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Veteran Advisor
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Floor Talk July 18

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.77, while December futures settled 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.90 3/4. Aug. soybean futures settled 4 1/2¢ higher at $9.89 1/2, November soybean futures closed 4 1/4¢ higher at $10.01 3/4. September wheat futures closed 2 1/4¢ lower at $5.03 3/4. Dec. soy meal futures closed $1.70 per short ton higher at $323.50. Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.16 higher at 33.17¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.38 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 57 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are 6 3/4¢ higher at $3.81 3/4, while December futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $3.95 1/2. Aug. soybean futures are 10 1/2¢ higher at $9.95, November soybean futures are 10 1/2¢ higher at $10.08. September wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $5.08. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.80 per short ton higher at $332.30. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.34 higher at 33.78¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.28 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 88 points lower.

 

Mike

 

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At 9am:

In early trading, the Sept. corn futures are 11 1/2¢ higher at $3.86, while December futures are 12¢ higher at $4.00. Aug. soybean futures are 16 1/2¢ higher at $10.01, November soybean futures are 16 1/4¢ higher at $10.13. September wheat futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $5.13 3/4. Dec. soy meal futures are $4.80 per short ton higher at $334.30. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.40 higher at 33.84¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.61 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 59 points lower.

 

Mike

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

Mike,

I think you meant Sep was higher.

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

Jim,

 

Yes, I did. Thanks. I guess that I just have lower yield estimates on my mind. One yield estimating group has dropped their U.S. corn yield from 162.4 to 159.9 bushels per yield. That equated to 10.0 million metric tons.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

[ Edited ]

It is coming..... lower ratings seem to escalate lower in years that see damage.  

The late planting dates followed by 5 weeks of above average temperatures set us up for it and we will need record cool and wet august to hold this crop together.

 

What are the chances to that with the dry hot pattern in the north?

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

I don't know. But, since you mentioned it, I will find out.

 

Mike

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

159 from a USDA estimated 170 is a LOT! I think the market forgets just how good of a crop it is just to average 160.

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

Here is a simple farmer's recap.

 

Basis is widening for current month and will widen more for those who have corn under price later due this month.  The elevator/processor/mill  have no reason to pay up, sucker play every year.

 

Last years twitter forecasters said drought, drought,drought.  This year they say rain,rain rain.  They quote a lot of scripture, but I think God has weather plans all his own and He must not be telling.

 

 

The big carryover is a tough lid to crack on corn. BUT, the more steam builds, the bigger the reaction.  Dr. Copper and Oats are bullish. Lower dollar is also.  Hot/dry weather through August will produce a rally..market will have to unscrew the lid a little. Will the farmers just hold another year...plenty more tin cans going up-though more from necessity to capture basis and better prices than need to capacity. In this environment trying to keep all the revenue dollars at home.

 

Amazed how well a crop can look with so little rain in the last six weeks. Light spots are starting to signal what is coming though.

 

Grateful for some cloud cover today, anything to keep the temps down.

 

 

 

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

[ Edited ]

And I thought it was dry in my area.  Pastures here are gone, do doubt the same south of here. Spin: it was going to probably be chopped sometime anyway.

 

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=719651&mid=6132451#M6132451

 

Oh, to add to the problems.  If the USDA releases CRP for haying.  Problem, palmer is in the CRP.  Man made disaster. Do you think they would be smart enough to certify the CRP was palmer free before releasing for haying?   But, it only takes one plant, millions of seed.

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

sw,

 

The latest check shows maybe cooler temps and some rain for August.

 

Mike

 

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Re: Floor Talk July 18

I'll kiss ya if your right.