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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

Hey Mike how are you,

                                     I do not disagree that any crop over 13 billion would add to the CO. However, this year we are experiencing what happens with a tight CO, 45 cent plus basis in Minnesota.....wow. So we better beat that 13 billion and increase that carry-out or expect the market will need to add another dollar or two to the new crop prices come fall. I am neither a bull or bear here at $5.50 Dec futures, but I highly doubt we take out the $5.12 spring low in the Dec......And considering the prevent corn acres and the million acres already lost in Iowa alone, I got the corn crop at 12.5 with average weather......bigger with perfect weather, smaller if the heat returns in July and August, like many in the climate game predict.....I like this 5.50 area for the center of a trading range until the future weather unfolds.......but doubt the bottom falls out or we explode higher, until at least JULY shows itself......JP

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

John From S. MN.,

 

Good to visit with you again. You're right, basis has exploded this year, for both corn and soybeans. I've heard that it is coming off of its highs, but still very attractive. Everyday, I hear of another story of acres lost, abandoned or having to be replanted. For instance, the latest story comes out of Carlisle, Iowa. The farmer says he has lost over 1,000 acres of bottom ground. It's located along the Des Moines River that is out of its banks, in places. Keep in mind, there are a lot of low-lying areas along the Carlisle-to-Des Moines line. But, still, that is 1,000 acres and nothing to sniff at. In addition, I had to explain the current situation of the planting/growing season to a foreigner. Here's how I put it:

As the U.S. Corn planting nears completion and half of the soybeans, it’s time to think about the growing season. The crops are off to slow and late starts. The markets will be watching the “growing” weather now to see if this crop can get back on the right track. There are rumblings, not being reported, about how much damage there is to early planted crops and to those seeds that are buried in flooded fields. But, the market is not trading this. Will it ever trade it? Not sure. But, from Minnesota-thru-Iowa-to-Illinois, we’re hearing there are bigger problems out there than is being talked about.

 

Mike

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

Mike, You are explaining that to a foreigner?     He doesn't happen to be from Chicago does he?    Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

roarintiger1,

 

You get the funny award, today. Nice shot. No, these folks are 'official' foreigners.

 

Mike

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

Mike, Despite all the rain and bad news cropwise, I thought we needed a laugh.  Thanks for the award...I think.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

Hey guys,

 

Yesterday, another consultancy has raised the forecast for the Brazilian corn crop. In Argentina, the domestic market for soybeans is weaker than expected. I am bringing more details in my new blog: www.agrosouth-news.com . It's a new project. Let´s see where it goes.

 

Thanks for the support of Mike and others at Agriculture.com

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

When was it decided that carryout is bad? I think trying to end up with zero inventory is just playing with fire.