Floor Talk July 24

[marketeye]

ALERT: Renewable Fuel Standard ruling is imminent, according to people close to the matter. The word is that the RFS could offer slight expansion for ethanol. We'll report the ruling as soon as it is available.

Here is a story about this topic by Dan Looker, Agriculture.com's Business Editor.

Final RFS Rule Soon

Mike

-------

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 1 1/4 cents lower at $3.69.

Nov. soybean futures closed 8 1/4 cents higher at $10.84.

Sep. wheat futures end 2 cents lower at $5.28.

The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $2.70 per short ton higher at $350.00. Dec. soyoil futures finish unchanged at $36.35.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.93 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points lower.

Mike

----------------

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/4 cents lower at $3.69.

Nov. soybean futures are trading 13 1/4 cents higher at $10.89.

Sep. wheat futures are 3 1/2 cents higher at $5.34.

The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.30 per short ton higher at $352.60. Dec. soyoil futures trade $0.08 higher at $36.43.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.45 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.

After a 30 cent bounce in bean futures prices, 12 cent bounce in the wheat and 6 cent bounce in corn, sellers appeared as grain futures trade resumed at 8:30 am and have since taken most of the price improvement out of the beans and pushed corn and wheat prices lower. Wheat is up slightly, at mid-day.
Helen Pound, Sr. Futures Market Specialist, says some air has been taken out of the inflated start to trading Thursday.
"Although weekly bean and corn export sales were better than expected, dramatic increases in barge and rail freight costs resulting in escalating US export basis offers are expected to make US grains uncompetitive in the world market going forward," Pound told customers in a daily wire.

Mike

-------------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents higher at $3.74.

Nov. soybean futures are trading 21 3/4 cents higher at $10.98.

Sep. wheat futures are 9 cents higher at $5.39.

The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $6.60 per short ton higher at $353.90. Dec. soyoil futures trade $0.35 higher at $36.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.02 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points higher.

 Mike

-----------

At 8am:

WOW! Look at the demand that checks in on the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report:

Wheat=  551,700 metric tons  vs. the trade's expectations of between 350,000-550,000 metric tons

Corn= 1.434 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of between 400,000-900,000 metric tons

Soybeans= 2.677 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of between 250,000-800,000 metric tons

Soybean meal=  442,800 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of between 150,000-300,000 metric tons.

Mike

------------

At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 12-14 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.67 per barrel lower.
Dollar=lower.

Wall Street=Seen higher as earnings reports keep coming. Caterpillar, Ford beat the street Thursday. GM earnings fall sharply due to recalls.

World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly lower.

More in a minute,

Mike  

[lsc76cat]

Too many times people want to shoot the messenger.

This morning Mike deserves an ATTABOY!!

We could sure use a rain.  Not that I miss the mosquitoes or mowing lawn but the beans are flowering and the corn is tasselled.

Good time for a drink.

[marketeye]

lsc76cat,

Thank God I have nine lives. 🙂

Nice rally, huh? I ordered it for you guys/gals. Commercial interest is finally rewarding this market for falling so much. By the way, is anybody buying 'calls' yet? If so, what is your strategy (besides trying to make money), if you don't mind sharing?

Mike

[giolucas]

Mike,

Make the rally last for a month and you will get more than ATTABOY, maybe a house or two. 🙂

[marketeye]

giolucas,

Here's some fodder for the soybean bulls. My co-worker wrote this story, yesterday, and if you'll notice buried at the bottom is a quote from a plant pathologist that says SDS has been detected, already.

Check it out: Crop Scouting Season Is Here.

Mike

[c-x-1]

Mike, somma the market participants and producers might also have been/still be on the verge of  SDS

[glenlivet18]

Big movements and big volume today in the soy.  Love July.  I'm long.

[fbf2574789]

 predicts Allendale, saying yields will total 174.1 bushels/acre.

[marketeye]

First half of August weather looks crop favorable. Models can change a lot between now and then, but the market will be trading this now not then:

Temperature outlook on the left (below normal), precipitation on the right (slightly above normal).

[CitiFarmer]

A look at a BEAR CASE Corn situation and a LESS BEARISH Case Scenario:

I ran this spreadsheet to see if I could arrive at a figure reaching the Allendale level. These are not my final numbers or from Allendale but do arrive at the 174.1 yield.

