Floor Talk June 19

[marketeye]

At 11:40am:

Informa, the private analyst firm, released new estimates ahead of the June 30th USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports.

                      Today              Last Month          USDA March

Corn               88.777 mln         88.7 mln           89.2 mln

Beans             86.760 mln         87.2 mln           84.6 mln

So, what do you think? Pipe up, say something!

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 4 3/4 cents lower at $3.53 1/4 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.68 3/4 per bushel. 

July soybean futures closed 6 1/4 cents lower at $9.71. Nov. soybean futures settled 2 1/2 cents lower at $9.39 3/4.

July wheat futures ended 1/2 of a cent higher at $4.88 1/2.

July soymeal futures closed $3.50 per short ton lower at $323.10. July soyoil futures settled $0.30 higher at $32.55.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.00 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 94 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session, the July corn futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $3.52 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 5 cents lower at $3.68 per bushel. 

July soybean futures are trading 1 cent lower at $9.76. Nov. soybean futures are trading 2 1/2 cents lower at $9.39.

July wheat futures 1/4 of a cent lower at $4.87.

July soymeal futures are trading $3.20 per short ton lower at $323.40. July soyoil futures are trading $0.56 higher at $32.81.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.24 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 55 points lower.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity, Director of Grains and Energy, says today’s weakness is spurred by recent weather outlooks.
“A little drier extended forecast (June 29-July 3rd) which could allow some of these late acres to get seeded is pressuring prices. But, the trade is a little nervous to press prices too far down because we still have a wet weekend ahead of us,” Ward says.
The private sector still believes corn has huge potential with upside from USDA’s latest 166.8 bpa estimate. “But, we are losing some confidence in USDA’s 46 bpa soybean target,” Ward says.
 
INFORMA, the private analyst firm, released its updated U.S. 2015 Acreage Estimates Friday. The firm sees corn acres at 88.77 million, equal to its estimate last month, below the USDA’s March estimate of 89.2 million.
For soybeans, the firm pegged acreage at 86.76 million, below its May estimate of 87.2 million, and above the USDA March estimate of 84.6 million.
“The firm showed less corn acres and soybean acres in their report today vs. its May estimates (viewed as supportive, but not bullish),” Ward says.

Mike

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At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.20 lower.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, investors bet on Greece's bailout talks.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed to higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[roarintiger1]

Both Informa numbers are too high...... Why do I think this?     There are acres that are going to be unplanted and there are going to be acres that were planted and have gotten drowned out and not replanted.  

[CitiFarmer]

These could have been June 1 intentions but weather may have changed things.  Do you know if these are what Informa felt was intended or their updated numbers taking into account the weather since June1?

My personal figures are 88.250 on corn and 85.0 on Soybeans with 55.7 of total wheat acres.

[childofthecorn]

The bean acres from Informa are Way To High.  Those acres could only be planted if there was drying  weather let planting take place.There are acres that are planted and aren't drowned out but yield will be down. Areas out side of the drowned out holes will be down.  Also beans don't like wet feet.  Have had over 5 inches in the last 16 days.

[WCMO]

And, acres planted later that don't have the yield potential of those planted earlier.  Field cultivated some in between rains, just to try to get the ground to dry enough to plant more beans -- volunteer beans were R1.

[ECIN]

Yes I feel the same that both numbers are high - I finally got a hold of a friend down in Texas - near Tulia - He raises cotton and corn - scrach that - or I should say - both - it got late = he planted milo - as - he said just about everybody else did to - then thorw in the rest of the problem childs .

C-O-Corn - the flooded acres don'y matter in the planted acres - it was at one time planted - so I figure that will count to the total acres - for now - thats why some use what ? Like 91 percent to come up with harvest acres ??

I do know that the USDA numbers run behind about a month from real time - so I just wonder how much it will or could change

Some dangbig boomers headed this way from SW Indiana - reports of Tornado's down that way - along with high winds and hail - bte it's headed our way - but you know - with the ground as wet as it is - - the corn shouldn;t green snap - it will just roll over in the mud