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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

Not sure if it's time to sell just yet..........It seems that the funds are just now taking interest.....USDA has told them time and time again not to worry....we are growing a record crop out here.

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glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

If the market is indeed trading 147 per bushel corn, as Mike quoted someone yesterday, and if the USDA report is higher than that, I think Friday could be very bearish.  Not sure if that will happen and I don't make predictions.  But I remember last year at this time, everyone (on here at least) was so bullish because of the spring flooding, then the report comes out and boom!  July corn 80 cents lower, limit down on the nearby months, a freaking bloodbath. 

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

glvt isn't friday's report just an acreage report. I don't think we'll see a yiled forecast until the July report.
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

NEW crop corn bids are now $1.25 higher than just 10 days ago when there was still setiment for selling new crop for 5ish or less.

 

Corn prices are still a good dollar under last year and the wetness problem was nowhere as bad as this years dryness problem IS.

 

Before you get carried away is being sold out take a trip out west and south. Start where ever you live and turn around at Colby, Ks then drive I70 to ST Louis then SE to Paduka, Kentucky then home. Report back and tell us if a premature ejack... I mean sale would be a good Idea.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

FWIW, I read this morning from an analyst where some 88 day corn has been harvested in Arkansas.  He didn't put a number on the yield they received but said it was pretty good.  AgResource I believe yesterday said they're comparing this year to 1988 when the highs were set in July and were followed by an extremely long tail.  It would make sense as last year it was August with a really long tail.  The most interesting thing with regards to the futures is how the inverted market has all but disappeared.  Traders trading the old crop new crop spread are being beaten to death here. 

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

I am not a wise market person never can figure out ahead of time where it will go so I sell when it looks like a good price and sell in increments through the year trying to stay away from sales when the price is down.

So I came in a few minutes ago and called my corn buyer.

Sold another small increment, about 5% of both old and new crop.

OC at $270/t is not a mistake even if it goes higher and it is the highest price yet for 2011 crop for me and I still have 30% left to sell before this collapses. Plan is to continue to sell 5% each day it rises.

NC at $225 I can live with and I do have a good crop in the field and we are not desparately dry here just need a regular shower to keep us in 100% shape.

 

There is a report the end of the week which could be a reason to drop the price and if we go through the weekend with areas still dry in corn land I will be selling more next week.

 

Is my plan good or how do I improve? Remember i do have at least an average crop at the moment and probably a little better than average.

Tempted to put in bids scaled up but it moves so fast some days I am willing to watch and try to let it run and then call a sale.

May be selling the last at the bottom but heck that will be another learning experience.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

Everyone has their own way of marketing.  For me, I tend to market or make sales when everything is extremely bullish.  Last August was one of those times.  I see now as being one of those times.  My 12' sales are pretty much locked up unless yields are better which they more than likely are, but I don't like to presell more than about 180-190 bushel irrigated corn because of our high hail risk here.  I am trying to get some roughly ten percent 13' corn sold today for 5.80.  If 13' hits 6, I'll be getting a considerable amount on the books.  We are dry and have been dry, but amazingly enough our dryland corn could still be a good crop if we catch a decent rain in the next ten days.  We've seen some pretty hot days with yesterday coming in around 107 or something like that.  However, the nights have been relatively cool with nightime temperatures dipping into the mid to lower 60's.  Even when it gets hot, it does it really late usually hitting our highs for the daytime temp around 4:00-5:00 in the evening.  The cool nights and slow warm ups have saved the dryland corn crop thus far.  This is what will more than likely give us record yields on irrigated corn unless someone has a short well.  Even though the early harvested wheat was about average, once the rest of us got into the wheat fields we found above average wheat.  The early harvested wheat may or may not have been a disappointment, but the rest was really good even though it endured a lot of heat with little moisture.  There's still time at least here for dryland crop saving rains, but the window is getting smaller by the day.   

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CitiFarmer
Veteran Contributor

Re: Moisture Forecast showing more rainfall

Mike, is this the forecast you mentioned as arriving at 9:00 AM?

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

 

 

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

As long as the weather is dry and a date and amount for significant moisture AND a change in weather patterns is forecast (or the strong possibility) this market will trade the weather. It won't matter what numbers USDA piuts out as we all understand the USDA info lags by some days at a minimum and does not take into account what could happen in the future. In fact, they cannot take into account the future of a weather pattern at this stage. True, they have to start the year somewhere, and acres and trendlines are significant at that time. B ut they can't be held to the idea they have a crystal ball and are just refusing to tell us the future for 'political' or other reasons.

 

If the shorts get entirely forced out by margins and continuing dry weather there is the possibility of an explosive, if short term, run. Then the market would probably have to pause and look for the possibility of percip relief or let the rest of the market catch up.

 

The reality is that physical sales may dry up for a bit until people have some idea of the length of time it will take to see if this is a temporary situation - or an historic one.

 

PS - I delivered some wheat priced this winter, sold a bit more at 35 cents higher than that and am shipping unpriced wheat. I noticed Japan is shopping for a significant amount of feed wheat. A bit unusual. But corn is worth much more than wheat on a 60 lb bu basis - and i suspect the exporters have huge margins tacked on as they have the last two years.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

There are a couple of parts that will be traded from this report.  While the yields won't be traded because they were as of June 1st, the acres on corn will be traded.  The acres on soybeans may or may not be traded much as some will discount the double crop soybean acres.  If we see corn acres similar to what Informa put out a week or two ago, it might put a little pressure on the corn market.  Mostly we'll trade weather unless the acre numbers show a surprise. 

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