Floor Talk June 20
At the close:
At the close, the July corn futures finished 1/2¢ higher at $3.54 1/4. December futures finished 1/4¢ higher at $3.75 3/4. July soybean futures ended 1/2¢ higher at $8.89 1/2. November soybean futures closed 1/2¢ lower at $9.10 1/2. July wheat futures settled 9 3/4¢ higher at $4.99 1/4. July soy meal futures closed $1.30 per short ton lower at $333.20. July soy oil futures finished 0.52 higher at 29.37¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.15 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points lower.
At mid-session, the July corn futures are 5 1/2¢ lower at $3.48. December futures 5 3/4¢ lower at $3.69. July soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ lower at $8.80. November soybean futures are 9 1/4¢ lower at $9.01. July wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $4.88. July soy meal futures are $5.40 per short ton lower at $329.10. July soy oil futures are 0.39 higher at 29.24¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.36 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points lower.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that news stories continue to favor the bears.
“If we continue to get bearish news but prices do not head lower, then many traders will view this as the first step of marking a major
low,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers Wednesday.
Kluis added that the grains have been on a true roller coaster.
“On Tuesday, the July soybean contract had a 64 cent range while corn had a 19 cent range. Soybeans ended the day down 19 while corn was down 2 cents. The wild swing sure feels like the market has reached 'capitulation'. That means we had a big spike in volume while prices traded wildly during the day, but came back to end the day considerably better than the low. The panic selling seen on Tuesday may have been what the market needed to establish a major low.”
On Wednesday, the U.S. weekly ethanol output is on the rise, according to a Renewable Fuels Association press release.
In early trading, the July corn futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.52. December futures 2¢ lower at $3.73. July soybean futures are 1/4¢ lower at $8.88. November soybean futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $9.09. July wheat futures are 1/4¢ lower at $4.89. July soy meal futures are $1.10 per short ton lower at $333.40. July soy oil futures are 0.30 higher at 29.15¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.87 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.
Soybeans and grains rose overnight as bargain hunters snap up supplies. Some end-users see it as a good time to buy while some speculative investors who held short positions bought back and closed their contracts. Beans gained about 2 cents, corn added a penny and wheat was up 5-6 cents overnight. Jeffrey Xu, the managing director of Overseas China Investment, said during a speech at the International Grains Council conference in London today that China can use less soymeal in livestock feed and seek supplies from other countries to offset its lack of purchases from the US as the trade spat between China and the US escalates. In weather news, much of eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and southeastern South Dakota are under flood watches or warnings due to excessive rain in the area. More precipitation is on the way, the National Weather Service said. Get all the details in today's 3 Big Things.
West Texas Intermediate = up 0.2%.
Brent Crude = up 0.2%
Dollar = up 0.1%.
Wall Street = U.S. stock higher pre-market.
World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight.
On The Side
This seemed like a good time to get out of the market. I had earlier reversed corn, quickly found out that was an error and got out of corn at a profit (but not nearly as much as I might have made) and took profits by buying back part of my beans. That was also profitable but a dumb move in hindsight.
Overnight I bought back the rest of the soybeans so I'm aside. My thinking is it's hard to envision any more negative news in the market short of a black swan event. It seemed to me the likelihood is that as trade issues get resolved prices might grind higher. If weather turns bad prices might go up but so far weather has been not a major factor when you look at the big picture.
I'm not sure I see any certainty to another trade in the near future. If the China tariff business gets resolved there will likely be a bounce and maybe one can sell it but my track record on predicting and taking advantage of summer trades is not excellent.
Re: On The Side
Well the markets open within the US and we see where the selling to drive the market contracts are coming from.... Up overnite and down hard at the open very predictable. And at this point all non ag money. I doubt there is any hedging at these levels -- that would be in the $7+ range at the elevators. Guess we might as well see how far they drive it.
Re: On The Side
Really to bad all hauling of all but contracted grain couldn't stop for 10 days. Don't call the buyers...Not a peep from us.
Let basis fix it.
Ten day moratorium...(At least)