Floor Talk, June 19, 2019

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 8 3/4¢ lower at $4.41. Dec. corn futures finished 9 3/4¢ lower at $4.53 1/4.

July soybean futures closed 10 1/2¢ lower at $9.03 1/4. November soybean futures settled 11 1/2¢ lower at $9.28 1/4.

July wheat futures finished 9 1/4¢ lower at $5.22 1/4.



July soymeal futures closed $5.10 per short ton lower at $316.90.

 July soy oil futures settled $0.04 higher at 28.37¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.29 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the July corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.46. Dec. corn futures are 5 3/4¢ lower at $4.57 1/4.

July soybean futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $9.09 1/4. November soybean futures are 5¢ lower at $9.35 1/4.

July wheat futures are 6 3/4¢ lower at $5.24 3/4.



July soymeal futures are $3.00 per short ton lower at $319.00. 

July soy oil futures are $0.14 higher at 28.47¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.11 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 26 points higher.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that investors are taking a pause.

“It is a bit of liquidation. We got options expiration, the G-20 meetings, the USDA quarterly stocks and planted area, and FND coming so we are backing and filling. I doubt we have seen the end of this rally, but we are in a pause that refreshes. Much more quiet today than in the last week, so people are taking it easy and waiting for the down move to show signs of turning before hopping back in,” Scoville says.

Mike

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At 9:15am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $4.44 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $4.55.

July soybean futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $9.10. November soybean futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $9.23 1/4.

July wheat futures are 11¢ lower at $5.20 1/2.



July soymeal futures are $4.20 per short ton lower at $317.80.

 July soy oil futures are $0.07 higher at 28.40¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.40 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors reacted negatively to the Monday Crop Progress Report.

“Traders are trying to determine just how many corn acres are getting planted. The confusion is coming from acres that actually got planted versus acres being designated as prevent plant. One factor from the Crop Progress report that will be very important in the next few weeks will be emergence. The US corn and soybean crops are still well below the five-year average for emergence,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “At some point soon, we should start to hear the concern about how far behind this year is when it comes to heat units for corn and sunshine for soybeans.”

What say you? Profit-taking Wednesday?

Thanks,

Mike

[roarintiger1]

Good grief Charlie Brown.   When it's June 19th and you are worried about CORN emergence, you are the ones who need to be worried about.

Me? I'm still waiting for that limit up day.  You know, a come to Jesus moment for the traders.

[rrfarms24]

Only a matter of time basis is 50 over around here already... the feed mills are battling ethanol everyday here...I think this will be the new record for pp acres too... if there isn’t better days ahead around here the stuff that’s around me won’t make it anyway and there isn’t much... way too many acres put in late and the old saying of one extreme follows the other watch what happens to this crop if it does get dry across the parts of Illinois Indiana and Ohio that have been wet all spring... I know they say Ohio doesn’t matter but the other 2 do!!! 

[swmi]

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@rrfarms24 wrote:

Only a matter of time basis is 50 over around here already... the feed mills are battling ethanol everyday here...I think this will be the new record for pp acres too... if there isn’t better days ahead around here the stuff that’s around me won’t make it anyway and there isn’t much... way too many acres put in late and the old saying of one extreme follows the other watch what happens to this crop if it does get dry across the parts of Illinois Indiana and Ohio that have been wet all spring... I know they say Ohio doesn’t matter but the other 2 do!!! 

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[swmi]

 Where is that five dollar corn? I just got done spraying herbicide and looked at the board it’s down about a dime. Do these traders ever get out in the countryside? In southern Michigan if you got 3 inch tall corn you are successful. I need a chisel to dig in to my ground I had to mud The corn in and the ground is like concrete. Not going to be a good season in this area.

[timetippingpt]

Patience, our buddies in the money flow business bought almost 3 Bil bu in the last 24 tdays. The massive >2.5 Bil spread trade position only increased, (meaning the fireworks have not yet been lit). You just seldom get limit up when there isn't really a shortage of corn TODAY. There will be soon enough, just got to give it TIME....

Study history, it takes time for users, especially users, to believe in reality. They are conditioned in 8 or 9 out of 10 years to expect producers to produce, and fear is always punished. You shouldn't expect them to give up on 9 years of mental conditioning in 2 weeks! 

This was an easy sell-off to see coming. Wheat was the key, collapsing Open Int, on declining momentum, on the rally. What comes next is a pretty murky. The producers need to remember that rain does in fact make grain, don't hit the screen, it does make grain. Since we have never had a year like this one, the users are rightfully in a panic, thus basis is 50 over. It is only week 4 of the rally, way to early for it to be over, but way over done in the last few weeks.

jmo

[illinifarmer]

Problem we’re seeing is it hasn’t even begun to sink in yet.  Most of us having been posting for 3 months on conditions and shortages of acres only to see it get worse.  Markets have reacted in pennies for months not weeks.  Where’s the dollars ?  Not one day of even close to limit up.?.  Up 3 cents a day and down 10+ a day doesn’t add up.  Most of these traders are so upside down because of the season shift they are making money at every downturn and positive swing. It’s a joke. I have seen enough farmers go bankrupt it’s time to see these guys upended for a change.

[futurestrader92]

Traders love volatility.  They make more money the more volatile a market becomes. I assure you, I'm doing fine on this upswing and I guarantee the big funds are as well. When they start getting long futures, then it'll get interesting.