our patents. Our check off dollars need to get this message to the public and quit sending magazines out to farmers preaching to the choir.
Trump, Grassley, and Ernest are welcome to my farm anytime to explain their farm policy from ethanol (Big Oil pulling more strings) to tariffs, to not taking on the healthcare complex and healthcare insurance. Follow the money.
Hopefully I still know the lessons of the 80's. We need so much done to trade imbalance and dollar manipulation by China, but leaving the big powerhouses off the table doesn't seem like we are very serious.
Life is still good, change what you can (watch your bins, this is not an easy summer for grain in the bin), turn off the news and enjoy the moments. And hopefully we are putting a bottom in these markets.