Floor Talk July 9

[marketeye]

At 10am:

I talked with a farmer today that said, "Mike, I just can't figure out these markets. Everytime I look, the prices are going in a different direction than what I think."

I reassured him that he is not going crazy. Ironically, before I spoke to him, I had put my thoughts together in this story:

Marketing curveballs keep coming

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At the close:

The Sept. futures corn contract closed 18 cents higher at $5.51. New-crop Dec. corn futures closed 21 cents higher at $5.21. The Aug. soybean futures contract closed 12 cents higher at $14.68, new-crop Nov. soybeans ended 24cents higher at $12.76.  Sept. wheat futures finished 14 cents higher at $6.77 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures ended$6.80 short ton higher at $448.90. The Aug. soyoil futures settled $0.06 higher at $47.02.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 75 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Sept. futures corn contract is trading 9 cents higher at $5.42. New-crop Dec. corn futures are trading 9 cents higher at $5.09. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents higher at $14.66, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 11 cents higher at $12.63.  Sept. wheat futures are trading 16 cents higher at $6.79 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $6.70 short ton higher at $448.80. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.21 lower at $46.75.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.10 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 62 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

The Sept. futures corn contract opened 10 cents higher at $5.43. New-crop Dec. corn futures opened 8 cents higher at $5.09. The Aug. soybean futures contract opened 16 cents higher at $14.72, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 20 cents higher at $12.72.  Sept. wheat futures started 13 cents higher at $6.76 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures opened $6.40 short ton higher at $448.50. The Aug. soyoil futures opened $0.14 higher at $47.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.66 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points higher.

Mike

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At 7:05am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 9-11 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 15-17 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 5-7 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 7-9 cents higher and soybeans are seen 18-20 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply higher.
Crude Oil=$0.17 per barrel lower. 
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher, as Alcoa reports stronger second quarter earnings. Investors are still awaiting the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. Many believe the minutes will indicate when the Fed will slow the monetary easing program.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

Folks,

I visited this cornfield in southcentral Iowa, Monday. I know there are spots in the Midwest that are struggling with the growing season. That's why when I ran into this field, I was surprised to see such healthy corn. The farmer in these photos stands 6'0 tall. So, I'm estimating this corn is about 10'0-11'0 feet tall. Not only is it tall, but the plant health from roots to the apex (top of its 11th leaf) looks very impressive. The population is maxed out. So, rain will be needed.

This corn was planted in mid-to-late April. It is just getting ready to release its male flowers (tassel).

It's really tall corn. And guess what, there are other parts of this 250 acre field that have even taller cornstalks. Make no mistake, the farmer realizes this isn't the end of the story. As he told me, rain is still needed. And when I shared with him the 'high ridge' talk for the latter part of July, he rolled his eyes, as if to say that's exactly what he means. Also, just two miles south of this area, a hailstorm stripped cornfields. So, there's a long way to go with this growing season. Nonetheless, it's healthy looking corn on July 8th.

Mike

[luisvieira]

Mike,

It's really huge. In Mato Grosso, farmers are getting the worst price ever for corn, but some other crops are compensating. The problems here are the estimates for the US corn crop. I put more info on my blog: http://www.agrosouth-news.com/?p=341

[ECIN]

Hey Mike - One question here -- did you take them pictures --with -- or with out - hobbies rose colored glasses on  ?

That is some dang tall corn !

Thanks for the pictures .

[roarintiger1]

So, As far as the Brazil corn prices go........The USDA predictions can screw up the prices in more than one country?

[marketeye]

ECIN,

I wear contacts and didn't have any sunglasses with me. So, no rose-colored going on. But, yeah, I was alarmed at the size, after just returning from central Illinois, where the corn was about head-high. I will note, this same field produced corn, last year, that was as tall as the combine windshield. I remember riding in the combine, when that corn was harvested. I'm glad you liked the photo. This tall corn relates to the market, because it shows the variability that the U.S. crop is showing. How does the market read the major differences out there? That may be the question of the year.

Mike

[Farmerjoe79]

It looks like silage corn to me.

[ECIN]

Quote from Mike :  This tall corn relates to the market, because it shows the variability that the U.S. crop is showing. How does the market read the major differences out there? That may be the question of the year

Well here's my 2 cents worth that 90 % don't agree with - lol But as of now - No Problem with corn - These guys - have  a lot of good info . And they got a good idea on how many acres will  be PP - or lower production , this is more or less a prefect type of storm in my book -- you have prats of Iowa ,MN and WS that lost acres , just about any other year - the market would be going crazy - Oh my god ! Iowa is in trouble ! The world starts and stop's in Iowa . But not this year , We don't have to raise a record crop or even a super big one - just around -- say high 11's to 12 and thats where i think we will be close to baring anymore trouble .

 Here's some of the trend yeilds for 2013

IN 154

IL 163.1

IA 181

OH 158.1

KY 133.3

NE 169.8

KS 120.8

NC 110.6

WI 151.6

LA 157.9

CO 145.5

AL 113.7

TN 135.3

MO 128.4

PA  132.1

MI 150.0

ND 131.4

SC 103.9

SD 135.3

VA  128.7

MS 151.5

GA 161.6

TX 128.7

MN 179.9

From the guys I have talked to--- other than 3 states - the other's look pretty good

These numbers come from FC Stone , and would say -- as of today ! there not to far off .

[kraft-t]

I'll bet the guy in the photos is standing on his knees. It's just a conspiracy by marketeye to talk corn prices down. he is probably short the board.

[Farmerjoe79]

I am just saying it looks like silage corn. I had 12 foot corn here about five years ago and looked like it should yield 250 but it went 115. It puts everything in the stalk and nothing in the ear.