Floor Talk June 30, 2020 (Report Day)
At midsession, the Sept. corn futures are 11 1/2¢ higher at $3.40 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 12 1/4¢ higher at $3.47 3/4.
Aug. soybean futures are 14 1/4¢ higher at $8.76 3/4. November soybean futures are 16¢ higher at $8.77 1/2.
Sep. wheat futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $4.92 1/2.
Aug. soymeal futures are $3.90 per short ton higher at $287.50. Aug. soy oil futures are $0.16 higher at 27.94¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.12 per barrel lower at $39.58. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points higher.
Corn, Soybean markets jump 16¢, as a result of the USDA numbers
June 1 Stocks
In its report, USDA pegged the June 1 corn stocks at 5.22 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 4.95 billion bushels and last year's 5.2 billion.
For soybeans, June 1 stocks are estimated at 1.39 billion bushels vs. the trade's estimate of 1.39 billion and last year's 1.78 billion.
USDA pegged the June 1 wheat stocks at 1.04 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 987 million bushels and last year's 1.08 billion.
On Tuesday, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn plantings at 92.006 million vs. the trade's expectation of 95.14 million and the USDA's March estimate of 96.99 million.
For soybeans, the USDA sees U.S. acreage at 83.82 million vs. the trade's expectation of 84.83 million and the USDA's March estimate of 83.51 million.
All Wheat comes in at 44.2 million.
--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that today’s USDA report could cement a bullish slant for the corn market.
“The news is the corn planted acreage number, which, assuming trend line yield, trims the corn balance sheet by almost a half a billion bushels. Corn is king, and there were near record shorts on the futures side, which means today’s price rally in corn could support the whole grain complex for a while,” Gilbertie says.
--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that today's stocks estimates are a little negative, with the corn number above trade expectations. But, the planted area estimates were very bullish and are taking the attention of the trade.
“Corn planted area at just 92.0 million acres was below all trade estimates by a wide margin and a reason to rally and rally hard. Beans planted area was up slightly from March, but not nearly what the trade had expected. So, the plantings report was very bullish everywhere and makes weather that much more important, since we have less planted area to deal with. We will soon return to the negative demand news and the weather as guides for the way forward, but the lower acreage is the surprise and is getting all the attention right now," Scoville says.
In early trading, the Sept. corn futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.31 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $3.38 3/4.
Aug. soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $8.65 3/4. November soybean futures are 4 3/4¢ higher at $8.66 1/2.
Sep. wheat futures are 1/4¢ higher at $4.86 1/2.
Aug. soymeal futures are $0.50 per short ton lower at $284.10. Aug. soy oil futures are $0.08 lower at 27.70¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.69 per barrel lower at $39.01. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 72 points lower.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching today's USDA report and the new weather forecasts, for price direction.
"The grain markets closed higher with corn gaining back all of the Thursday/Friday losses. The U.S. stock market posted an impressive rally back, and the extended weather forecasts turned hotter and drier," Kluis told customers in a daily note. The USDA Crop Progress report showed corn and soybean ratings improved by 1% while the hard red spring wheat ratings were 6% lower.
Kluis added, "The trade has built pretty bearish expectations into the grain stocks report numbers that are out today. I think it will be important to watch the price action in corn and soybeans from noon into the 1:15 PM close. At this low price level, it may be hard to get a negative reaction to a bearish report."
"Watch the extended weather forecasts for the southern and western Corn Belt. The weather models on Monday show the heat staying around for 5 to 8 days. No 100s in the forecast yet. Instead it is an extended heat pattern that stays between 95 for the high and 72 degree for the low, which may take a toll on corn yields," Kluis stated.
Re:92 million corn
92 million corn, granted ND lost 1.1 million but most of the other high acre states gained some. Those that lost were pretty much spread out amongst the second tier corn states.
The fact that even if ND had managed to plant that extra million acres it still would have been 93, not 95. That suggests to me that grain farmers are becoming cautious and responding to low prices.
Re: Re:92 million corn
It suggests to me that the NASS boys/girls missed the mark again, but no one is complaining today.
I'd wager that within another hour or so, someone like you or Dave, will point out that it is an election year
Re: Re:92 million corn
I'm a little bit curious about the numbers but really haven't broken them down.
Not really on either side of this but I generally counsel that it is folly to fight city hall, regardless what you may think.
Never let good news go unpunished
Didn't take long to punish us...
Half the corn rally is uncapturable here at least, basis was increased within minutes.
Bean basis also increased.
Just supposed to be a lifestyle right?
Wife with job in town so there is food on the,table?
Re: Never let good news go unpunished
Generally just reducing LDP and crop insurance exposure at this point- not a big difference to producers.
We'll see what the weather sez.
Re: Never let good news go unpunished
Yep short lived for sure. Compensation for months of trading flat to lower and mere pittance. However, Wall St. just posted best quarterly since 98’. So as the country continues down a path of turmoil and 52 % not working, we see the rich getting richer and a lot more getting poorer. Shame for the 99%.
Re: That still begs the question, where did the acres go?
What we do know, without any question, is that this is the most lowdown, dishonest, corrupt administration in American history.
But whether they would and could fudge these numbers is unknowable to me. We might find out something some day.
Seems a silly little beach to die on, but they are in freefall and feeling heat over the trade failure. So you never know.
Re: Floor Talk June 30, 2020 (Report Day)
For a few years now we`ve all been hypothesizing that with below C.O.P that the fringe will cry "Uncle!", perhaps this is the first radar blip of that occurring? Wide basis, low test weights and bad weather...the "carrot" that got them to plant in the past has now became a "stick" that they don`t want to get beaten with another year.
In good "I State" regions there`s a noticeable amount of oats/alfalfa seeded, some $10,000 land has been fenced for small cow herd pasture. In the past, hay was cheap and could be bought way less than growing. The winter hay auctions had guys writing out big hay checks ....and some maybe did the math. That could account for some missing acres.
But to those hoping for low grain prices to help your guy in the election, don`t despair the projected carryover went from over 3 billion bushel to a carryover in the high 2 billion bushel. However, you Biden boys better learn a rain dance, because if the nat yield becomes 165/bpa the carryover could be around 1 billion, hello $5 corn and President Trump`s second term 🙂