Floor Talk, July 29, 2019
At the close, the Sep. corn futures finished 2 1/2¢ higher at $4.17. Dec. corn futures ended 2 1/2¢ higher at $4.27.
Aug. soybean futures closed 2 1/2¢ higher at $8.85 1/4. November soybean futures closed 3 1/4¢ higher at $9.04 1/2.
Sep. wheat futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $5.03 3/4.
December soymeal futures closed $1.80 per short ton higher at $311.50. December soy oil futures closed $0.05 lower at 28.97¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.63 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 41 points higher.
USDA's Weekly Export Inspection shows the highest soybean weekly number since February.
Soybean export inspections totaled 1.031 million tonnes, for week ending July 25, highest since February 21. The running total for 2018/19 marketing year is 23% behind a year ago, and is only 87% of the USDA's forecast for the year vs a 5-year avg of 93%.
What say you?
At midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.16. Dec. corn futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.26 1/4.
Aug. soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $8.86 1/4. November soybean futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $9.04 1/2.
Sep. wheat futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $5.01 3/4.
December soymeal futures are $1.70 per short ton higher at $311.40. December soy oil futures are $0.03 higher at 29.05¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.08 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 67 points higher.
Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platts, head of grain and oilseed analytics, says that the markets are up, due to dryness concerns in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
“After today’s weather system moves through, there appears to be little chance of more precipitation over the next 10 days. Temperatures do not pose much of a threat, but with poor planting conditions and resulting shallow roots we did see some rolling of corn and cupping in beans late last week. Corn is also benefiting from a small pop in wheat prices. Overall the markets seem content to bide their time for the next two weeks until the August WASDE,” Meyer says.
In early trading, the Sep. corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $4.17. Dec. corn futures are 3¢ higher at $4.27.
Aug. soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $8.85. November soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $9.03 1/2.
Sep. wheat futures are 6 3/4¢ higher at $5.02 3/4.
December soymeal futures are $0.50 per short ton higher at $310.20. December soy oil futures are $0.03 higher at 29.05¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 25 points higher.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that all eyes are on today’s USDA Crop Progress Report.
“Over the weekend, rain was limited to the northern Corn Belt. The USDA Crop Progress report today will show corn and soybean ratings about 1% lower than last week. The central Corn Belt--from Des Moines to Lafayette, Indiana--has turned dry,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
Kluis added, “Is it time for the market pattern to change? For the last five weeks, the high has come in on Monday or Tuesday, and the low on Thursday or Friday. As long as that pattern continues, prices will trend lower. If the low comes in early in this week and prices close on the high for the week, then odds are good an important secondary low will be in place.”
Re:600,000 of that 1 million tonnes of soybeans went to China.
600,000 of that million tonnes of soybeans went to China. With an est. 4.1 M left to ship to China & shipping 0,6 M per week, there will be about 2 M unshipped by the end of the market year.
Likewise, of the 48.6 M total commitments to date at the current rate of 1 M per week, we'll have about 4 M total not shipped by the end of the market year.
That suggests that this year's soybean exports will be about 44.5 M tonnes, compared to 57 & 51.7 in '16-17 and '17-18 respectively.
The fact that we're only down about 20% from normal is pretty good, all things considered, but we sure had to take a beating on price to do it.
Re: Exactly, the Chinese have got the best of both worlds.
Last year the Chinese had to pay a stiff premium to get enough Brazilian beans but not this year.
This year, the Chinese only need to buy just enough cheap US beans to keep the price of Brazilian beans down to the US price and yet not enough US beans to put any real pressure on US beans.