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Senior Advisor

Re: As near as I can tell mike

The poll shows that 98% of those polled are not going to do anything. When have you heard of 98% of farmers being right about anything?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

For what it's worth: I'm seeing weather outlooks for the 11-15 day that say the 'heat dome' is now expected to camp out in the Rockies. The Midwest will remain dry but maybe not as hot.

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

As neighbors to your south(NC Iowa), I feel for you in these extreme weather events. You guys get dumped on by twice as much as you need and we got nothing 2 hours south. Still chances in the forecast for the next couple of days. Hopefully storm tracks shift...MikeM

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

Just sold some corn for 7.03 a bushel. Waitin for seven paid off. I thought I would be sellin for 4 dollars the way some people made it sound on here. I got a little left so I am goin to try for 7.50 for the rest if it.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18, whole stage is set for a week of limit up

moves, followed by a 30 to 40 pt correction then another 3 to 4 days of substantial ups again.

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18


@Farmerjoe79 wrote:
Just sold some corn for 7.03 a bushel. Waitin for seven paid off. I thought I would be sellin for 4 dollars the way some people made it sound on here. I got a little left so I am goin to try for 7.50 for the rest if it.

Had we been in a "normal" weather situation the last two years you would have been in the 4 dollar area. Luckily for you many people are having crappy weather. Relying on weather calamities to achieve ones goals seems foolish to me. Whatever works for you is what's important though.

 

I get a kick out of a few people acting like that just KNOW the market is going higher constantly. As I mentioned, half way "normal" weather would have made these people look pretty silly. Nobody can predict the weather for months/years in advance. Crowing about how right they were is a hoot.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

Joe  Where are you ? We are located in north central Iowa. Cash corn is +21 over the j8uly which is $6.20 for june  $6.21 july delivery  and 4.94 for december.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

John, I don't think it's a matter of knowing 'exactly' what it's going to do. If you're an opportunistic marketer (and can afford to be one - some can't, but more can now than 6 years ago) then waiting for an opportunity in a market that has tension in it is a strategic decision. There is no 'normal' or 'average' weather. There is only weather. But there are trends. Beng on the dryside with little subsoil moisture is a 'trend'. Trends can be broken by rain, but a rain doesn't break the trend. Can you lose? Of course. So can the farmer trading on the idea of 'normal' or 'average'. In my experience watching the trends and being flexible as factors build that trend is a way to reap larger rewards than trading 'normal'. The trends were in place before planting. They have changed from area to area but, opportunities were promising as time went on. Trends are still intact. Weather that promised early planting were the same trends that indicated possibilities for price opportunities down the line. The price opportunities move geometrically while crop production issues move linearly. If production likelihood indicates a 5% drop in production means much more than 5% in price response. That's the opportunist's playground.

 

Yes, this can all be mirrored on the downside. 

 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

What is also incredibly foolish is marketing your crop on the basis of expectations and claims of bumper crops.  I recall in 2007 agents telling me forward contracting for $8 a bushel on canola wasn't bad, my response was "for who?"  I sold that 07 crop for an average of $14 and my last trailer load for $17 I also remember market experts preaching to Canadian farmers to dump their feed wheat a number of years ago because the millions of tons of it would preasure the market until it was out of farmers bins, sell your wheat for $1.80-$2.00 said the experts then, big global crops they said, alot of people sold, some of us didn't, I built bins to hold that last 25,000 bushels, four months later I sold half for $4.00, in around eight months the  rest for $6.00.   Contracting and selling grain at break even prices, small profits, or even a loss is about as dumb as anything.  I don't mind MT being a bull at all, at least he has the guts to gamble and farming is a gamblers game.  I'll tell you one thing its the guys that have optimism and talk fondly of the years the gamble paid off that encourage the next generation, people wonder why young people don't want to get into farming well a large part of it are those of you who constantly preach doom and gloom, and run around screaming protect yourself because the sky is going to fall.   Some of you guys should let your wives read the dribble you write on here, maybe at least you'd listen to them when they tell you your acting like little kids.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

It sounds like them guys are mad that I sold corn over seven. I wish I had not sold that corn now see ratings keep dropping. I have neighbors like you guys and they hate to see ya succeed in life, and they never get ahead in life cause they are to worried how other people are doin and should be worried about what they are doing. Kraft 97 over July goin to a feed mill did not want to mention any names but when you sell them a hundred thousand they perk up there basis a little better.
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