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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

MT - can't agree with you more. No way is there the kind of yield that Mikes agonamist came up with. It's the issues we've been talking about all along. I don't care how good things look from the road. Last year, like I posted once before, I had 190-200 bu corn around the perimeter, 20 rows in it dropped to 130. And the issues that Mike saw in the slide show, I saw. Which is why I've been so adamant about this crop size. Never was going to be 14bbl. I have us now just over 12bbl. Bit that doesn't include losses from a freeze. The way I see it now, we stand to lose 30% of the yield on corn in the East 2/3 of ND, all of MN, 80% of WI, 40% of IA, and 20% of MI due to frost the middle of Sept. Beans in the area probably toast, and the corn that's left will be the 40-40-40 stuff. I don't have the ability here to do the math, I'm looking at what the weather has been and what it looks to be heading for. More later.

Jen
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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Good show Mike -- Nice work ! -- maybe next time you can have a Doom and gloom   agronomist and end of the world slide show with it --- lol

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

agree with ecin thanks mike ------------------- That corn looks stressy to me -------- Hope he's not planning for 220 on that field!

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Good discussion today. Mike it was mentioned that root ball was affected with sidewall compaction. Did the guy plant in less than ideal conditions? And not to start a color war here but did he use a Deere planter?
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

You could turn blue and the trade does not care about weather worries right now and production.  This price is going down.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

sorry gio but you point out the disconnect in chicago and why many producers were anxious for electronic trading.

 

The producers care about their production potential --------- hard to market if you don't know what you have to market.

 

The end user cares about the supply of the commodity for the coming winter -------------- cost and availability of goods is always important

 

But as you say the "trade" doesn't care.  --------- The day will come when contracted production will look good to folks on both ends.  It already does consume a fair amount of production.  And it will grow as the number of producers and end users continue to decline. 

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

For what it's worth, there are some people that can be confronted with reality and still deny it. Maybe if, and hope not, there is a significant freeze event, and both soy and corn yields are so pathetic that even the wizards of smart notice, then there may be a rally. Unless, that is, they already know there is a real possibility of such an event and are perfectly content letting it settle another 40 cents on nc corn and beans. If I was an gambling man, I'd take an option after it drops a while longer and start to see what the end of August looks like.

Semper Fi
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Frontseat, this is not just about a frost event. Like you said, some people can be confronted with reality and still deny it. Do you farm? Do you know anything about farming. A comment like that referring to the fact that we have this huge crop in the bin tells me you aren't a farmer, or, if you are, don't get around much. I'm sorry, but corn still needs rain from the sky once in a while to make a bumper crop. The crop needs to go into the ground in right conditions to make a bumper crop. Just those two factors alone this year took the top off this crop long ago. If your certain the market is going down another 40 cents, why not sell the market if you're so confident. I'd git er done now, before we go lower. As for me, I see what the corn was, is, probably will be and what the weather forecasts look like. Go for it....

Jen
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

I go there when I'm using my "almost retired" hat-------------- and consider the cost of travel to vegas.

 

Speaking of long shots.  You can't imagine how long it has been waiting for this-------------

 

maps.jpg
I know that map on the lower right is a distorted lie ----------------------- but I am going to scrap book it anyway.
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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Jen
First of all, you are missing the point entirely about the size of the crop. It isn't there, never was going to be a record crop because it didn't get planted on time in Minnesota, Wisconsin and a big chunk of Iowa . Your concerns of lack of rainfall are valid and rightly so. My point is that due to late planting, lack of efficient gdu's are every bit as a threat. You can have rain every day from here until Thanksgiving and what good is it if its only in the 70's and freezes in September? That's my point.
As to your apparent concern for my lack of qualifications, spending 40 years in Ag retail and farming should suffice. And based on your geography I'm guessing you are on lighter soil?
Best wishes for your health.

Semper Fi
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