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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

At the close:

At the close, the Sep. corn futures are 5 1/4¢ higher at $3.59 1/2. Dec. futures ended 5 1/4¢ higher at $3.71 1/4.
 
Aug. soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $8.63 1/2.  Nov. soybean futures closed 3 1/2¢ lower at $8.80.
 
Sep. wheat futures closed 17 3/4¢ higher at $5.01 1/4.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.80 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials closed 55 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 11:22am:

USDA SAYS:

 

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2018 corn acreage at 89.1 million vs. the average trade estimate at 88.56 million and the USDA's March estimate of 88.02.

For soybeans, the USDA estimated the U.S. farmers planted 89.6 million acres vs. the average trade estimate of 89.69 million and the government's March estimate of 88.98 million.

June 1 Grain Stocks


In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. June 1 corn stocks at  5.306 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 5.27 billion bushels and last year's stocks at this same time of 5.22 billion.
For soybeans, June 1 stocks were pegged at  1.22 billion bushels, compared with 1.2 billion and last year's 966 million bushels.
The USDA estimated 2018 June 1 wheat stocks at 1.11 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 1.09 billion and last year's June 1 total at 1.18 billion.

 

TRADE REACTIONS

 

--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that the reaction was far more interesting than the actual report. 

 

“The stocks report perhaps a little negative to corn, neutral to beans and wheat.  The planted area report was negative to corn for sure.  Kind of friendly to beans, but negative to wheat,” Scoville says. 

 

Scoville adds, “Yet, the markets are up and that implies that the bad news is in for a while.  Pretty interesting around here!  I had been talking maye a slight reduction in corn acres, that sure didn’t happen  It will be a very interesting close.”
 
--Mike North, president Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the stocks report provided very little by way of surprises.  

 

Corn stocks were up 1% from June 2017.  Prior to the report's release, analysts expected the number to total 5.276 Billion bushels.  The USDA put forward a figure of 5.31 Bbu.  Soybean estimates were very much in line with expectations at 1.22 Bbu, just 16 million more than the average guess.  All wheat stocks were 7% lower than a year ago at this same time.  They were just 9 million more than the average analyst expectation by registering a total of 1.101 Bbu.  All in all, stocks were in line with expectations.

Acreage was the largest variable.  The USDA estimated that farmers would plant 88 million acres of corn in the March Planting Intentions report.  In 5 of the last 7 years, the USDA has raised corn acres in June.  Analysts wagered on that historical probability by tendering an average guess of 88.4 million.  The USDA held to their tendency by raising their June Corn Acreage estimate to 89.1 million acres.  Soybeans also were elevated to 89.6 million, 600,000 more than the March estimate, but 100,000 less than the average analyst guess.  Wheat acreage was reported at 47.8 million acres, 500,000 more than the March figure and 600,000 more than the guess.  Cotton acres were left unchanged from March at 13.5 million.

 

Mike

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At 6:41am:

 

It's here. The big report day. What do you think is going to be printed by the USDA?

 

Here is what while you were sleeping, regarding the markets.

 

In overnight trading, the July corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.47. Dec. futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.68.

 

Aug. soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $8.68.  Nov. soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $8.85.

 

Sep. wheat futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $5.03. 

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.14 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 93 points higher.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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14 Replies
Honored Advisor

Drago wind

  1. 20180628_181330-1.jpg
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Honored Advisor

Re: Drago wind

Two bins in background also  ruined . Warped clear to the cement.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drago wind

Should've left them full.   

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Drago wind

rt - did you hear if they came up with a cause for the bin collapse in New Carlisle, OH?

 I have googled it a few times but haven't seen an update.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drago wind

Another bin site barely  a mile from me20180628_140710-1.jpg

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Honored Advisor

Re: Drago wind

All totaled just within sight from my mail box 4

45,000+ bu bins are scrap.

Smaller bins damaged or blown away, thousands of trees mangled

Machine shed just gone to the ground,  several homes with shingles on west or north side of house just gone too.

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Advisor

Re: Drago wind

USDA thinks they wereSmiley Surprised

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Drago wind

sure the farm news media thought they were full too...............and the specs that listen to that bunk think they are full too

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Senior Contributor

Re: Drago wind

I have heard of a derecho wind storm but never a drago wind.  And the damage looks like that of a strong derecho wind storm.

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