Floor Talk June 15

[marketeye]

"Current national basis levels are 13 cents stronger than the five year average and 7 cents stronger than the maximum recorded new crop basis seen in the last five years during this time," Kevin McNew, Cashgrainbids.com said Friday.

[highyields]

I think all of Informa numbers are high.    Corn well be around 95 million give or take half a million and beans around the 73 million acres.   

I

[GoredHusker]

Corn acres might be a little high, they might be spot on.  However, the soybean acres are what's going to be interesting.  I thought they were low in March by a million or two.  With the dry weather, I'm beginning to wonder if maybe they weren't right in March as one really has to question how many double crop beans will actually get planted.  Wheat harvest is just gettiing started around these parts with average yields being reported from what has been cut thus far.  It all depends on who you talk to whether that's what was expected or not.  The more pessimistic seem happy with the yields so far while the optimistic are rather disappointed.  The last three years we've had well above average yields. 

[rusureofit]

Just ran accross this comment on Reuters.com:

 The nervous market grew even more anxious about crop prospects on Friday due to talk of low production estimates from analytics company Lanworth, a unit of Thomson Reuters.     Traders said Lanworth pegged this year's U.S. corn crop at 13.645 billion bushels, with a range of 12.043 billion to 13.861 billion bushels. Lanworth said the forecasts "were taken out of a report that is not in the public domain."     The USDA in May pegged this year's U.S. corn crop at a record 14.79 billion bushels, but that was before the onset of hot and dry weather in the Midwest that has stressed the crop.

[GoredHusker]

AgResource midday reported rumors of ethanol plants selling corn inventory back into the open market which is what is pressuring the July contract.  I'd venture to guess it has a lot more to do with risk off heading into the weekend.  Basis has a lot of work to do considering the July contract since March has seen lower highs and lower lows. 

[Farmerjoe79]

What are they goin to come up with next time they need to buy corn. I like how they use scare tactics like this just to try to get people to sell. Ship in that Brazilian corn by the time it gets here it will cost them 8 dollars a bushel. That's how smart some of these people think these days.

[Slim123]

Marketeye:     How close has Informa's figures been in recent years to what the real number is or do they guess what the USDA will say?

[Farmerjoe79]

I would bye that brazil corn up before china gets it all if we are that short over here. They said they only have 11 million metric ton to ship.

[highyields]

if you can buy corn in the 6 dollar range why would you import corn from brazil?  

I think its a risk off day due to the Greece vote over the weekend

the rain in the western corn belt was very limited in coverage.