At 3:10pm:
USDA rates U.S. corn crop at 63% good/excellent. The soybean crop is rated as 56% good-to-excellent. Surprised?
Mike
-----------
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 20 cents higher at $5.99 1/2, while the Dec. contract settled 28 cents higher at $5.34. The July soybean contract ended 8 1/4 cents higher $13.84 3/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract finished 25 1/4 cents higher at $13.39 1/2. The July wheat futures finished 20 3/4 cents higher at $6.30 1/4. July soyoil futures finished $0.32 higher at $48.76. The July soymeal futures finished $2.80 higher at $412.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points lower.
Mike
-------
At mid-session:
The July corn futures trade 22 1/2 cents higher at $6.02, while the Dec. contract trades 21 3/4 cents higher at $5.27 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 13 3/4 cents higher $13.89 3/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 19 1/2 cents higher at $13.33 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 21 3/4 cents higher at $6.31 1/2. July soyoil futures trade $0.23 higher at $48.67. The July soymeal futures are trading $4.30 higher at $414.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.16 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.
One floor trader says the hot/dry weather is underpinning the farm markets Monday.
"I think the wind that accompanied weekend rain events, has the market thinking those rains were not as beneficial as they could have been," he says. Plus, we are looking at a 6-10 day forecast of hot and dry. That is even more price-supportive."
Most marketwatchers feel like when Dec. corn futures got down to $5.10 that it was a bargain and started buying it, he says.
Meanwhile, the old-crop July corn futures contract is gaining on the previous leading Dec. contract (daily change price). This supports the idea that there isn't much corn in the hands of farmers, he says.
"July was lagging behind Dec. futures prices by 4-5 cents. And now all of the sudden the two contracts are even. So, that old-crop corn issue is still out there," he says.
Brazil Rumor
To end last week, a rumor that Brazil was exporting corn to the U.S. circled the trade floor. That rumor is believed to be false, he says.
"It doesn't figure. Cost-wise, It pencils out to be worth it. But, because of Brazil's infrastructure, the shipment would take 55 days to get to the U.S. For that reason, the market doesn't believe the rumor," he says.
The corn would have to land in Norfolk, Virginia, due to the rumored potential buyers. Hog producer Smithfield has denied any corn purchases from Brazil. That leaves poultry producer Purdue, but that is seen as unlikely, he says.
"I don't believe it's true." he says..
Mike
---------
At 10:15am:
Hot/dry weather outlooks have the farm markets up double-digits Monday. The weather models agree that the next 6-9 days look hot and dry.
Mike
-----------
At the open:
The July corn futures trade 9 cents higher at $5.88 3/4, while the Dec. contract trades 14 cents higher at $5.20 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 19 cents higher $13.95, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 23 cents higher at $13.37. The July wheat futures are trading 12 cents higher at $6.21. July soyoil futures trade $0.35 higher at $48.80. The July soymeal futures opened $4.70 higher at $415.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.54 per barrel lower, the dollar is unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.
Mike
-----------
At 7:25am:
Technically, the July corn and soybean futures contracts could be looking at 'support' levels of $5.62 and $13.63 this week, according to analysts. With a higher start Monday, it seems unlikely we would reach those levels today. In addition, this afternoon't USDA Crop Progress Report is expected to show another decline in crop ratings. That would give the bulls some extra crumbs to chew on.
Now that some folks did get what I'm hearing was a $1 million rain, at least for their bone-dry crop, what does this do to your marketing psyche? If it rains again, and dumps another inch or so, does this tell the market the crop is well suited for July, at least? Have you at least picked up the keys to the lock on that bin? Or, do you see more upside? I pieced together a story with one analyst saying don't sell any corn at $5.10 (basis Dec.) and another urges farmers to consider some options positions. See the full story of Farmers urged to protect prices.
Thanks for sharing,
Mike
-----------
At 6:45am:
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.
Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.44 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen starting lower as enthusiam fades over Greece's center-right New Democracy party victory this weekend. Instead, the market is focusing on Italian and Spanish bond yields rising.
World Markets=Higher.
More in a minute,
Mike
