Floor Talk, June 24, 2019

[marketeye]

At 3:28pm:

USDA Crop Progress Report Monday indicates the corn and soybean crops remain unplanted and well behind on conditioning.

USDA Crop Progress Report

Thanks,

Mike

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Big Week Ahead:

Today, USDA Crop Progress Report

Thursday, Weekly Export Sales Report

Friday, USDA June Acreage Report & Grain Stocks Report

In between, weather events.

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At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 4 1/2¢ higher at $4.46 3/4. Dec. corn futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $4.57 1/4.

July soybean futures closed 6 1/4¢ higher at $9.09. November soybean futures finished 5 1/4¢ higher at $9.32 1/4.

Sep. wheat futures settled 12¢ higher at $5.38.



July soymeal futures ended $2.00 per short ton higher at $317.60.

 July soy oil futures settled $0.09 lower at 28.35¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.23 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.

Thanks,

Mike

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At 11:55am:

I received a road report, this morning, from an Agriculture.com fan favorite.

Brad Henry, University of Minnesota, Technological Leadership Institute, says that his drive from Minneapolis to Mason City to Cedar Rapids to Mt Vernon Friday (June 21) and back, has him scratching his head.

“I am not a crop expert but the best corn fields we saw (between 5 and 10%) where smaller than a normal year's size and the majority were well under a foot high. Most of the beans were barely emerged.”

Sound familiar?

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the July corn futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $4.46. Dec. corn futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $4.58.

July soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $9.09 3/4. November soybean futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $9.33 1/4.

Sep. wheat futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $5.34.



July soymeal futures are $2.60 per short ton higher at $318.20.

 July soy oil futures are $0.08 lower at 28.36¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.32 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 43 points higher.

Mike

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At 9:38am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.45. Dec. corn futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $4.58.

July soybean futures are 4¢ higher at $9.06 3/4. November soybean futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $9.31.

Sep. wheat futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $5.33 3/4.



July soymeal futures are $2.90 per short ton higher at $318.50.

 July soy oil futures are $0.16 lower at 28.28¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.10 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points higher.

What do you think?

Mike

Mike

[rickgthf]

What do I think?  Well, a couple of years ago I spent time making multiple regression analysis of crop condition reports vs final yield.  The results of that suggested a less-than-trend yield.  In the end, the USDA announced a record yield greater than trend.  Since then I've been careful about predicting yield based on crop condition reports. To be fair, it was a decent crop weather year  that year, unlike this year but who knows what's ahead.

[Hobbyfarmer]

U asked...

On crop tour.

Southern Iowa to I 74 to Indianapolis

East into Ohio

North through Ohio

Back across 14, 114, 24 to 39 north to I 80

Corn just coming up beans not up

Corn waist high beans foot tall ( these two in extreme minority)

Not as many unplanted acres as expected, many waisting seed.

Beans as a rule closer to double crop than a full season crop. Half two inches or less

Gonna need perfect weather and a thanksgiving frost date....

[roarintiger1]

I think we are looking at a total corn crop of less than 12 billion bushels and a soybean crop less than 3 billion bushels.

I also think that the current prices are not nearly high enough.