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Registered: ‎09-09-2014

Floor Talk July 26

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 4¢ higher at $3.72, while December futures finished 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.86. Aug. soybean futures closed 7 1/4¢ higher at $9.88 3/4, November soybean futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $10.00. September wheat futures ended 3 3/4¢ higher at $4.77. Dec. soy meal futures ended $1.60 per short ton higher at $326.50. Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.27 higher at 34.24¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.86 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 108 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.70, while December futures are 1¢ higher at $3.83. Aug. soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $9.94, November soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $10.01. September wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.77. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.60 per short ton higher at $327.50. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.16 higher at 34.13¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.77 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 93 points higher.

 

--Brian A. Rydlund, CHS Hedging Market Analyst, says that today’s move higher is nothing more than a breather.
“We beat things up pretty good in the past few sessions. It’s hard to press corn under $3.75, basis December 2017 futures,” Rydlund says.

 

He adds, “The cash soybean markets have been firm (basis improving) and spreads have snugged up. Neither of those two things allow futures to sell off much more.”

 

Looking out longer term, grain prices could get cheaper if these forecasts roll true with no extreme heat in sight, Rydlund says.
“Rallies may be limited and South America has more to sell. So, their farmers will sell at cheaper levels and that’s not good for U.S. prices,” Rydlund says.

--Mike North, President Commodity Risk Management Group, says that higher markets are a result of technical support that kicked in, amid a lack of fundamental stories.  

 

“Crop conditions have deteriorated, but in line with long term averages.  With little to talk about until the August WASDE, traders used the July low in soybeans and long standing support in corn as a place to buy orders.  More of this type of trade is expected in the vacuum of news until the Aug 10 report release,” North says.

 

Mike

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At 11:10am:

U.S. Ethanol weekly production drops.

 

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 1.012 million barrels per day (b/d)—or 42.50 million gallons daily. That is down 14,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production decreased to 1.015 million b/d for an annualized rate of 15.56 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol were 21.5 million barrels. That is a 2.7% decrease from last week.

 

Mike

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At 9:15am:

In early trading, the Sept. corn futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.70, while December futures are 1¢ higher at $3.83. Aug. soybean futures are 5¢ higher at $9.86, November soybean futures are 5¢ higher at $9.97. September wheat futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $4.79 1/2. Dec. soy meal futures are $1.00 per short ton higher at $325.90. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.17 higher at 34.14¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.33 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 126 points higher.

 

 

Mike

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Corn, wheat and beans were all higher in overnight trading after yesterday's selloff as investors believe there's still a lot of damage from hot, dry weather in the northern and some of the central Plains. Much of North Dakota's still in `extreme' or `exceptional' drought so yesterday's selloff may have been overdone, according to analysts. Corn was up a penny, wheat gained 5-6 cents and beans added 4 cents in overnight trading. The spring wheat tour kicked off yesterday and, as expected, yields weren't as good as last year even in eastern North Dakota where the bulk of the state's rain has fallen this year. The tour moves west into areas that have seen little or no rain at all in the past few months. In weather news, it's again extremely hot in Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, etc. etc etc. -- there seems to be a pattern here -- while it's too wet in much of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. The weather maps show heat advisories and flood warnings in those respective areas. Check out the details in today's 3 Big Things at http://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-july-26
 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = up 0.4%

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.7%

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher on positive economic data.