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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

Mizzou_Tiger,

 

I just posted a snapshot of a pivot running in western Illinois Wednesday. The guy that sent me the photo says the crop is really needing moisture and the city folks can't water their yards enough to get them to look green. A lot of brown yards, he says. So, believe me, there are no blinders on here. Keep in mind, I don't work for the Warren County newspaper. I'm not on the local police blotter beat. You want just local news coverage, you will not get that from me.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

At 7:45am:

Looking into the eastern Corn Belt, it appears that strong band of rain is petering out, according to this hour's Freese-Notis Weather Inc. radar:

InterRAD-2.gif

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

I guess the wheat has taken the place of corn for now?   When will wheat price itself out of rations and we go back to corn?  

Do other countrys feed US wheat or are they feeding someone elses and using ours for bread?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

Get used to it. We are in Nebraska. We can be burning up and no one east of the Missouri River cares.

Everything is back yarditis. That is the most improtant because it is -- to us. It doesn't matter what happens nationwide if you have no or little crop to sell. Actually, haven't had "no crop to sell" since 1974 & 1976.

 

We do have irrigation, but it does not replace a good soaking rain. And a good share of Nebr. is dryland. And a crop failure here (50 BPA) is not what it is in Woden, IA -- 150 bushels.   Smiley Happy

 

Most pivots in "my backyard" were going last week before we got a good rain (1.75) June 15. Got another 1.5 to 2.0 yesterday so we are sitting good. The bad news is between those two rains there were mid 90's temps and 30 mph winds (24 hours per day). We have our town celebration the last weekend in June and any time we are irrigating before then is not a good sign for the summer.

 

Another point that most of you non-city types already know:  that green on the radar doesn't really have any rain in it to speak of. It only gets the weather guy off the hook -- "I told you it was going to rain."   I hate to rub in the irrigating thing, but we don't turn it off (in mid summer) unelss it rains more than .50 inches.

 

Good luck in the ECB.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

highyields,

 

Posed your question to a floor trader. So, here it is, right from the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade.

 

"The wheat questions are difficult as there are so many different classes…when you look at Chicago wheat its SRW and this is fed in some areas.. but when Egypt buys it for food… HRW is primarily for food.. but can get fed into the Southwest  where corn basis tends to be very high. But, the sentiment is changing in wheat. We have quietly lost 30 mmt of world wheat production since the marketing year began and this is coming mostly out of the World exporters production. The US is where the surplus resides. So, look for large wheat exports from now until Jan 1. We think wheat is fair at 1 to 1.50 above corn. This is supportive for corn, as is the weather despite the recent rain. Most are happy to sell corn, with better weather counting on the large acres and rationed ethanol demand. But, we are losing yield. The average guess right now is 159-161. If you get below 155 the implied corn surplus is gone.
Meanwhile, the large crop loss in South America beans, last winte,r is being felt more and more with interior premiums in Brazil now above exporters bid. This is effectively cutting off bean supplies from SA.
The most bearish thing for corn that I see at the moment is the declining energy markets. Those weak marketa are putting index players to the sidelines. Notice the steady leak in index interest in commodities. It's not germain to the over-all fundamental for crops if weather is threatening, but it does effect short term money flows."

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

   The problem with ethanol plants and feed mills sorcing corn is everyone in the world is bidding above the CBOT. Most ethanol plants are bleeding red . The CBOT has lost touch you can't even get corn delivered. When corn is being physically traded  plus 70 right outside board of trade delivery points what does that tell you. CBOT is not a credible market.  So the market tries to even up for one or two days every thre months? Why not take deliveries? You can't get them to give you the corn. THEY DON'T HAVE IT. Its better to provide a rumor or two on Friday.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

I don't get the math being used by your "analyst".  We have added acreage over last year by a significant amount.  Demand has struggled of late.  Trend line looks to exceed last year by whatever number you want to use.  I believe whatever scenario we use, the carryout is going to grow in a significant way.  Even IF parts of the ECB doesn't contribute in the way they historically have (which I feel for you all) they will have something.  There are areas that are going to be well above normal.  ND, SD, MN looks to help out in a way they historically haven't in the past. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

Question?

 

Ok why not buy corn on the "board" and then NOT offset it and demand delievery?

The delievery points are in the "east" where the basis is the most positive.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

"Trendline looks to exceed last year by whatever number you want to use."

 

 

"Light is on......nobody's home."

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 21

  I don't think there were any physical deliveries in March or May.  I'm not close enough. Have done it with oats out of Minn. If  you are 200 miles from delivery pts it would be worth it. Feruzzi tried to do it and the had the CBOT on its knees untill one of Illinois finests judges money can buy put the clamps on them. There is always a politician or judge in Illinios with there hand out

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