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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Yeah, they're showing more precip than I, but they look right on the temps. It agrees with what I see on the maps. You should've posted the 8-14 day also, as it shows the cool even farther south.

Jen
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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Frontseat, my apologies. I read what you were saying wrong, backwards even. Maybe it's too many antibiotics. 🙂
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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Frontseat, I think you probably could've written a lot of the posts I've done in the past month. Our views match - 1 for 1.

Jen
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Frontseat
Contributor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

We'll all see who the experts are and what we should've done in January no doubt. In this environment, you have to see the humor in what things are and not what they appear to be.
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Sillinoisfarmer
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Thanks Mike appreciate the slideshow and if anyone on here wants to poo-paugh that 8" dry that deep won't affect yields is looking with current market sentiment rather than reality.  There will be corn out there but it will not nearly be as much as USDA and the current market wishes/hopes/projects.  The top has been gone for a long time, late planting, N loss, soil compation, cool growing weather, too dry, prevented planting, perhaps early frost as well (its August 1st almost instead of July 1st.  For whatever reason it seems almost conspiratorial that the market seems to wants lower prices regardless of what the reality of the growing conditions may be!  Oh, well Iowa may save us with a big crop this year- wait check that they have some problems, Illinois will save us- uh might be some problems there too, what of Wisconsin, Michigan, S.Dakota, N. Dakota, Nebraska?  Oh well Indiana and Kentucky will do it if you throw Ohio and Maryland in for good measure!  Is this part of that "hopey/changey" metality that we have developed over the past couple of years?  Well reality will set in once the combines roll but will a lot of farmers buy into this nervona of a corn glut and have sold it for less than $4.50 and watch it go up from there?  Literally it is a multi-million dollar question that we will have to wait until January to find the real answer to it. 

jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

That's what's bothered me and others about this market for the last month. Market went down on the promise of rain, it doesn't rain, and the market goes lower. Good export sales, and the market goes lower. As more and more are seeing, the disconnect from reality this year is unlike anything I have seen in the past. Some blame it on the strength of the dollar. It's not that strong. The can has gotten kicked down the road for more than a month. A lot of farmers have sold into a scam I am afraid. If this market eventually reflects reality, maybe it's time we drive our tractors to Chicago and stage our own little protest of a market that is broken.

Jen
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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

SW,

 

To clarify my point of the "TRADE DOES NOT CARE", the trade does not care whether the market goes up or down.  Producers/Farmers do care both ways.  With some farmers discussing the devastation of their crop currently and demanding that the market go up  is crazy. 

 

We have had a handful of farmers on here complain about the slow development of their crops, but that does not mean that 100% of the US farmers are going through the same situation.  Over the years I have learned that the TRADE sometimes chooses factors and prices them into the market.  When we want the TRADE to focus on our factors right now, the TRADE might focus on it later, much later.

 

 

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

SW - that's the problem. Right there. The Trade Does Not Care. Exactly. The CBOT IS A PRICE DISCOVERY INSTITUTION. Some say not. But I can tell you this....if the price that I receive for my crop is set by any means by what the price is on the board in Chicago, it becomes a price discovery tool. And if it is that, and is being manipulated in any way that causes me to suffer a loss, then the board of trade is responsible for it. Why? Because it does not reflect reality, but the whims of who is trading the market to make it do what they want. With a price concocted in a board room somewhere and a plan to enact it, complete with stories and articles and TV shows skewed to show what they want. This isn't price discovery, your right. It's legalized stealing. While those in the know smoke their cigars and laugh at how well their latest scam worked, the bulk of the people get bilked out of millions of dollars, and lines the pockets of a few. And new people keep getting drawn in in the hopes of making millions. This year has been disgusting watching it. Maybe you people at the CBOT are getting careless, or extra greedy. Because anyone looking can see the scam. I'm glad I'm out of the farm with what I see in Chicago.

Jen
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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Sorry SW - the above post was for Giolucas

Jen
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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Jen,

 

The market is not listening to you.  Should it?  I wish the market listened to me when I put a heavy trade in and I get hosed.  You are one of many farmers.  Just like I am one of thousands of traders.  So what you think does not necessarily mean it has to equate to higher prices, TODAY.  Maybe tomorrow but not today. 

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