2014 CORN PRODUCTION Prepared on: 7/24/2014 based on USDA report acres -VERY HIGH YIELDS

A. STATE, PLANTED, % HARVEST, ACRES, YIELD, PRODUCTION, % OF TOTAL, FOOTNOTE

1. AL 340.0 92.65% 315.0 125.0 39,375 0.27%
2 AZ 75.0 56.00% 42.0 195.0 8,190 0.06%
3. AR 580.0 98.28% 570.0 180.0 102,600 0.70%
4. CA 520.0 21.15% 110.0 185.0 20,350 0.14%
5. CO 1,170.0 82.05% 960.0 165.0 158,400 1.09% Record by 5
6. CN 26.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
7. DE 175.0 97.14% 170.0 135.0 22,950 0.16%
8. FL 85.0 58.82% 50.0 110.0 5,500 0.04%
9. GA 380.0 88.16% 335.0 160.0 53,600 0.37%
10. ID 340.0 32.35% 110.0 185.0 20,350 0.14%
11. IL 12,000.0 98.33% 11,800.0 195.0 2,301,000 15.76% Record by 10
12. IN 6,000.0 97.50% 5,850.0 190.0 1,111,500 7.61% Record by 8
13. IA 13,600.0 97.06% 13,200.0 185.0 2,442,000 16.73% Record = 182 in 09
14. KS 4,100.0 91.46% 3,750.0 160.0 600,000 4.11% Record = 155 in 09
15. KY 1,550.0 93.55% 1,450.0 155.0 224,750 1.54%
16. LA 420.0 97.62% 410.0 180.0 73,800 0.51%
17. ME 30.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
18. MD 500.0 88.00% 440.0 135.0 59,400 0.41%
19. MA 18.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
20. MI 2,550.0 87.84% 2,240.0 160.0 358,400 2.46%
21. MN 8,500.0 94.12% 8,000.0 180.0 1,440,000 9.86% Record = 177 in 2010
22. MS 540.0 96.30% 520.0 160.0 83,200 0.57%
23. MO 3,500.0 95.14% 3,330.0 170.0 566,100 3.88% Record by 8
24. MT 120.0 55.00% 66.0 130.0 8,580 0.06%
25. NE 9,300.0 94.09% 8,750.0 180.0 1,575,000 10.79% Record = 178 in 2009
26. NV 5.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
27. NH 15.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
28. NJ 85.0 88.24% 75.0 135.0 10,125 0.07%
29. NM 100.0 40.00% 40.0 180.0 7,200 0.05%
30. NY 1,160.0 56.90% 660.0 145.0 95,700 0.66%
31. NC 860.0 93.02% 800.0 130.0 104,000 0.71%
32. ND 3,050.0 93.44% 2,850.0 140.0 399,000 2.73% Record by 8
33. OH 3,700.0 94.05% 3,480.0 180.0 626,400 4.29% Record = 177 in 2013
34. OK 320.0 84.38% 270.0 140.0 37,800 0.26%
35. OR 70.0 57.14% 40.0 200.0 8,000 0.05%
36. PA 1,460.0 68.49% 1,000.0 150.0 150,000 1.03%
37. RI 2.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
38. SC 295.0 94.92% 280.0 125.0 35,000 0.24%
39. SD 5,900.0 93.22% 5,500.0 150.0 825,000 5.65% Record = 153
40. TN 880.0 93.18% 820.0 150.0 123,000 0.84%
41. TX 2,100.0 85.71% 1,800.0 160.0 288,000 1.97%
42. UT 92.0 31.52% 29.0 165.0 4,785 0.03%
43. VT 85.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
44. VA 500.0 74.00% 370.0 140.0 51,800 0.35%
45. WA 205.0 56.10% 115.0 210.0 24,150 0.17%
46. WV 53.0 69.81% 37.0 135.0 4,995 0.03%
47. WI 4,200.0 75.00% 3,150.0 165.0 519,750 3.56% Record by 3
48. WY 85.0 64.71% 55.0 135.0 7,425 0.05%

B. TOTALS 91,641.0 91.49% 83,839.0 174.1 14,597,175 100.00% prevented> 0

Here is a review using some prevented planting acres. Again, not what I expect to see in the August Crop report.

