Floor Talk June 14

[marketeye]

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the the July futures corn contract is 6 cents higher at $6.49. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 3 cents lower at $5.32. The July soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $15.08, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 6 cents lower at $12.94. July wheat futures are trading 7 cents lower at $6.78 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $2.60 per short ton lower at $450.00. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.36 higher at $48.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.94 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 70 points lower.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the the July futures corn contract is 6 cents higher at $6.50. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 1 cent higher at $5.36. The July soybean futures contract is trading 8 cents higher at $15.18, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 3 cents higher at $13.04. July wheat futures are trading 13 cents lower at $6.84 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $2.50 per short ton higher at $427.20. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.23 higher.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points lower.

Mike

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At 6:25am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 8-10 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 1-2 cents lower and soybeans are seen 4-6 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.46 per barrel higher. 
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[rightone]

of corn that averages 150 = 12 b total bu.

That kinda puts the 1.9 billion projected carry at a negative or -100 mill carry.

IF the crop were to yield 50+% better than the wet 1993 crop, That puts total bu in the  10.6 bu range ie 85 mill acres at 125 bu avg.

11 billion total may turn out respectable considering the year, or an approx. Negative or -1 billion carry.

Will IA raise 75% of a normal crop?.

Will MN raise 65% of a normal crop?

Will WI raise 55% of a normal crop?

Will MO raise 65% of a normal crop?

Will ND raise 25% of a normal crop?

The afore may not seem like much concerning the total down the road, but things are starting to Negative up so to speak.

Granted Nebraska gonna raise decent corn most likey.

Also the SE usa is in good shape.

With the poundings IL, IN have had they'll have ok corn perhaps, but their avg may not much to write home about, so to speak.

Beans?  with all the pp on em they may not make 60 mill acres planted ( lotta folks are sick of waiting for dry, have thrown in the towel on planting ).

[highyields]

Nebraska will raise a crop, ONLY if the western 2/3's is allowed to pump enough water.  ITs really really dry when you get west of Grand Island from what I have been told.   so don't count on Nebraska's corn just yet,,, 

[luisvieira]

In South America, people are just talking about more corn...

[sw363535]

Luis,

In the US years ago there was a "rule of thumb" that said corn and bean prices should be in a 2.2 to 1 ratio( or around that ratio).  Is there a price point where farmers switch in Brazil and Arg.  Or is it based on what the export market is looking for ????

[luisvieira]

It is based more on international prices.