Floor Talk July 7

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures settled 1/4 of a cent higher at $4.23 1/4 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 1 3/4 cents higher at $4.33 per bushel. 

Aug. soybean futures finished 30 3/4 cents lower at $9.92. Nov. soybean futures closed 30 1/4 cents lower at $9.85 3/4.

Sept. wheat futures finished 7 3/4 cents lower at $5.85 1/4.

Aug. soymeal futures closed $4.40 per short ton lower at $342.50. Aug. soyoil futures ended $1.26 lower at $31.52.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.09 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points higher.

Mike North, President Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the market is eperiencing some reconciliation of last week’s large move higher. 
“Money flows into the market have slowed down considerably, as concerns over the looming Greece financial crisis and tumbling Chinese stock markets have forced traders to reconsider the effect of macro influences on demand,” North says. 
He adds, “This couldn't come at a worse time, as the USDA prepares to release its July WASDE report on Friday.  Markets are incredibly sensitive and will require ongoing positive forces to sustain the rally that dominated most of June.”
Additionally, weather forecasts give hope of some much needed drying to work into wet areas in the south and west Corn Belt, he says.
.

Mike

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are trading 3 cents lower at $4.20 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 2 cents lower at $4.29 per bushel. 

Aug. soybean futures are trading 24 1/2 cents lower at $9.98. Nov. soybean futures are trading 27 cents lower at $9.89.

Sept. wheat futures are 9 cents lower at $5.86.

Aug. soymeal futures are trading $3.60 per short ton lower at $343.30. Aug. soyoil futures are trading $1.11 lower at $31.67.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.80 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 157 points lower.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Sept. corn futures are trading 6 cents lower at $4.20 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 6 cents lower at $4.29 per bushel. 

Aug. soybean futures are trading 11 cents lower at $10.11. Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 cents lower at $10.06.

Sept. wheat futures are 6 cents lower at $5.86 3/4.

Aug. soymeal futures are trading $2.00 per short ton lower at $344.90. Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.37 lower at $32.41.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.34 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 5 points higher.

Mike

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At 8am:

If you missed the delayed CFTC report relased Monday, here is a snapshot. It shows that managed money funds added a huge amount of corn contract longs.

The holiday-delayed Disaggregated CFTC Report yesterday showed managed money traders adding a 163,000 net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday, June 30, over 100,000 more than what daily trade estimates expected. Soybeans came in near expectations with a 51,000 net o added on the week. Chicago wheat contracts added 67,000, and meal & oil added 10-13,000 net. Producers and merchants subsequently sold off 122,000 net corn on the week, with beans down 66,600 and wheat down nearly 45,000 net on the week ending June 30th.

What do you think about these numbers? CX, are you out there? You usually have a take on the COT report. 🙂

Mike

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At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 6-8 cents lower, and wheat 8-9 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.48 higher.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, as investors await the result of the Greek financial crisis.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed.

More in a minute,

Mike

[illinifarmer]

54 degrees and raining again in July. Market lower again what!? You guys are idiots a weather market means weather helps or hurts the market? I guess more wet cold weather is a good thing for crops right? So frustrating seeing this market swing for profit on a weekly bases it is getting really old. Why not just flip a coin and wing it oh wait that's what's been going on for years.

[jec22]

Illi, just like last year when Iowa didn't realize how good IL was, the reverse is probably true this year.  As long as the rains don't shut off and the heat turn up, Iowa is going to produce some big yields, and not just in the northern part of the state. Looks like we have already taken the report run up out of the market, so do we take a stab at the lows again?  Traders are trading the trend.  End users have ample old crop to fatten their supplies.  Plenty of bearish fundamentals.  Doesn't matter if the traders are right come harvest.  Found out last year, doesn't matter what your back yard looks like.  Of course, that can go either way.  Going to be a tough week for MO, IL, IN, and OH producers if the rains they are predicting materialize.

Now with that said, IL produced a lot of 250+ corn last year, it would take a steady diet of well timed rains and not too hot of temps for Iowa to match that in 2015 on the best ground, but those yields are still on the table.  August weather can easily swing IA's state wide average 30 bpa this year.

[roarintiger1]

It seems that the traders did not get the memo that the crop conditions really did not improve last week......

[greatlakes farmer]

So good yields in Iowa are going to offset Mo, I'll, In, and Oh put together?!? I understand that back yards don't matter but it sure sounds to me like there are a LOT of back yards that are in really bad shape. I also realize end users are well supplied TODAY. What I don't get is that 5 days without rain is all it takes to turn the crop conditions around after 3 weeks of solid rain??? Now we are going back into another week of forecasted rain. I can't help but wonder i f we don't have a small crop that gets smaller. I'm no expert just my observations.

[docharing]

Where is the talk about the millions of acres of soybeans not planted! What about the soybeans planted but in the poor/verypoor rating? Corn rating went up 1 lousy point in the good to excellent and the market drops? Profit taking ? Really!

[giolucas]

China's tanking stock markets were largely overshadowed due to turmoil in Greece over recent weeks, but the impact of tumbling share prices is getting harder to ignore. China's leading Shanghai Composite index has fallen by over 30% over the last 3 weeks. The collapse has largely been contained within China so far, but there are signs that it's starting to impact other markets. LIKE THE COMMODITIES MARKETS.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/great-fall-of-china-oil-copper-shanghai-composite-2015-7#ixzz3fDnN05H...

[sw363535]

Thanks giolucas,

I been looking for news on that issue..

[roarintiger1]

I am assuming that the Chinese people still have to eat......

[sw363535]

Sure they do Rt,  I think it relates more to the amount of wealth that is available to "invest" in commodities within China.  The volume ain't going anywhere...

I saw two reports this morning on world stocks compared to useage, one overall, and one without China.  It was interesting how China's reserves distort the supply ratio....  But I have to ask, are those reserves available to the rest of the world..... and are they marketable and in good condition...