Floor Talk June 1

[marketeye]

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 4 1/4 cents lower at $5.51, while the Dec. contract closed 12 cents lower at $5.10. The July soybean contract finished 1 cent higher $13.41, while the Nov. 2012 contract settled 13 cents lower at $12.57. The July wheat futures closed 31 1/4 cents lower at $6.12 1/2. July soyoil futures finished down $0.67 at $48.53. The July soymeal futures closed $0.50 lower at $394.00. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.34 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 228 points.

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 19 cents higher at $5.74 1/4, while the Dec. contract trades 4 cents higher at $5.26. The July soybean contract is trading 14 cents higher $13.54, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 3/4 of a cent higher at $12.71. The July wheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $6.35 3/4. July soyoil futures trade down $0.51 at $48.69. The July soymeal futures trade $8.20 higher at $402.70. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $3.52 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 194 points.

One floor trader says, "People are watching the cash markets surge higher, sending signals that supplies are tight. In Decatur, Illinois, cash corn offers jumped to 60-cents above the Chicago futures price Friday. Also, some Kansas feedlots are paying 80 cents over the 'board' price, plus picking the corn up at the farm.
In addition to strong cash markets, there are rumors that China is stepping into the market for either old-crop corn or soybeans.
Plus, there is talk that the recent rains in the Midwest were not as helpful as people thought. So, I see next week being a big upside week," he says.

Mike

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At 10:15am:

Old-crop corn shoots 16 cents higher.

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 5 1/4 cents higher at $5.61, while the Dec. contract trades 4 cents lower at $5.18. The July soybean contract is trading 7 cents lower $13.32, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 12 cents lower at $12.58. The July wheat futures are trading 9 cents lower at $6.35. July soyoil futures trade down $0.67 at $48.52. The July soymeal futures opened unchanged at $394.50. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.77 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 198 points.

Mike

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At 7:30am:

USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report is friendly for corn and wheat, weak for soybeans.

Corn=815,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 500,00-900,000 mt.

Soybeans=308,400 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 500,000-900,000 mt.

Wheat=643,800 mt compared to the expectations of between 250,000-500,000mt.

--Argentina's Cereal Exchange kept that country's corn and soybean production estimates unchanged Thursday, compared to its previous crop estimates.

--U.S. fuel ethanol production fell back to 902,000 barrels per day for the week ending last Friday, down 17,000 on the week and 7,000 below the same week a year ago.

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 7-8 cents lower, and wheat 2-3 cents lower. USDA's Weekly Export Sales will be released at 7:30am Friday.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$1.79 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen headed lower, ahead of U.S. jobs data Friday. Also, China's May manufacturing data released Friday was weak, giving economists reasons to wonder if that country's economy is headed for a 'hard landing'.

World Markets=Lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

At 7am:

It's never too early for estimates of this month's first government report is it? Here are PFGBest.com's estimates for the June 12 USDA Crop Report.

2011-12 U.S. Ending stocks
             
                   2012               
Corn            851 million bushels               
Soybeans   200  million bushels                   
Wheat         755  million bushels                     


2012-2013 U.S. Ending stocks
           
                   2013    
Corn           1.825 billion bushels
Soybeans    140 million bushels
Wheat          730 million bushels


2011-12 World Reserves
           
                     2012
Corn           128.00 mmt
Soybeans    52.9 mmt
Wheat        196.00 mmt


2012-13 World Reserves
           
                   2013        
Corn          153.50  mmt       
Soybeans  57.90   mmt
Wheat       185.00  mmt 

 
2012-13 U.S. Winter Wheat Production
          
Not available

What do you think about the estimates? Are they in the ballpark, too high, or too conservative?

Mike

[Wind]

Mike,

  Crude oil is still going down.  At around 83.  I'm not seeing much of a drop at the pump price.  That's nothing new.  Any take on why it is dropping other than investors worries? 

[425Cat]

Eye,

Good export news for corn finally. Can you give us an updated weather report say 10 days out

[highyields]

gas should be around $2/gallon but at last its not.  Evidently the world economy is way way worse and the demand for oil isn't there anymore, OR its the outside investors had way way more push in this oil market then anyone thought.  

[marketeye]

Wind,

The U.S. Dollar is at a 2 1/2 year high. Because crude oil is sold in dollars, combined with risk-averse attitudes, you have a recipe for a falling  market. Those are my thoughts anyway.

Mike

[highyields]

all the investors are flocking towards the US dollar and I know thats bearsish to the exports, and I know that the dollar is the worlds currency. 

But the United states isn't in the best situation as far as their economy and our national debt. Well the dollar always be the place to go as long as the dollar is the world currency?

[too close for comfort]

Mike is there any where to find their predictions from last year? There is a lot of prognosticating going on and the USDA is the only one that makes it easy to see their previous guesses.

[marketeye]

too close,

You could scroll back to last year at this time, on this Talk section. You would find the pre-estimates we posted then. That is one idea. I can ask some of these analyst firms to share their pre-report estimates from last year. But, my first suggestion might be more fruitful.

Mike

[marketeye]

425Cat,

Here's the latest snapshot on weather. First, the 11-15 day outlook remains very hot/dry. The 6-10 day is pretty dry for the Midwest. However, significant rain coverage could hit the Deep South. For this weekend, the Midwest is expected to be cooler than normal and dry.

Hope this helps,

Mike