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Frequent Contributor

Re: As near as I can tell mike

Many farmers have known all along that it is almost impossible for the whole country to raise a good crop, especially when the weather is so far from the norm......Maybe 98% of us knew this and thats why we didn't believe the sky is falling (prices) cry......this comment just came accross on twitter:

 

So last year 70% Good to excellent rating in corn on this date, today we are at 63%.  Futures were $7 July and $6.60 Dec last year.  Last years final BPA 147

 

Maybe the traders in Chicago will start to listen to what we have been telling them?  What will ending stocks be if we average below 147?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

That's what the good ole USDA does they make you panic sell. Should be 7.50 corn right now for have a 7 percent decline from last year.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

"At 3:10pm:

USDA rates U.S. corn crop at 63% good/excellent. The soybean crop is rated as 56% good-to-excellent. Surprised?"

 

NOPE not at all. d you read my post about what I saw on my driveabout to eastern Ne yesterday? Then my post warning you about not all got a ra

 

 

It only takes 5% to make or break a market we have the very real potential to be able to play #'s like the Govt does expecting 166 maybe only get 145. That's a 12% decrease and NONE of the crop is made yet.

If this weather pattern presists what does 140 or even 139 do for the sell it before you plant it crowd?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

We will not have nothing left if we go under 147. That would be 1.7 billion bushel drop from 166 that's how close to livin on the edge we are on are corn stocks
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Veteran Advisor

Re: As near as I can tell mike

Last year's commodity prices bouyed by quantitative easing and a general commodity boom

 

I know you don't like to hear it, but corn wasn't really worth $7-8 last year without all that air under the market....

 

With a similar carryout, the true value of new crop corn is $5.50--6.00 this year....

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

That's why I said we better get that brazil corn over hear before china swipes it up.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

Farmerjoe while I understand your math one thing you got to remeber is the USDA also increased feed usage by 1 billion bushels so they left themselves a lot of leaway, they can always decrease feed demand to get back to a 800 million carryout like thisyear with a 147 corn crop. Ray I think most guys would be happy with 5 to 6 dollar corn I bet most guys average price was that anyway. MY 2010 was 6.75 and 2011 looks to be around 6

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Frequent Contributor

Re: As near as I can tell mike

Looks like the Bear got caught in the trap.......Now lets see if he gets made into a rug on the floor......

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Honored Advisor

Re: As near as I can tell mike

 I would think some kind of QE is in the wings, assuming Obama wants to be re elected.  EPA gives it`s official okey-dokey to E-15.  It`s a terrible thing when there has to be a drought for a farmer to get a fair price, but we must play the cards that we are dealt.  What frosts me is some of the advisors that got everyone sold early, will now not admitt that they made a "mistake" they will think up every "dog ate my homework" excuse in the book...and I`m specifically thinking of the chap out in Royal Iowa that got a `personal guarantee from  Elwyn Taylor that the national yield will be "162" `  I`m sure that`s news to El, he only gives probabilities Smiley Happy

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 18

cash corn in july/aug 011 brought 7 to 7.40 per. (crumby basis areas )

same marketeers are likely going to expect the same to 10% more dough this year. same frame.

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