Floor Talk June 23

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 5 3/4¢ lower at $3.87 1/4, Dec. futures finished 6 1/4¢ lower at $3.97 3/4 per bushel. July soybean futures settled 13¢ lower at $11.24 1/4, while Nov. soybean futures closed 15 1/4¢ lower at $11.01 1/2. July wheat futures ended 4 1/2¢ lower at $4.54 1/4. July soymeal futures closed $7.80 short ton lower at $383.20. July soyoil futures closed $0.20 higher at $31.75.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.01 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 165 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are 5 1/2¢ lower at $3.87 1/2, Dec. futures are 5 1/2¢ lower at $3.98 1/2 per bushel. July soybean futures are 1/4¢ lower at $11.37, while Nov. soybean futures are 1/4¢ higher at $11.17. July wheat futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $4.57. July soymeal futures are $2.20 short ton lower at $388.80. July soyoil futures are $0.11 higher at $31.66.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.40 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 178 points higher.

Mike North, President of Commodity Risk Management Group, says that today’s lower market activity is a result of a classic fund exit. 
“If there is any lesson that can be learned in the last couple of days, it is this - Fund money is fickle!  It moves like a herd of buffalo,” North says. As a few leaders in the herd move in one direction, the rest of the herd follows.”
With the mild adjustment in the weather forecast Sunday night, the exit of managed money began, North says. 
“The herd followed and prices have drawn back in normal fashion,” North says. 
With technical support being violated at nearly every level of the corn chart, the next one to be tested is $3.90 in September corn, he says. 
“We bounced off of $3.89 1/2, for corn, this morning.  If that can hold, technical buying will become a conversation, as we head towards the June 30 reports,” North says.
Soybeans have fallen, but not to the degree of corn, opening the spot Soybean/Corn ratio to 2.93:1. 
“Historically, this attracts spread trading that brings these two together.  While lower, soybeans have exhibited strength relative to the corn market in recent days.  Again, remember that fund money is fickle.  Any new rallies that come will be opportunities for producers to address old and new crop sales,” North says.

Mike

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At 10:40am:

USDA released market-friendly weekly export sales numbers Thursday, with corn, soybean and wheat sales within trade expectations.

Wheat=  465,200 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of 300,000-615,000 metric tons.

Corn=  1.421 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 950,000-1,400,000 metric tons,

Soybeans=  1.322 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 900,000-1,650,000 metric tons and

Soybean meal=  186,500 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 150,000-350,000 metric tons.

Mike

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At 9am:

If you missed it, the USDA announced a fresh sale of U.S. corn.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 138,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea. Of the total 69,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2015/2016 marketing year and 69,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are 5 3/4¢ lower at $3.87, Dec. futures are 5 3/4¢ lower at $3.98 per bushel. July soybean futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $11.32, while Nov. soybean futures are 10 1/4¢ lower at $11.06. July wheat futures are 3/4¢ lower at $4.58. July soymeal futures are $1.50 short ton lower at $389.50. July soyoil futures are $0.01 lower at $31.54.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.54 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 148 points higher.

Mike

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British voters are at the polls, leaving us to wonder whether our friends across the pond will decide to stay in the European Union or leave. It'll be interesting to see what happens either way, with both sides predicting doomsday for the UK should the other side win. In the US, Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave two days of testimony to senators, indicating that the domestic economy has a lot of downside but also a lot of upside. As predicted, she was cagey and gave no indications about future interest rate hikes. Investors across all financial sectors are expected today to play wait-and-see on Brexit. 

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = 1.6% higher. 

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 1.4% higher.

Dollar = down 0.5%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks improve as investors optimistic UK will remain in EU.