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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk June 1

At 3:35pm:

USDA Crop Progress Report is freindly for the farm markets. Both corn and soybean crop condition ratings fell 2%. Spring wheat conditions dropped too.

Higher overnight markets expected, according to analysts.

 

Mike

-----

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 3/4 of a cent higher at $3.52 1/4 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 1 cent higher at $3.69 per bushel.
July soybean futures closed 8 cents lower at $9.26. Nov. soybean futures ended 4 1/2 cents lower at $9.01 1/4.

July wheat futures finished 16 3/4 cents higher at $4.93 3/4.

July soymeal futures closed $9.10 per short ton lower at $296.60.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $0.11 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 71 points higher.

 

Mike

---------

At mid-session:

At 10:40am, the July corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $3.50 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 1 1/2 cents lower at $3.66 1/2 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 7 1/4 cents lower at $9.26. Nov. soybean futures are trading 4 1/4 cents lower at $9.01.

July wheat futures are trading 10 1/2 cents higher at $4.87.

July soymeal futures are trading $8.70 per short ton lower at $297.00.

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.01 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group senior market analyst, says that wheat is still a weather market.  “The floods are receding and the loss potential whatever it is is starting to appear.  At minimum, there should be some protein loss in the central and southern Great Plains, with some potential for yield loss.  Farther north, it was very cold with potential for some damaging frost in spring areas in the Dakotas and up into Canada,” Scoville says. 
The world markets are weak and the U.S. market is not following, indicating the market is getting its direction from the weather, he says. 
Corn and beans are weaker on better weather here, Scoville sayus. 
“Corn is emerging everywhere and apparently looking pretty good.  There will be some area lost in the southwest Midwest, Great Plains and Delta. But, maybe not a lot of area and the yields could be very strong, if we stay cool and wet this summer.”
For soybeans, that crop should be about 75% planted, here, and the strike is over in Argentina. “So, beans are re-selling off.  The strong dollar hurting both corn and beans a bit today. But, weather trumping the stronger dollar in wheat, at last so far.”

Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC grain analyst, says that the weekly export inspections report has pressured the market.
“Soybean export inspections were much weaker than guessed which helped extend the weakness around 10am.  We also have the US Dollar index near last week's high,” Johnson says.
The EPA announcement last week appears to have the market supporting soyoil on a projected drawdown of supplies, he says. 
“It is also interesting to note that the funds are already long soyoil, short soymeal. So, they may try to build on this position,” Johnson says.

Johnson adds, “Otherwise, I think the market is in a lull period where most of the weather premium has already been worked out.  The market needs a more definitive catalyst for a new trend to form.”

 

Mike

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At 11:10am:

USDA Weekly Export Inspection Report released Monday. Whoa! Soybean inspections were revised lower from last week, in a significant way. Corn and wheat were revised lower too, but not as much as beans. What say you?

 

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 28, 2015
                            -- METRIC TONS --
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS  
             ----------- WEEK ENDING ----------  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR
  GRAIN      05/28/2015  05/21/2015  05/29/2014    TO DATE     TO DATE   

BARLEY         17,464           0      14,054      180,002      214,277  
CORN          975,985   1,007,891     980,053   31,897,668   33,676,943  
FLAXSEED            0          24          24        8,086        8,494  
MIXED               0           0           0            0            0  
OATS                0           0           0          600        2,055  
RYE                 0           0           0            0            0  
SORGHUM       158,926     111,405     118,254    7,362,255    3,422,735  
SOYBEANS       73,190     302,193     159,278   46,955,179   42,120,158  
SUNFLOWER           0           0           0            0            0  
WHEAT         359,693     451,028     532,901   22,592,876   31,267,791  
Total       1,585,258   1,872,541   1,804,564  108,996,666  110,712,453  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

At 10:35am:

Corn and soybeans are trading lower, Again! This market is really fluctuating. Beans are back down 8¢.

 

Mike

At 10am:

At 10am, the July corn futures are trading1 3/4 cents higher at $3.53 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 2 cents higher at $3.70 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $9.34. Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 3/4 cents higher at $9.07.

July wheat futures are trading 9 1/4 cents higher at $4.86.

July soymeal futures are trading $6.30 per short ton lower at $299.40. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.01 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points higher.

Mike

---------

At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $3.48 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 2 3/4 cents lower at $3.65 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 9 1/4 cents lower at $9.24. Nov. soybean futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $9.00.

July wheat futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $4.78.

July soymeal futures are trading $6.90 per short ton lower at $298.80. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.73 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.

Mike

-----------

At 7:50am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 7-8 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.70 lower.
Dollar =Higher. 
Wall Street = Seen higher, with China's indifferent data released Sunday.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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3 Replies
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 1

Mike,

 

Wait a minute.  Soybeans, will be back in positive territory soon.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 1

giolucas,

 

Yeah, this thing is nuts. Beans started weaker, jumped up 10¢, and then fell to 7¢ lower. The trade is talking about new-crop sales lagging behind previous years, at this time. The export inspection report was being eyed, this morning. Regarding corn, this afternoon's report is expected to show that corn planting is finished, that's negative. For wheat, the trade expects the report to show crop damage from flooding.

 

We'l see.

 

Mike

 

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 1

Thanks Mike,

 

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