Floor Talk June 26
At the close:
The July corn futures contract closed 1 3/4 cents higher at $4.42.
The Dec. corn futures finished 3 1/4 cents higher at $4.43.
The July soybean futures contract finished 21 cents higher at $14.37.
The Nov. soybean futures settled 15 cents higher at $12.44.
Sep wheat futures closed 1/2 of a cent higher at $5.84.
The Aug. soymeal futures contract settled $8.80 per short ton higher at $445.80. The Aug. soyoil futures finished $0.13 lower at $40.63.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.62 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points lower.
The Sep corn futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $4.38.
The Dec. corn futures are trading 4 cents higher at $4.44.
The July soybean futures contract is 14 1/2 cents higher at $14.30.
The Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 3/4 cents higher at $12.37.
Sep wheat futures are 3/4 of a cent higher at $5.85.
The Aug. soymeal futures contract is trading $4.20 per short ton higher at $441.20. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.01 lower at $40.75.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $1.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 74 points lower.
At the open:
The Sep corn futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $4.37.
The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 3/4 cents higher at $4.41.
The July soybean futures contract is 16 cents higher at $14.32.
The Nov. soybean futures are trading 10 cents higher at $12.39.
Sep wheat futures are 1 cent higher at $5.85.
The Aug. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.80 per short ton higher at $442.80. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.06 higher at $40.82.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.37 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 4 points higher.
USDA Weekly Export Sales Thursday were all strong, with most beating expectations:
Wheat= 359,500 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 300,000-455,000 metric tons
Corn= 553,500 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 125,000-450,000 metric tons.
Soybeans= 774,900 vs. the trade's expectations of (100,000)-100,000 metric tons.
Soybean meal= 253,400 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 0-180,000 metric tons.
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.45 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen slightly lower, ahead of cosumer spending, personal income and unemployment benefits reports.
World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.
More in a minute,
Re: Floor Talk June 26
Stocks of corn are building but soybean stocks remain historically tight. While corn used for feed will be a major focus of the quarterly Grain Stocks report released Monday, June 30, soybeans will take center stage.
"The main question is how tight will soybeans get in June, July and August," says Dan O’Brien, agricultural economist with Kansas State University.
The average trade estimate for quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 is 378 million bushels, down 557 million bushels from last quarter’s 992 million bushels and 13 percent smaller than last year’s 435 million bushels.
That doesn’t leave end users with a lot of soybeans this summer if ending stocks are to remain at 125 million bushels, a number USDA does not like to dip below. To reconcile its balance sheet, USDA has been increasing soybean imports.
The Balance Sheet Dilemma
While 125 million bushels is not the lowest overall carryout, this year’s stocks-to-use ratio is at a record low, O’Brien says. The lowest carryout was in 1976-77 at 103 million bushels. At that time, the stocks-to-use ratio was 7.2%. In the 2003-04 crop year, the carryout fell to 112 million bushels, and the stocks-to-use ratio dropped to 4.4%.
"With increasing usage, this year is the first time that the soybean stocks-to-use ratio has been as low as 3.68%," says O’Brien. "How many brooms can we go through sweeping out the bins?"
At the same time stocks are low, U.S. exports of beans continue to be robust. USDA’s latest projection for soybean exports is 1.6 billion bushels. As of the week ended June 12, 1.59 billion bushels of soybeans had already been shipped. With only 11 weeks left in the marketing year, U.S. exporters will only be able to ship another 10 million bushels without USDA further increasing imports or decreasing the carryout.
Re: Floor Talk June 26
Here are the current export totals for you. And, I didn't have to go to website X to get it. So, I was wrong, slightly behind on corn.
Soybeans - 1.671 billion bushels vs USDA projections of 1.600 bb
Corn – 1.85 billion bushels vs USDA projections of 1.900 bb