cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Tony_Dreibus
Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk June 27

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled unchanged at $3.52. December futures closed unchanged at $3.73. July soybean futures finished 1/4¢ higher at $8.67. November soybean futures closed 1 1/2¢ higher at $8.89. Sep. wheat futures ended 5 1/2¢ higher at $4.88 1/2. Aug. soy meal futures closed $0.50 per short ton lower at $332.30. Aug. soy oil futures closed 0.07 higher at 29.01¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.96 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points lower.

 

Mike

------------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.53. December futures 1/4¢ higher at $3.73. July soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $8.69. November soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $8.90 1/2. Sep. wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $4.87 1/2. Aug. soy meal futures are $0.70 per short ton higher at $333.50. Aug. soy oil futures are 0.16 higher at 29.10¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.45 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 123 points higher.

 

Mike

--------------

At 9:00am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.54. December futures 2¢ higher at $3.75. July soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $8.74. November soybean futures are 7¢ higher at $8.94. Sep. wheat futures are 6¢ higher at $4.89. Aug. soy meal futures are $3.40 per short ton higher at $336.20. Aug. soy oil futures are 0.12 higher at 29.15¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.33 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 139 points higher.

 

Mike

-----------

Soybeans were higher overnight trading as end-users and investors grab cheap supplies. Beans added 9 cents, corn was up 3 cents and wheat gained 5-6 cents overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Commodity Weather Group released its seasonal outlook and noted that it's going to be much drier in the Midwest after a very wet June. Missouri will be unusually dry, as it has been for the past several weeks, and looks to be developing as the trouble spot in the Corn Belt. The weather the rest of this week is going to be hot, hot and hot. Heat advisories are in effect for all of Missouri and parts of surrounding states. Temperatures and heat indexes will reach well into the triple digits today and tomorrow, the National Weather Service said. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things

 

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.9%.

Brent Crude = up 0.9%

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock lower pre-market.

World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.

0 Kudos
11 Replies
JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

from the 3 big things comment on drought:

 

"The biggest risks for negative corn and soybean yield impacts are, however, limited to patchy areas, mostly in Missouri, eastern Kansas, North Dakota and Michigan, the forecaster said. Some patchy dry spots in the southern Delta may see a rebuilding of soil moisture as a wetter-than-normal pattern looks to be forming for July."

 

Missouri grows, what, 4% of the US corn crop?  North Dakota how much?  Anyone in those areas is obviously concerned and local basis may be high but one doesn't get the feeling the overall crop will be affected in a significant way.

0 Kudos
greatlakes farmer
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

What percent of the crop is pollinating during this heat wave? Even with adequate moisture I wouldn’t think that is going to be a positive yield factor. Granted plant health is great going into the stress so maybe it’s not much of a factor. Just a thought.
0 Kudos
WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

NASS Data from 2016 -- state rankings for corn production

 

http://beef2live.com/story-states-produce-corn-0-107129

 

__________________________________________________________

 

And, those of us in the 'insignificant' or 'fringe' areas for corn production are well aware that we don't necessarily impact the overall perspective, especially when viewed from Chicago or one of the "I", or 'important', states.  However, one must also consider that even if Iowa produces 20% of the corn crop, 80% is still produced elsewhere.

 

 

JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

Yes, 80% of the corn is not grown in Iowa.  And 96% of the corn is not grown in Missouri.  This is not a question of who has the best football team or nicest state flag.  It is about the story that says Missouri may be very dry.

 

My point is that if Missouri is very dry, that is not a reason for corn producers to assume all the corn prices should go up.  As mentioned, corn basis in Missouri may well go up but CBOT corn prices may be affected very little.

 

The story cited could be read by some to give the impression that were was going to be a significant dry area in the corn producing area.  My point is that is not supported by the facts.

 

 

0 Kudos
WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

"Missouri will be unusually dry, as it has been for the past several weeks, and looks to be developing as the trouble spot in the Corn Belt. The weather the rest of this week is going to be hot, hot and hot. Heat advisories are in effect for all of Missouri and parts of surrounding states. "

 

Sure would be nice if they are wrong about this.  Lots of corn around here tasseling over the past several days.  At least we got a little rain here yesterday, not enough for any run-off, not enough to offset much of the June deficit, but it was wet for a day, now have some moisture in the dirt beneath the corn canopy, and should help to keep the soil temps down during the heat, at least for a few days. For those who desperately needed the rain and missed out, my sympathies.  As for the rest of the story, let's just say the roads are already getting dusty again, and the neighbors are cutting wheat.

 

Actually had someone call me 2 days ago to ask about chopping corn silage while his corn was still green (not tasseled, but not dead yet).  Yesterday, he texted that he got some rain, so some new hope, at least for awhile.

 

Most of the crops in this area look surprisingly well (so far) when considering the heat excess and moisture deficits.  Corn wasn't planted "early" due to cold temps, but everything got planted quickly when the weather changed, pretty much all planted on corn before Mothers Day, and soybeans before Memorial Day. 

 

Doubt if the drought monitor map changed much, though hopefully enough rain to the southwest that some of that "severe" drought area got reduced.

0 Kudos
WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

Not disputing "the facts", that's why I posted the list of where the corn gets produced.

 

And, taking in all the excessively or abnormally hot/dry areas, not just focusing on a "local" problem, IF the potential production loss represents a total of just 5% of national production, where does that leave us on production, yield, price?  Especially IF the above-normal production in other areas is insufficient to offset?  And, now, what if there has been excessive rain, significant flooding and/or hail damage in some of those "good" areas?

 

 

0 Kudos
WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

chart

 

 

chart

 

 

chart

 

0 Kudos
Blacksandfarmer
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

Missouri is dry, Northern Iowa, Southern Minnesota, Southern Michigan, Northern Indiana, Northern Ohio are very wet. Too much rain normally yields better overall than too little rain. I only see the market moving higher this year for extreme heat.

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 27

Fringe areas only matter/count when they raise a great crop.

 

They never hold us back, just contribute to the "massive over supply" .

 

That is rule five of thirteen in the speculators hand book.

0 Kudos