Floor Talk June 29
At the close:
At the close, the Sept. corn futures closed 1/2 of a cent lower at $3.92 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 1/4 of a cent higher at $4.02 1/4 per bushel.
July soybean futures finished 1/2 of a cent higher at $10.02 1/2. Nov. soybean futures finished 6 cents lower at $9.80.
Sep. wheat futures closed 15 1/2 cents higher at $5.83 1/2.
August soymeal futures finished $0.80 per short ton lower at $334.00. August soyoil futures ended $0.20 lower at $33.11.
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.26 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 278 points lower.
At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $3.93 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 1 1/2 cents higher at $4.03 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 3 cents higher at $10.05. Nov. soybean futures are trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $9.83.
July wheat futures 12 3/4 cents higher at $5.80.
August soymeal futures are trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $335.60. July soyoil futures are trading $0.02 lower at $33.29.
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.39 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 229 points lower.
Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group senior market analyst, says that the farm markets are still primarily driven by weather, with some noise about Greece and the Chinese stock market thrown in.
“Markets are highly volatile as a result. We are also seeing positioning, before the crop condition reports tonight and all of the data tomorrow,” Scoville says. Some of my long specs and hedgers are booking some profits today in corn, not so much in the other markets.”
Brazil farmers are quieter in the market, today, after a big week last week, he says. “They want to see what happens next, as they did not expect this kind of rally.”
The volumes on the globex electronic platform are pretty decent, Scoville says.
“Looks like somewhat drier weather is coming, so that will provide some downside risk. But, I doubt we do much until we see the crop ratings for all three tonight, along with beans planted progress.”
Trade activity will still be reduced until about 11:00 tomorrow, Scoville says.
Farm markets are all higher. Speaking of higher, did you see Bryan Doherty's scenario for $12 soybeans? It's nice to dream, right? And it's not that much of a stretch, do you think?
In his own words:
"From a fundamental perspective, it gets easier and easier to argue for a bullish turnaround on beans. Should four million acres be unplanted, this could equate to roughly 200 million bushels worth of production, or a reduction of 200 million bushels in carryout, down from 500 million to 300 million. Drop the yield by two bushels per acre on the crop, and carryout could be somewhere between 100 and 150 million. Throw any weather concern on top of that, and bean prices are off to the races, as an upside objective of $12.00 would loom large, the area where prices ran out of gas last summer."
See Bryan Doherty's full story at Winds of change from soybean to corn market
At the open:
At the open, the July corn futures are trading 3 cents higher at $3.88 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 3 cents higher at $4.05 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 5 cents higher at $10.07. Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 cent higher at $9.87.
July wheat futures 12 cents higher at $5.74.
July soymeal futures are trading $3.20 per short ton higher at $344.50. July soyoil futures are trading $0.10 lower at $33.12.
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.93 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 142 points lower.
If you missed it, the CFTC Report Friday showed money managers adding a lot more soybean long positions than the trade expected.
Managed money traders added over 28,000 net corn contracts last week ending June 26. More than 63,000 net bean contracts were added, and nearly 16,000 net soymeal on the week. Soyoil lost 20,800 net, with Chi wheat – 5,700 and KC wheat dropping 1,400. Producers and merchants shed 37,000 net corn, along with a -57,000 net beans and –17,500 net meal, while adding 15,500 net oil.
Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 7-8 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $1.48 lower.
Wall Street = Seen lower, as the Greek financial crisis spirals out of control.
World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.
More in a minute,
Re: Floor Talk June 29
Sounds like Spain and Portugal are in this too. ATMs in Greece are running dry, they`re only allowing $67 per day per person to be taken out.
The grains haven`t tanked yet as i`m writting this anyway 🙂 The 90 day forecast sounds wet and cool, corn that looks good now might like that, but not good for the beans.
Re: Floor Talk June 29
Even before the deluge of rainfall, controlling weeds was a huge problem. For some folks, I wonder if yields are going to be cut from massive weed breakouts?
I'm hearing whispers of bullishness out there, regarding the markets. From its low, the soybean market has rallied $1.00, while corn (adding 40¢ last week) has seen a nice rally. Funds caught short may be trying to clean up their portfolio, before the month and fiscal quarter ends.
What are your thoughts on tommorow's USDA Report?
Re: Floor Talk June 29
hey Mike, i only know what they tell me and that is that this report is only good as of June 5th, maybe acres at that date were intended but didn`t end up getting planted even yet. So they might have to resurvey Missouri and Kansas later. Some think that traders only think "rain makes grain", I think they are more sophisticated these days, they have boots on the ground and eyes in the skies in the bad areas.
Things in NCIA look good and SMN look fantastic along I-90. However there is a slight yellow in even the best fields where maybe N leached a bit. Beans are at a point where they are tired of wet feet and could go either way. No PP ground around here, corn for the most part was planted in April, which is good if this is a replay of `09.