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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk June 10

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 7 3/4 cents lower at $3.57 1/4 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 7 3/4 cents lower at $3.75 1/4 per bushel.
July soybean futures closed 2 cents lower at $9.49. Nov. soybean futures ended 3 1/4 cents lower at $9.21 3/4.

July wheat futures closed 18 3/4 cents lower at $5.13 1/2.

July soymeal futures settled $2.10 per short ton lower at $314.40. July soyoil futures closed $0.06 lower at $33.87. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $0.81 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 262 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-day:

At mid-day, the July corn futures are trading 4 cents lower at $3.61 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 4 1/4 cents lower at $3.78 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $9.50. Nov. soybean futures are trading 3 cents lower at $9.22.

July wheat futures 13 1/2 cents lower at $5.18 3/4.

July soymeal futures are trading $0.20 per short ton higher at $316.70. July soyoil futures are trading $0.28 lower at $33.65. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.42 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 249 points higher.

Mike

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USDA SAYS:

After the report release, wheat dropped 10 cents, beans down 1-2 cents, corn ddown 2 cents. The report seen mostly negative for wheat, due to higher production than thought. For corn, the ending stocks build. Soybean ending stocks tightened but not enough.

Old-Crop:

U.S. U.S. 2014/15 corn carryout= 1.876 billion bushels vs. surveyed analysts average estimate of 1.859 billion bushels, and the government’s May estimate of 1.851 billion.

U.S. 2014/15 soybean carryout=  330 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 339 million bushels, and compared with the USDA ’s May estimate of 350 million.

Wheat=  712 million bushels vs. May estimate of 709 million bushels.

New Crop:

For 2015/16, the U.S. corn carryout= 1.771 billion bushels, vs. the average analyst estimate of 1.779 billion bushels and the USDA’s May estimate of 1.746 billion.

FACT: A jump in the new-crop corn carryout would be only the second time this has happened in the last 11 years, and the first since 2007, according to FC Stone-Intl.

U.S. 2015/16 soybean carryout=  475 million bushels, vs. the trade’s estimate of 487 million bushels, and the USDA’s May estimate of 500 million bushels.

PRODUCTION
U.S. 2015-16 corn crop=   vs. May estimate of 13.651 billion bushels.

U.S. soybean crop=      vs. May estimate 3.846 billion.

U.S. 2015-16 wheat= 2.121 billion bushels, compared with its May estimate of 2.087 billion bushels.

TRADE REACTION:

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that today’s report is significant because it confirms record global demand for both corn and soybeans. "Total global usage for corn and soybeans is at record highs and growing, and total corn demand in the United States is also at a record high and growing. Clearly lower prices are supporting increasing consumption around the globe for all grains, which puts pressure on Mother Nature to continue with the current near-perfect growing conditions. Market participants may already be anticipating good yields and adequate supplies, and any change in yield projections to the downside could have a dramatic effect on prices. With consumption steady and growing, the market focus will now become almost entirely supply oriented; all eyes are on the weather from this point forward. Traders will be watching for adequate moisture and heat in the Midwestern U.S., and El Nino watchers will keep a close eye on any potential drought conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly as it relates to Australian wheat production.

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vic-president, says that the report shows estimates that are in-line with expectations. "USDA indicated better demand for soybeans as expected, not so for corn and wheat as expected. The wheat production might be a little high, but USDA needs to see field yields. And, so far, they do not have a lot to work with. Nothing really game changing here, we got quarterly stocks and acreage coming and then the weather. I think the July estimates will be much more interesting.

World data does not seem all that wild, either. USDA mostly left Brazil and Argentina unchanged. I think we will be trading weather again and yield reports from wheat very quickly now."

--Scott Shellady, says, "As far as ending stocks...corn in line, beans lighter than expected at 475 vs expected 482.6 and wheat heavier at 814 vs expected 793.59 waiting to see market reaction."

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $3.66 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 3/4 of a 1cent higher at $3.84 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 5 1/2 cents higher at $9.56. Nov. soybean futures are trading 5 1/2 cents higher at $9.30.

July wheat futures 3 cents higher at $5.35.

July soymeal futures are trading $1.40 per short ton lower at $315.20. July soyoil futures are trading $0.24 higher at $34.17. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.10 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 72 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:20am:

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 128,500 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations.  Of the total, 8,500 metric tons is for delivery doing the 2014/2015 marketing year and 120,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2015/2016 marketing year. 

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

Mike

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At 7:24am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $1.15 higher.
Dollar =Lower. 
Wall Street = Seen higher, with rising  bond yields in focus.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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5 Replies
giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 10

No movement.  

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 10

WASDE Report notables:

 

--Brazil corn production up 3 mt, Arg up .5. Arg beans up 1 mmt.

--Russia wheat up 1.5 mmt, Ukraine up 1 mmt. WASDE didn't change China wheat stocks.

--World corn ending stocks for 2016 were raised 3 mmt from May, and down only 2 mmt year to year using a record 228 (unchanged) China corn crop with the China corn stocks seen increasing 11 mmt.

 

What do you think?

 

Mike

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 10

According to Sal: "which puts pressure on Mother Nature to continue with the current near-perfect growing conditions".

 

These kind of statements are always fun. Demonstrates a real lack of understanding or a real blindness to reality. Too much rain is just as bad as not enough, especially for corn in June. Highly variable rainfall (look at the map the last 8 weeks, week by week) is not near perfect for Sal's information. What is he basing that comment on? Crop ratings...which are bizarrely meaningless in early June? I think it is fair to look into this a little further. Planting and emergence dates are pretty average.  Of course, I realize that marketeye won't respond to me because I am sometimes critical of him Smiley Wink

 

We all know that growing conditions have little to do with prices, but Sal just exposed himself as...hmmm....."under-informed" shall we say. Why can't he just admit that half the country is in pretty good shape, and half is pretty beat up, hardly "near perfect"?

 

Good to know the market it trading perfect though, at some point it really limits the downside.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 10

The response is just as I anticipated.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 10

We expect marketeye to ask the critical questions,  and If he does, the results are well hidden... 

But in his defense the folks he quotes are not folks who listen to a second question from anybody....... They just present the prepared statements.

 

Time

If planting and emergence were timely, why are there so many acres out here struggling with the normal wheat harvest heat of 95+, because the corn is 3-4 inches high and has no roots..................  This summer should end wet and cool......  It would be a fitting end--not being able to get it dried down...

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