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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

Some people look at it as gambling. You don't need to own acres or machinery to be a gambler.

 

Some of us look at it as marketing and that is raising a crop at low cost and selling it at a better price. Our goals are not a home run but steadily knocking out doubles and triples year after year.

 

But that is Ok. Swing for the fence every time but not every one can afford the high risk.  BTW I hope you do well because that means higher prices will be available for the next crop.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

Good sale.  I Have never seen those kinds of basis levels here.

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Honored Advisor

Re: As near as I can tell mike

Ray; the

QE thing and the general fudamentals of a barely adaquate crop are still with us unless the Fed has started shrinking the money supply. As far as I know they still have that last 2 dilutions of the value of the dollar in place.

 

With $200,000 tractors and $400,000 combines $10,000 land I'm not so sure $6+ corn is out of line.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: As near as I can tell mike

Not saying that $6 is out of line either.....I know that, all things being equal, $6 corn can be purchased with wider basis levels than $4.25 corn!!  But there is a lot of "air" between $6 and $8 corn, too.....

 

had some $14,300 land in Jasper county last Saturday.....120A....92 CSR

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

Don, with crop RA insurance "doing nothing" is the safest.  The ins guarantee is $5.68 if you`re guaranteed 135bu that`s $767.   And if corn dropped to $2.50, in God`s country you`ll surely raise 200bu so 65bu X$2.50 is$162   plus $767 =$929 per acre...what more do you want??? In doing nothing your top side is wide open.  Corn buyers just never did bid enough for fall cash corn I don`t have the history but to get a $5.60 fall cash bid around here, it would`ve had to be locked in a year ago and IMO that`s irresponsible, I don`t even buy green bananas http://www.fccoop.com/   see even now fall corn is only 5 bucks whoopty-doo.  I know that you can buy "puts" and pay for them by selling "calls" but boy if it gets out of your range "you`d better be prepared to write some checks" as someone smarter that me said.   This is just my take but the market just tried to buy new crop corn too cheap.  When it`s below the ins guarantee of $5.68 you aren`t doing yourself any favors in contracting, the risk/reward doesn`t match up.

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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: As near as I can tell, Ray J

commodity prices EVERY year endear a number of  supposed "outside" influences.

 

Since it ALL though, is truely a part of the whole market schematic, the market "Runs What They Brung."

 

It's that simple ( check the July / Aug frames for 07, 08, 09, 010, 011 ).

 

Keep in mind, a seller is only as good as their last sale, as a buyer is only as good as their last purchase.

 

Keep in mind there are some who do not feel a $3 cash up move in something like corn is out of line.

Likewise, a $7 to 8 up in cash beans may not be out of line so to speak either.

On wheat, heck perhaps just double the current cash price and the afore may be the real world for grains in 012.

 

We'll see.

  

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