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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

At the close:

At the close, the Sep. corn futures finished 8 1/2¢ lower at $4.22 1/4. Dec. corn futures closed 9¢ lower at $4.26 3/4.

Aug. soybean futures settled 13 1/4¢ lower at $8.88 1/4. November soybean futures finished 13 1/2¢ lower at $9.05 3/4.

Sep. wheat futures closed 15 1/4¢ lower at $4.87 1/4.



August soymeal futures settled $2.80 per short ton lower at $308.40.

 August soy oil futures finished $0.37 lower at 27.73¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.46 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points lower.

Mike

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At 11:00am:

At midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $4.23. Dec. corn futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $4.28.

Aug. soybean futures are 10 3/4¢ lower at $8.90 3/4. November soybean futures are 10 3/4¢ lower at $9.08 1/2.

Sep. wheat futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $4.96 1/4.



August soymeal futures are $2.20 per short ton lower at $309.00. 

August soy oil futures are $0.31 lower at 27.79¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.62 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that beautiful weather is reflected in lower markets.

“We saw a really nice run on Friday as rumors were circulating that China may step into the market and buy U.S. ag products. Turns out that was only chatter. The market seems very caught in a sideways range here. Weather, this week, appears non-threatening, with mild temps across most of the Corn Belt and most getting ample rain last week.”

She added, “Extended forecast does point towards higher temps and more rain in the coming weeks, but the market seems content to deal with it as it comes. Pollination window will be extremely wide this year. I would suspect that we stay in this rangebound market until the Aug 12 report, as the market looks for some direction. Beans seem content to trade a range as well, with that market eyeing forecasts for the end of the August,” O’Connell says.

Mike

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At 8:50am:

In early trading, the Sep. corn futures are 5 3/4¢ lower at $4.25. Dec. corn futures are 6 1/2¢ lower at $4.29 1/4.

Aug. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $8.98 3/4. November soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $9.16 1/2.

Sep. wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $5.00 1/2.



August soymeal futures are $0.60 per short ton lower at $310.60.

 August soy oil futures are $0.02 higher at 28.12¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.27 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the investors will be eyeing the USDA Crop Progress Report Monday.

“The USDA Crop Progress report today will show corn and soybean ratings steady to 1% higher than last week. The US crop is about 2 weeks behind normal and it may be August before 50% of the US corn has tasseled,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “Watch the short-term forecast for this week. It now looks like most of the central Corn Belt will return to normal temps with some rain through Friday. This is what the corn crop needs, but may be a little negative for prices.”

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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12 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

2 weeks behind normal?  I think you mean 2 months.   June and July planting vs. April and May is months not weeks Wow.  

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

tell Al he needs to get out more there may be spots 2 weeks behind but that is NOT the norm and don't forget to ask the big question how much didn't get planted today is the deadline to report

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

I have a question... Can the Chinese go long on a whole bunch of soybean contracts , let the contracts expire and actually take delivery of the physical beans. Without the beans showing up in export sales? If possible it would be awful easy for them to release rumors that talks have stalled and drive the prices down and start the whole process over.  Sue Martin was on market to market talking about this. Seems possible because do we really know who “the funds” are?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

All I know is the "terminals" won't let us do it.  But if the congressman who is getting her funding from the folks who profit from china trade calls ......... it can happen.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

I’m guessing that China has been doing this for a long time. 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

This is such an old urban legend. Certainly, they could get ownership this way, but they have to get them out of the country and that is reported by the loading facility as shipments. Shipments are behind noraml as a percent of sales due to river issues, so bottom line is this is a ridiculous story. 

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

But by driving the market down and getting cheap beans to feed there Smithfield hogs . Does any of those beans show up if they let the contracts expire and take delivery. My whole thought is if it doesn’t show up how does the USDA know what supply is out there. And where does it show up?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

Time,   it is easier to get it out of the country ........... consider ..... isn't it possible to get the grain out of the country simply by a paper trade, since the US presence in storage can be traded for grain outside the country if both are managed or owned by the same international grain marketing firms.......  It is really no different than our our increased sales to Vietnam while we decrease China sales.  The resale or remarking is very difficult to document.  

After all-- the grain even stored in the US is not necessarily being stored by US companies but actually by international grain brokering firms..

I been trying to change my "nationalist" marketing thoughts.  I am under the idea that my bushels are part of the world supply the moment they leave my truck or combine.  I think our old rules of trade and hedging don't apply even to me any more.  Definitely for the worlds largest buyer.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, July 22, 2019

sw363535,

I'll go a step further and say that I think your beans are part of the world supply even before they leave your farm. That is to say that when you report your acres, the marketwatchers around the world are calculating your acreage mix into the world supply/demand sheets.

 

Just a thought.

 

Mike

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