Floor Talk July 21
At the close:
At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 11 1/4¢ lower at $3.79 3/4, while December futures finished 11 1/4¢ lower at $3.93 1/2. Aug. soybean futures ended 4 1/4¢ lower at $10.09, November soybean futures closed 4 3/4¢ lower at $10.22. September wheat futures closed 6 1/2¢ lower at $4.99. Dec. soy meal futures settled $1.30 per short ton lower at $336.80. Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.18 lower at 34.27¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.28 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.
At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $3.82 3/4, while December futures are 8 1/2¢ lower at $3.96. Aug. soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $10.05, November soybean futures are 8¢ lower at $10.19. September wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $5.03. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.20 per short ton lower at $335.90. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.29 lower at 34.16¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.15 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 52 points lower.
Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity’s director of grains and energy, says that the market is reacting to rainfall.
“It’s as simple as some rainfall coming through Northern IA. Also, if you want to throw something else on top, the forecast pushes much of the extreme heat out of the Midwest after this Saturday,” Ward says.
Ward adds, “Our weather service has the extreme heat that we saw this week across the Central Midwest pushing south only effecting MO and KS, which is not good for those two states, but largely the heat moves south of Iowa.”
Looking out 6-10 days and 11-15 days, the latest weather models are not wet though, he says.
“So, we are still going to struggle for moisture, but cooler temps slows the decline of the crop, even though it will still decline,” Ward says.
For many this week, especially in southwest MN and IA, it is the best rain of the month, and in some cases the best rain in 2 months, he says.
“In my view, this is not a new lows scenario, just a healthy setback. Buyers will emerge on the break in price, but honestly a 6 cent pullback in soybeans is absolutely nothing. Corn down 7-8 cents is more significant, and it could pull back to the high $3.80’s on Dec 17 futures, but support will be offered as the private sector continues to lower their yield estimates, following Informa’s lead yesterday,” Ward says.
Look for lower ratings on Monday afternoon, and we’ll trade the weather again next week, he says.
In early trading, the Sept. corn futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $3.85, while December futures are 6¢ lower at $3.98. Aug. soybean futures are 6 3/4¢ lower at $10.06, November soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ lower at $10.20. September wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $5.08. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.00 per short ton lower at $336.10. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.17 lower at 33.80¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.46 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 87 points lower.
Corn and beans were lower overnight as rain is expected on the northern Midwest, which will bring some relief to areas that need precip, even as the heat dome remains parked over the center of the country. Much of Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Iowa and even North Dakota will get some rainfall today, the National Weather Service said. Anybody who's been paying attention, however, knows that while North Dakota needs moisture, the rest of those areas have mostly had ample precipitation so far this year. Prices are expected to chop around today, analysts said, as investors weigh the hot weather in much of the Corn Belt against rain in the north, though there's a healthy dose of profit-taking in the mix as many traders don't want to go into the weekend very long considering the uncertain weather outlook. Corn was down a nickel, beans were off by 6 cents and wheat was little changed. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things at http://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-july-21
Here's what happened overnight:
Brent Crude Oil = down 0.9%
West Texas Intermediate = down 1.1%
Dollar = down 0.2%.
Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading.
World Markets = Global stocks lower amid political strife.
Re: Floor Talk July 21
Here in southern Wi. the rain is not going to help anything. It is going to hurt us. 4 to 7 inches with 70 to 80 mph winds Wed night with another storm setting up the same way forcast for tonight. What are you Minn. and Iowa guys doing to make these storms so angry?
Re: Floor Talk July 21
Thursday, September futures closed 8 1⁄2 higher after trading 2 lower in the overnight and 10 higher during the day session. Funds bought 12,000 contracts. In the last week, funds have bought an estimated 36,000 contracts and rallied CZ 21 cents. The weather forecast continues to show increased chances of rain and moderating temperatures in the heart of the corn belt, but leaving the western third with expanding areas of drought. We did see an increase in farmer selling as we approached $4.05. A lot of offers are coming in around the $4.15 area. Resistance in CU is $3.93 and then $4.00. Support is $3.80 and then $3.74. Basis is steady in the western corn belt. As mentioned, farmer selling has picked up as we rallied above $4.00 toward the $4.05 in CZ and we anticipate some pressure in basis for both the old crop and new crop in weeks to come. The trade is trading a 167 yield now, but that still leaves carryout around the 2 billion bushel. Well followed Informa has lowered their yield to 166.2. Overnight unexpected rains developed over Iowa and Illinois giving some of those driest areas beneficial rains. This pressured the market.
DURRENTLY corn is -6.5 Sept