2014 CORN PRODUCTION Prepared on: 7/24/2014 based on USDA report acres with pp acres

A. STATE, PLANTED, % HARVEST, ACRES, YIELD, PRODUCTION, % OF TOTAL, FOOTNOTE, PP acres

1. AL 340.0 92.65% 315.0 125.0 39,375 0.29%
2 AZ 75.0 56.00% 42.0 195.0 8,190 0.06%
3. AR 580.0 98.28% 570.0 180.0 102,600 0.75%
4. CA 520.0 21.15% 110.0 185.0 20,350 0.15%
5. CO 1,170.0 82.05% 960.0 160.0 153,600 1.12% = Record
6. CN 26.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
7. DE 175.0 97.14% 170.0 135.0 22,950 0.17%
8. FL 85.0 58.82% 50.0 110.0 5,500 0.04%
9. GA 380.0 88.16% 335.0 160.0 53,600 0.39%
10. ID 340.0 32.35% 110.0 185.0 20,350 0.15%
11. IL 12,000.0 98.33% 11,800.0 185.0 2,183,000 15.94% Record by 5
12. IN 6,000.0 97.50% 5,850.0 180.0 1,053,000 7.69% Record by 3
13. IA 13,400.0 97.39% 13,050.0 180.0 2,349,00017.15% Record = 182 in 09 -200
14. KS 4,100.0 91.46% 3,750.0 150.0 562,500 4.11% Record = 155 in 09
15. KY 1,550.0 93.55% 1,450.0 150.0 217,500 1.59%
16. LA 420.0 97.62% 410.0 175.0 71,750 0.52%
17. ME 30.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
18. MD 500.0 88.00% 440.0 135.0 59,400 0.43%
19. MA 18.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
20. MI 2,450.0 87.76% 2,150.0 150.0 322,500 2.35% -100
21. MN 8,050.0 94.72% 7,625.0 160.0 1,220,000 8.91% Record = 177 in 2010 -450
22. MS 540.0 96.30% 520.0 160.0 83,200 0.61%
23. MO 3,500.0 95.14% 3,330.0 170.0 566,100 4.13% Record by 8
24. MT 120.0 55.00% 66.0 130.0 8,580 0.06%
25. NE 9,300.0 94.09% 8,750.0 168.0 1,470,000 10.73% Record = 178 in 2009
26. NV 5.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
27. NH 15.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
28. NJ 85.0 88.24% 75.0 135.0 10,125 0.07%
29. NM 100.0 40.00% 40.0 180.0 7,200 0.05%
30. NY 1,160.0 56.90% 660.0 145.0 95,700 0.70%
31. NC 860.0 93.02% 800.0 130.0 104,000 0.76%
32. ND 2,900.0 92.24% 2,675.0 130.0 347,750 2.54% -150
33. OH 3,700.0 94.05% 3,480.0 175.0 609,000 4.45% Record = 177 in 2013
34. OK 320.0 84.38% 270.0 140.0 37,800 0.28%
35. OR 70.0 57.14% 40.0 200.0 8,000 0.06%
36. PA 1,460.0 68.49% 1,000.0 150.0 150,000 1.10%
37. RI 2.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
38. SC 295.0 94.92% 280.0 125.0 35,000 0.26%
39. SD 5,900.0 93.22% 5,500.0 135.0 742,500 5.42% Record 153 in 2009
40. TN 880.0 93.18% 820.0 145.0 118,900 0.87%
41. TX 2,100.0 85.71% 1,800.0 150.0 270,000 1.97%
42. UT 92.0 31.52% 29.0 165.0 4,785 0.03%
43. VT 85.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
44. VA 500.0 74.00% 370.0 140.0 51,800 0.38%
45. WA 205.0 56.10% 115.0 210.0 24,150 0.18%
46. WV 53.0 69.81% 37.0 135.0 4,995 0.04%
47. WI 4,200.0 75.00% 3,150.0 150.0 472,500 3.45%
48. WY 85.0 64.71% 55.0 135.0 7,425 0.05%

B. TOTALS 90,741.0 91.52% 83,049.0 164.9 13,694,675 100.00% pp of >> -900

Quite a range but a case could be made for either situation.  We still have a lot of the growing season left so we shall see where we end up. Right now, the market is trading close to the mid point of these figures - in my opinion. What say you?