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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk June 25

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 10 cents higher at $3.76 1/2 per bushel. The Dec corn futures closed 11 3/4 cents higher at $3.92 1/4 per bushel. 

July soybean futures finished 18 1/2 cents higher at $10.02 1/4. Nov. soybean futures finished 21 3/4 cents higher at $9.77 3/4.

July wheat futures closed 14 cents higher at $5.32.

July soymeal futures closed $8.70 per short ton higher at $336.70. July soyoil futures closed $0.09 higher at $33.36.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.34 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 75 points lower.

Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says that Beans are rallying because funds were caught short 100,000 contracts, old crop ending stocks will eventually be below 300 million bushels, and new crop production is iffy with 6 million acres still unplanted. "The hidden hand of the market is telling producers to plant those bean acres even if they have to do it late and with less than full crop insurance coverage.  Of course if they get a good yield on those beans they will be punished on the price later."

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are trading 7 3/4 cents higher at $3.74 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 9 cents higher at $3.89 per bushel. 

July soybean futures are trading 17 3/4 cents higher at $9.99. Nov. soybean futures are trading 19 1/2 cents higher at $9.75.

July wheat futures 8 1/4 cents higher at $5.26.

July soymeal futures are trading $7.90 per short ton higher at $333.90. July soyoil futures are trading $0.03 higher at $33.30.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.71 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points higher.

 

Traders say the rally is based upon the shorts getting out of their positions, pre-USDA Report, while looking at less than ideal weather.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 4 3/4 cents higher at $3.71 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 4 3/4 cents higher at $3.85 per bushel. 

July soybean futures are trading 12 cents higher at $9.93. Nov. soybean futures are trading 13 3/4 cents higher at $9.69.

July wheat futures 5 cents higher at $5.23.

July soymeal futures are trading $5.50 per short ton higher at $333.50. July soyoil futures are trading $0.23 higher at $33.50.  

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.07 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points higher.

Mike

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At 7:50am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Thursday:

 

Wheat= 435,600 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 200,000-400,000 metric tons.

Corn= 794,300 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 550,000-1,100,000 mt.

Soybeans= 321,300 mt. vs. the trade's expectations of 350,000-800,000 mt.

Soybean meal =316,800 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 75,000-350,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

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At 6:50am:

Well, it rained all night in most of the state of Iowa. Dry today, but the rains reappear tomorrow. In the last twelve hours, here are some rainfall amounts for spots in central and southern Iowa:

 

Ames, Iowa=  2.64"

Wayne County, Iowa=4.00"

Adel, Iowa (just west of Des Moines) =7.00"

Guthrie County, Iowa = 6.00"

 

Some real good ground in some of these areas. Some decent sized hail was reported in that big storm yesterday and last night too. The market won't know of the real damage for awhile. But, my guess is, we will start to build in some weather premium, due to the first half of July expected to be continued wet for the eastern and southern Corn Belt.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

 

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.09 lower.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, investors eye Greece's financial crisis.

World Markets = Europe stocks were mostly higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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22 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

welcome to the party

 

30 plus inches since early May here, just west a few miles over 35 inches since early May.  calling for 1-5 inches here tonight.

 

question I have for you.  a good chunk of the cornbelt has been hammered for several weeks.  fringe areas have been hammered for two month.  all of a sudden your backyard gets hit once and the market now needs to build premium in?

 

wake up, you and most of your trader friends are way late to this party

 

12.2 and 3.2

 

there are two things that wreck a crop.  too much rain in June and not enough in July

 

this might actually be the year that a 4th of July rain is bullish not bearish

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

Mizzou_Tiger,

 

It's not just my backyard that has been getting hammered. In the past week, I've had a northern Illinois farmer tell me that some bean acres won't get planted, parts of Indiana have had too much rain, Extension agents out of Ohio are reporting extensive flooding. And now, some very highly productive land in Iowa is getting soaked.

Not just my backyard. And speaking of waking up, you and I both know that flooding in Missouri does not get the attention of the market like flooding in the I-States. I didn't make that psychological rule up, but I'm sure you are an educated student of the markets to know that much.

Also, I should have said more weather premium, because the soybean market put on 30-some cents in June, due to weather causing planting concerns.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

Got news for everyone......It might very well be a small weather market now. But in the near future it's going to be a rather large demand market for a much smaller supply than everyone was for sure going to happen.  Smiley Wink

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

20 years ago MO didnt count

 

10 years ago MO barely counted

 

today every acre has an influence.  some more than others

 

50% of 6M acres not in the ground has influence

 

and you just proved my point.  there are other areas from west to east that have been getting hammered for weeks now.  IA has one bad night and now the market has your permission to build in premium?

 

fact of the matter is, traders are disconnected and frankly shouldnt be allowed to play casino royale with the livilihoods of the people that feed them.

 

same question to you that i ask GIO.  Are you going to have to take PP on any of your acres this year?  Hows your corn and soybeans look?  And flooding issues?  Or is everything looking good on your farm

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

Being a little hard on old Marketeye aren't you Tigger?  He explained to you his thought process and I agree with him 100%.  We all know how traders perceive things right or wrong.  In their minds Missouri does not count.  Not twenty years and ago and not now.  Throw some weather woes at an I state and they get excited.  Not defending that position but it is what it is.  Marketeye did not say he thinks markets should take notice because Iowa got hammered.  Your Little Man's syndrome or anger at living in the shadow of Iowa and Illinois has clouded your judgment.  The problems you have been dealing with all spring have been slowly spreading to the north and east.  I don't think anyone has had it as bad as you but things do continue to deteriorate in places where things have been extremely good up until about ten days ago.  I don't think Marketeye, myself, or anyone else on this board is discounting what you have experienced this spring but you don't have to be so arrogant about it either.

 

The long range forecasts don't really show anything that is going to improve the situation anytime soon.  In fact it kind of reminds me of 2009 summer weather.  Cool and wet.  There are a lot of things that are different from 2009 but starting to wonder if July and August will be similar.  Have felt all spring that we could turn hot and dry east of the Mississippi in July and August, but current forecasts do not seem to bear that out.  I think you are a little low on your 12.2 corn number at this time but we could easily get there.

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Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

you and I both know that flooding in Missouri does not get the attention of the market like flooding in the I-States.

 

Heck I hadn'd even heard of Missouri till I saw it on the weather Channel and there rain event this spring - So they grow corn there huh ???   Just how big a state is Missouri ?  Is it like Maryland in size ?? Smiley Happy 

Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

Who had a higher state corn average last year?

Iowa or Missouri?
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

MT,

 

Things are looking very good and we are not late for the party.  I think we initiate it.  Just because we do not buy because there is total collapse on your farm does not mean the market has to go up.  One person does not move the market and one person does not produce all the beans in the world.  

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 25

Gio

You guys (traders) initiate nothing

Farmers do

If we didn't grow a commodity you wouldn't have anything to trade

Your entire existence hinges on the fact farmers grow a commodity.

Traders are nothing more than uninvited squaters
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