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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, June 21, 2019

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 7 3/4¢ lower at $4.42 3/4. Dec. corn futures ended 7 1/2¢ lower at $4.53 1/2.

July soybean futures closed 12 3/4¢ lower at $9.02 3/4. November soybean futures closed 13 1/2¢ lower at $9.27 1/2.

Sep. wheat futures finished 1/2¢ lower at $5.26.



July soymeal futures closed $7.40 per short ton lower at $315.60.

 July soy oil futures ended $0.15 lower at 28.44¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.38 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points higher.

 

Mike

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At midsession, the July corn futures 1 1/4¢ lower at $4.48 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $4.58 3/4.

July soybean futures are 8¢ lower at $9.07. November soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ lower at $9.32 1/2.

Sep. wheat futures are 3/4¢ higher at $5.27 1/4.



July soymeal futures are $3.20 per short ton lower at $319.80.

 July soy oil futures are $0.09 lower at 28.50¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.42 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 9:45am:

This afternoon, the CFTC Report will be released.

"We think the Commitments of Traders report will show the funds long 200,000 contracts of corn or more. However, their record long is 429,000 contracts, so they still have a lot of potential buying power," Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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  At 9:20am:

 

In early trading, the July corn futures 1/2¢ higher at $4.50. Dec. corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $4.60.

July soybean futures are 5¢ lower at $9.10 1/4. November soybean futures are 5 1/2¢ lower at $9.35 1/2.

Sep. wheat futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $5.29.



July soymeal futures are $1.70 per short ton lower at $321.30.

 July soy oil futures are $0.05 lower at 28.54¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.30 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are .62 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the market could trade sideways for a while.

“We had a nice rebound in U.S. grain prices on Thursday. However, we seem to be in this sideways trading channel. We really have not come out with any new fresh bullish input, yet grain prices continue to keep a premium since this year's U.S. crop is still a huge question. Export demand continues to slow, however. Since the crop size is very uncertain, we expect to drift sideways,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

 

Mike

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At 7:43am:

 

It's raining like cats and dogs in southcentral Iowa, right now. Wow! Weather guy tells me it's the last big storm, in this string that we have had this spring. Summer starts tomorrow, right, so it makes sense.

7212019Weather.png

Source: KCCI.Com

 

Overnight:

Corn was down 1¢, Soybeans were off 6¢, while wheat fell 2¢.

 

What say you?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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6 Replies
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 21, 2019

In what scenario does the market stay green?  What kind of a catastrophe would it take in your opinion to trade up for let’s say two weeks?  I would really like to see the sell contracts dipping this market to know how many are actually grain bushels vs. paper.  IMO I just can’t see anyone selling at these prices knowing what’s in store, (or should I say not in store) for this fall.  Most farmers influenced by media and analysts were suggested to be 40% sold.  Most with unfilled contracts will be footing quite the bill this fall with little to no product.  Just what they needed another loss.?.  I can only imagine the lack of guilt on most of their parts.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 21, 2019

illinifarmer,

 

I can think of two surefire ways these markets stay in the green. First, a 'final' and I mean 'final' agreement with China on tariffs. I see a bump coming from USMCA getting finalized. But, it's the China trade agreement that the bulls really want to feast on.

Secondly, growing weather. Investors now shift focus from planting weather to growing weather. The planting weather put on over $1.00 in both corn and soybean markets, right? Now, the growing weather takes front stage. And, if the growing weather mimics the planting weather, you have yourself a lot more green.

Absent one or both of these, kickback in your recliner and watch these markets go sideways until the combines roll.

 

That and a cup of coffee might get you a day old doughnut. This is simply from my market window.

 

Mike

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, June 21, 2019

let´s say the growing weather is very good ; can we see $ 1 down again in soybeans??, therefore we go back to around 1st april prices??? or at máximum we can go down 0,5 ??

this questions assuming US-china Will continue negotiations

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 21, 2019

Negotiations   -  that  word  has  been  redefined ,   and  replaced  by  stalemate ,  rumor ,  and  guess  again - maybe ?   

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 21, 2019

Combine  yield  monitors  will  be  disappointing , at  best  at  harvest  -  and  just  60  days  ago  the  words  Prevent Plant  were  being  chuckled  at  in  our  conversations  -  -  -    

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, June 21, 2019

a bump coming from USMCA getting finalized

That could be a while before final acceptance.

Mexico has ratified it but Canada is coming up for election this fall and Parliament will be in recess until after the election with little chance of ratification before.

So then it will be next fall and what if there is a new group in government and will they be happy with the deal that is on the table now.

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