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deasmatt90
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

roarintiger1, I believe as you do that corn is still way under valued. However to get back to the prices of 2008 and 2012 I believe we will need a lot of outside speculators losing money in other markets coming to this market that aren't currently here. I believe this was the condition in 2008. 2012 was more of a fundamental condition but I believe that you still had investors in the market that were not traditional commodity investors.
I believe we need to see periods of no or negative movements in other markets to bring speculators to our markets. I know I've said on here at one time 8.00 corn in two years, but I believe we will need more bag holders to get to that price. If these investment banks start to push commodity derivatives and commodity funds as they are beginning to do now, I believe we will see 8.00 again. The key will be the investment banks ability to be successful with their campaigns to outside investors. I am starting to see the hints of low commodity supplies reported in small areas outside of the producer end user arenas. Nothing big just hints.
The campaign are starting. Will they be successful?
Stay tuned!

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deasmatt90
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

Commitment of traders charts also showing that big speculators are around 100,000 contracts from being as long in the market as they were during the times of 8.00.
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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

Many farmers don't want or need prices like we had in 2012.......they just want a fair price. They want a price that keeps up with inflation of their input costs.   

There is no doubt that to get those prices back in the wild range, the speculators have to bring their money and have at it.  When (not if) that happens, crazy prices will be back in style and will go too far the other direction. 

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crophugger
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

It's called parity if we don't get it pretty soon there will be a lot of people in trouble and not just the producers.

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deasmatt90
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

Unfortunately this is now the world we live in, and in reality it has always been this way.however Go back and look at a thirty year stocks to use chart with prices and look at how much better we have been in the last 10 years at controlling supply. I believe we have the potiental to see these spikes in pricing more frequently in the coming years, but what happens when grain prices get to profitable levels? Governments are over thrown by the masses. So you have more subsidies to keep farmers over supplying putting caps on price.

So how can we survive this? Do we have a plan?
Mine is to learn to trade the commodities that I produce and go long when smart money goes long and short when smart money goes short.
I mean who could be better at trading than speculators?
With the right knowledge the producer and the buyers! My goal is to really learn my markets inside and out.
The tricks of the trade.
I can't afford to wait for an apology from the markets for an unfair price. The market doesn't apologize. For every winner there is a loser. Therefore my goal is to become as unapologetic to it as it is to me. To find opportunities within every year to open positions and Close positions to bagholders. Because at the end of the day this is what it's all about in Chicago. I can't sway opinion with market analysis but I can spot when it's happening. I can't manipulate the market day to day as the big traders do but it's not hard to tell when they are if you know what to look for on level 2 and time and sales. And will the government ever look into this market manipulation? Only when prices are at profitable levels so I don't have to worry about that changing. So why not?
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crophugger
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

when you get er figured out you let me know.

Funny when you heard of tariffs coming from our gov't that you get a text the next day from one of your suppliers and we will be going up 15% to 18% on gates posts etc. but the people that keep food on your table get to be PATRIOTS for your country seems kinda backwards to me but I'm just a lonely 2% of the pop. so what the hay.

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