Floor Talk June 27 #waterlogged

[marketeye]

At 10am:

Corn is up 2 cents, soybeans are down 14 cents, and wheat is up 7 cents.

Mike

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At 5:41am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.15 per barrel higher.
Dollar= Lower.

Wall Street=Seen slightly lower.

World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

I've heard that farmers in western Iowa believe excessive rainfall has taken the top off of their crop's yield potential. Well, that sentiment may be extending into central Iowa. It' almost like if you came into the house, last night after doing chores, jumped into the shower and stayed there until breakfast this morning. It's been raining that long in Des Moines and the surrounding area. Flooding is occurring, and it is still raining as of 5:45am. Whew!

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

Graphically speaking, these maps from Mesonet show the excessive rainfall that has occurred in central Iowa. I wouldn't  be surprised if some folks have received 5-6 inches, maybe more.

Here's the latest radar at 5:45am Friday.

Anybody have any rainfall amounts from your on-farm rain gauge?

Thanks,

Mike

[ECIN]

Moring Mike - BTW Do they think that second line in will hold and come thru your area ? If you look back at it - it appears to be bowing out = high wind event . Hope not

Thanks

[Hobbyfarmer]

85 hundredths ...so far

Higher amounts up river, waiting to see how that turns out

All the old timers always said any year that has a June with five Sundays = floods.on this river.

[marketeye]

ECIN,

Good morning. Local weather lady says rain is expected to move eastward.

Mike

[Wind]

5.5 inches here on the farm.  That was enough to finish the crop off if I could spread it around for the next two months but most of it went down the Raccoon River.  I'm hoping it killed the flush of little grasshoppers I was seeing.  A lot of rain forecast here for the next 4 days.  I just might need that slow pontoon boat to do a little crop scouting!!  We where looking at a very big crop here but that will change if  more heavy rain, that is  forecast, happens.

[Canuck_2]

Mike; just let you know not everyone is wet.

I have totalled 25 mm in June and it took 11 days with at least a trace to do that.

Biggest rainfall in 24 hours was 5mm

BUT others have had rain.

City of Toronto had 50 mm in a short time the other evening and flooded streets again.

Others near me have had too much rain too.

Showers can be quite variable from the front to the rear of the farm.

[Blacksandfarmer]

Mike, I got a call from a trusted grain buyer a couple days ago. He said they believe corn will be somewhat neutral and beans could get beat up in the next report. He must have been hoping I would forward sell a few more bushels of beans, but I am comfortable with the amount I have sold ahead. The rest will probably be sold at harvest price. As of today "Maryland" A.K.A  the eastern cornbelt (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan) could have another bin buster in corn. Its too early to tell in soybeans.

[bkadds]

Question is if beans get hammered will corn hang in there even if it is neutral in the report? Old crop corn gambling bushels that we have left might be a homer or strike out come Monday. Thoughts?

[CitiFarmer]

bkadds, if they are gambling bushels, I would not do anything or buy a $4.30 AUG Corn put for a cost of $.10-$.11.  It may be hard for SEP corn to rally with a bearish soybean report - especially if it is bearish soybean stocks.  If you are in a corn deficit area, you might recoup the cost of the put back on added basis gains if corn futures fall based on the reports.

Just one thought and I am not sure if it is a good one but a neutral soybeans report and tighter than expected corn stocks could see some buying return to the corn market.