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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, June 10, 2019

After the close:

USDA released its Crop Condition Report. Here are the details.

 

Full story:   Corn Condition Rating Is Weak, For June 10.

 

What say you?

 

Thanks,

 

mike

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished steady at $4.15. Dec. corn futures ended 3/4¢ higher at $4.34.

July soybean futures settled 2 1/4¢ higher at $8.58. November soybean futures ended 2 3/4¢ higher at $8.85.

July wheat futures closed 3¢ higher at $5.07 3/4.



July soymeal futures closed $1.10 per short ton higher at $313.40.

 July soy oil futures ended even at 27.38¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.85 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 118 points higher.

Mike

------------

At 11:07am:

At midsession, the July corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $4.15. Dec. corn futures are 1/4¢ higher at $4.34.

July soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $8.64. November soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $8.91 1/2.

July wheat futures are 3/4¢ lower at $5.03 3/4.



July soymeal futures are $3.50 per short ton higher at $315.80.

 July soy oil futures are $0.16 cent higher at 27.54¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.01 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 202 points higher.

Mike

-----------

At 9:06am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 4¢ lower at $4.11 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.30.

July soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $8.53 1/2. November soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $8.80 1/2.

July wheat futures are 9 1/2¢ lower at $4.95.

July soymeal futures are $1.60 per short ton lower at $310.70.

July soy oil futures are $0.15 cent lower at 27.23¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.03 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 136 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching for today’s USDA Crop Progress Report and tomorrow’s June Supply/Demand Report.

“The USDA Crop Progress report today will show nationwide corn planting at about 85% complete. I also look for the initial report on corn conditions to show that about 60% of the corn will be rated good to excellent, since the USDA only rates the corn that is emerged,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “We could be set up for a bearish USDA Crop Production report on Tuesday. I doubt if the USDA will cut the corn crop in the June 11 report as much as the private estimates are expecting. If the USDA uses the same methodology as 1995 and 2012, then the USDA may report a corn crop that is around 14 billion bushels.”

 

Mike

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5 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 10, 2019

"the USDA may report a corn crop that is around 14 billion bushels."   Yep, that sounds about right.  

With that number,  they have to be counting the old corn currently in the bins in addition to 2019's crop, right?

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, June 10, 2019

USDA will not let go of their lofty yields until they are ready to tell us because of the price of corn we will plant 105 million acres at 176 per acre in 2020Smiley Happy

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Senior Contributor

Re: 14 billion? Yeah, right.

14 billion? Yeah, right. If you use Illinois as an example and calculate their lost production alone, taking in to account their late planted yield loss and that not planted at all,  they alone will lose almost a billion bushel in production. 

For example, as of this past week, Ill. is only 73% planted.  If Ill. was going to plant 13. 6 million acres, there's 3.67 A's not planted and aren't likely to be planted.  If under good conditions Ill. would average 200 bpa then that's 734 million bushel of lost production.  If you apply the late planting yield loss formula in the chart below to the respective acres planted per week, you lose another 250 million bushel as well.  Apply a similar analysis to Indiana, Ohio, & South Dakota and where does that leave you?  And that's assuming ideal conditions for the rest of the season.ill. production lost-page-001.jpg

yld penalty curve Ill.-page-001.jpg
ill. production lost-page-001.jpg
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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 10, 2019

Rick , you would need to adjust the yield of the rest of the crop a bit higher to allow for the abundant moisture in the profile. NASS will allow something for that in their numbers probably.

Your point is well taken though. I like to think about it this way, the 17% unplanted on June 10th could be translated into a 17% yield loss on the original 92.7 mil acres at 175 or so, this makes the yield roughly 145 on the 92.7 mil acres intended, plus in extra bushels from the perfect crops in IA/NE/MN and the south and east. Going to be fun to see how much they have to reduce demand to keep carryout in the 1.6 Bil bu range :-)

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, June 10, 2019

I agree with you on the soil moisture but I didn't allow anything for the drown outs and replanting, nitrogen loss, etc.  There's just too much unknown at this time to make more than a rough guess.

  Besides,  it can get dry awfully fast and in another two weeks all that water stressed corn could be looking at no water.

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