Floor Talk June 23

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 7 1/2 cents higher at $3.67 per bushel. The Dec corn futures settled 7 3/4 cents higher at $3.81 per bushel. 

July soybean futures settled 2 cents lower at $9.87. Nov. soybean futures ended 1 1/2 cents higher at $9.60 3/4.

July wheat futures finished 20 1/4 cents higher at $5.21.

July soymeal futures settled $1.70 per short ton lower at $331.90. July soyoil futures closed $0.10 lower at $32.82.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.38 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are trading 5 1/2 cents higher at $3.65 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 6 1/2 cents higher at $3.80 per bushel. 

July soybean futures are trading 4 1/4 cents lower at $9.85. Nov. soybean futures are trading 3 cents lower at $9.56.

July wheat futures are 10 cents higher at $5.11.

July soymeal futures are trading $3.60 per short ton lower at $330.00. July soyoil futures are trading $0.15 lower at $32.77.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.99 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.

Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC grain analyst, says that the soybean market is reacting negatively to the avoided Argentine port strike. “This may have gotten some of those corn/bean spreaders to reverse,” Johnson. If you look at a chart of that spread, it looked like heavy liquidation of the long corn, short bean position leading into yesterday.  That has been a very popular trade, because every carryout projection is calling for soybeans to gain stocks at a much faster pace than corn this year.”
He adds, “When corn was planted without issue and the final soybean acres have been delayed it has forced a lot out of that position.  Even last week's COT report showed the funds adding corn shorts and liquidating bean shorts. Today's action may just be that post liquidation correction of the corn-bean spread.”
Wheat may be leading corn higher, he says. “Europe’s Matiff wheat market was very strong, leading our futures higher,” Johnson says.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 3 1/4 cents higher at $3.63 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 3 cents higher at $3.76 per bushel. 

July soybean futures are trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $9.87. Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 1/4 cents lower at $9.58.

July wheat futures 5 3/4 cents higher at $5.07.

July soymeal futures are trading $4.30 per short ton lower at $329.30. July soyoil futures are trading $0.11 lower at $32.81.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.02 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points higher.

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.03 lower.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, investors eye Greece's bailout.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed to higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

Brazil's Sugarcane Production Estimates:

Here's a report from Platts, an ag information service in Brazil. I thought the ethanol production information, in this release, was interesting. Remember, Marketeye has learned that Brazil is building more corn-based ethanol plants. Interestingly enough, I have also heard that the appetite to grow corn is fading, due to drought and low prices. Anyway, for what it's worth:

Bullets:

--Cane crush: 41.42 million metric tons (mt)
--Sugar production: 2.14 million mt
--Total ethanol production: 1.795 billion liters (ltr)
--Hydrous ethanol production: 1.091 billion ltr
--Anhydrous ethanol production: 705.67 million ltr
--Sugar mix: 42.16 %
--Ethanol mix: 57.84%

Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the first half June are expected to total 41.42 million mt, with mills focused on ethanol production, a Platts survey of analysts showed Monday.
 
The range of analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned from 40.5 million-42.5 million mt. Brazilian sugarcane industry group UNICA is expected to release its bimonthly sugarcane harvest data Tuesday.
 
Claudiu Covrig, an analyst at Kingsman, forecast cane crush within the analysts' consensus at 41.4 million mt and cane yield measured by total recoverable sugar (or ATR) at 128.85-125 kg/mt, about 3.8 kg/mt higher compared to the previous fortnight as dry weather should have helped the cane to build up sucrose.  Kingsman is the agricultural analysis unit of Platts.
 
In terms of sugar mix expectations, Covrig said he sees only a small recovery, with sugar mix probably at 42.4%, up from 41.2% in the previous fortnight. Hydrous ethanol continued to pay better than sugar, with sellers interested firstly in the cash spot ethanol market.  
 
"Generally speaking as we advance into the harvest and approach the peak of the crop, we should see more sucrose diverted to sugar production but actual global sugar prices which are below production costs even in the most efficient producer (now CS Brazil) are leading Brazilian producers to limit their increase in the sugar mix," Covrig said.
 
As a comparison, last season H1 June was characterized by a 45.2% sugar mix, about 2.8% more than Kingsman's expectation for the same period this year.
 
The poll showed analysts expect sugar mills to have focused on ethanol production, with ethanol representing 57.84% of the cane crush in the June 1-15 period, with sugar at 42.16%.
 
An average of analysts' expectations points to the following: sugar production of 2.14 million mt and total ethanol output of almost 1.8 billion liters, with hydrous ethanol output remaining over 1 billion liters. Anhydrous ethanol production should recover to some 700 million liters, the highest so far this season.
 
The focus on ethanol production, particularly on hydrous, is explained by the need to satisfy increasing demand from flex-fuel drivers for the standalone biofuel and the need for mills to capitalize faster.

Mike

[jec22]

What is the facts behind using ethanol to make anhydrous?  Is it feasable in the U.S.? 

[sw363535]

Just a matter of taking the water out of the ethanol........distilling it to higher ethanol concentration so there is no water content in the product..

anhydrous is just the state of being without water...

maybe I am missing something