Floor Talk July 23
At the close:
At the close, the Sept. corn futures settled 1/2 of a cent higher at $4.03 1/4, Dec corn futures finished 1/4 of a cent higher at $4.13 1/4.
Aug. soybean futures finished 10 3/4 cents lower at $10.10. Nov. soybean futures finished 15 cents lower at $9.80 1/2.
Sept. wheat futures closed 4 3/4 cents higher at $5.21 1/2.
Aug. soymeal futures finished $4.50 per short ton lower at $359.00. Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.16 lower at $31.19.
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.87 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 144 points lower.
At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are trading 4 cents lower at $3.98 3/4, Dec corn futures are 4 1/4 cents lower at $4.09 1/4.
Aug. soybean futures are trading 11 1/2 cents lower at $10.09 1/4. Nov. soybean futures are trading 14 1/4 cents lower at $9.81 1/2.
Sept. wheat futures are unchanged at $5.16.
Aug. soymeal futures are trading $7.40 per short ton lower at $356.10. Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.10 higher at $31.45.
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.09 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 102 points lower.
Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC and CME Group floor trader, says the market drop is a result of the weather outlook. “Beans turned south on improved long term weather. I disagree with the move and spreads say the drop will not hold,” Pierce says.
Corn is going to hold right at $4.00 through tomorrow's expiration, …he says. “Next week, I expect another down draft as weak longs take cover with improving weather,” he says.
Wheat is seeing spread trading strength, as quality issues continue to weigh on production totals, he says. “Vomatoxin an expanding problem. It’s now been found in IL, IN, OH, ID, OK, KS and MO,” Pierce says.
Also, separate from the weekly report, the USDA announced fresh soybean sales Thursday:
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
--Export sales of 180,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2015/2016 marketing year; and
--Export sales of 40,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to Venezuela during the 2014/2015 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1 and soybean oil began Oct. 1.
If you missed it (like I did), here is a summary of the USDA Weekly Export Sales report Thursday:
For the 2014/15 marketing year we sold just 223,400 MT or 8.8 million bushels. This number was 33% below last week and 54% behind the 4-week average. Top sales went to Columbia with 110k MT, Japan for 99.2k and Portugal taking 83.2k. For the 15/16 crop year sales were not much better at 311,400 MT with Japan taking nearly half of that at 147.3k MT and Mexico at 105.2k. 2014/15 beans sales remain in the positive column with 80,800 MT or 2.97 million bushels. That was actually up 78% from last week. 2015/16 sales remain tepid with a total of 241,800 MT or 8.88 million bushels. Top sales were to Mexico for 74.8k MT, China for a mere 63k and unknown destinations at 55k. If there was a bright spot this week it was in wheat were we sold 502,800 MT or 18.48 million bushels. Of this Chile bought 67.8k MT, China 60.7k and the Philippines 57.2k.
At the open:
At the open, the Sept. corn futures are trading 1 cent lower at $4.01, Dec corn futures are 1 cent lower at $4.12.
Aug. soybean futures are trading 2 cents higher at $10.22. Nov. soybean futures are trading unchanged at $9.96.
Sept. wheat futures are 4 cents higher at $5.21.
Aug. soymeal futures are trading $1.20 per short ton lower at $362.30. Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.04 higher at $31.39.
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.10 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 12 points lower.
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.13 lower.
Wall Street = Seen higher, with eyes on earnings, and rate hike talk.
World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.
More in a minute,
Re: Floor Talk July 23
The local ethanol plant has raised their basis from plus .02 to plus .16 in the last several days. Could it be that a few bins are getting empty? Or are farmers waiting for that last ditch rally? I do know that I won't be needing as much bin space for my crops this fall.
I did read today that a market analyst believes that an above trendline yield in corn nationwide is still likely. No......I am not making that up.
Re: Floor Talk July 23
I can't get on board with above trend line at this time. In all likelihood the crop will be bigger than most farmers are willing to admit though. It all depends on weather from here on out. If we get some timely rains things will stabilize and the really good crops will get even better going down the stretch. If we go warm and dry the poorer crops will deteriorate even more and the really good crops will lose a little cream off the crop. At this time I still see the corn crop a little above 160. Too many market anylysts and others can drive down the interstates now and see really green crops flying by. In most cases they can see damage in othe parts of the fields. This is going to continue to work against the market until harvest can prove different. I spoke with someone yesterday that drove from St. Louis to Northern Illinois on I55 and I39. They were amazed at how awesome the crops looked! We all know there have been plenty of issues in those areas but flying down the road at 70 mph you don't notice them. Keep in mind this was from someone who is not a farmer. This is what we are up against.