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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk June 4

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 4 1/2 cents higher at $3.63 1/2 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 4 1/4 cents higher at $3.81 per bushel.
July soybean futures ended 11 1/4 cents higher at $9.46 1/2. Nov. soybean futures closed 9 cents higher at $9.24.

July wheat futures settled 13 cents higher at $5.23 3/4.

July soymeal futures closed $3.00 per short ton higher at $305.70. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.50 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 161 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At tmid-session, the July corn futures are trading 4 1/4 cents higher at $3.63 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 4 cents higher at $3.80 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 11 cents higher at $9.46. Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 3/4 cents higher at $9.23.

July wheat futures are trading 9 1/4 cents higher at $5.20.

July soymeal futures are trading $4.90 per short ton higher at $307.60. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.28 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 132 points lower.

Jack Scoville., The PRICE Futures Group senior market analyst, says the higher markets are responding to weather.
“I think it is weather related,” Scoville says. “The rains in the southwest Midwest and Great Plains, again, plus the dry and cold weather seen in Canada seem to be driving this thing as much as anything. 
Farmers do not seem to be selling much yet, he says. “But, they will be starting to sell if this thing keeps going.  They know they need to get the old crop moved and will feel pressure to sell the new too, just at what price is the question.”
Speculative traders seem to be buying, he says. “I am a scale up seller for some people in Brazil even though it is a holiday there.  One of our stocks guys did some research and claims that we always head higher in El Nino years. So, we are on-guard here.”

 

Mike

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At 10am:

The markets are attracting buyers. Meanwhile, Allendale Inc. released its estimates for the June 10 WASDE Report.

 

Corn- Strong old crop ethanol and exports offset weaker feed/residual. For the new crop estimates we will show what USDA will use on June 10, not our actual in-house estimate. USDA will begin adjusting yields on the July report. 2014/15 Brazil production is estimated at 79.0 mt (USDA 78.0). Argentina is estimated at 25.0 mt (USDA 24.5).

Soybeans- Old crop exports and crush are revised higher. For the new crop estimates we will show what USDA will use on June 10, not our actual in-house estimate. USDA may begin adjusting yields on the July report. 2014/15 Brazil production is estimated at 95.5 mt (USDA 94.5). Argentina is estimated at 58.5 mt (USDA 58.5).

Wheat - Slightly lower winter wheat production is offset by higher spring production than USDA is using.
Supply & Demand, to be RELEASED ON 06/10/15

PRODUCTION                         14/15              15/16                15/16
In million bushels USDA USDA Allendale
Corn                                         14216              13630               13630
Soybeans                                 3969                3850                  3850
All Wheat                                  2026                2087                  2126
Other Spring                             595                   601
Durum                                        53                      55
Winter                                       1378               1472                    1470
HRW                                           738                  853                     850
SRW                                           455                  416                     420
WW                                            184                  203                      200

US ENDING STOCKS                 USDA           ALDL          USDA          ALDL
in million bushels                        14/15             14/15          15/16          15/16
US Corn                                      1851              1820            1746           1675
US Beans                                     350                340              500              490
US Wheat                                     709                706              793              817

WORLD ENDING STOCKS          USDA          ALDL           USDA           ALDL
in million metric tonnes                 14/15            14/15           15/16           15/16
World Corn                                   192.50          191.05          191.94        190.82
World Soybeans                            85.54             86.10           96.22           96.30
World Wheat                                200.97           201.12          203.32        205.72

 

 

What do you think of these production and ending stocks estimates?

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $3.58 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 3/4 of a cent lower at $3.76 per bushel.
July soybean futures are trading 3 1/4 cents higher at $9.38. Nov. soybean futures are trading 2 3/4 cents higher at $9.17.

July wheat futures are trading unchanged at $5.10.

July soymeal futures are trading $1.00 per short ton higher at $303.70. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.64 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday:

 

Wheat= 384,500 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 125,000-500,000 metric tons.

 

Corn= 410,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 550,000-1,000,000 mt.

 

Soybeans= 477,300 mt. vs. the trade's expectations of 250,000-550,000 mt.

 

Soybean meal =50,900 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 100,000-350,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

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At 7:50am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.05 higher.
Dollar =Lower. 
Wall Street = Seen lower, with bonds getting hammered. U.S. Jobless Claims came in below expectations.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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7 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

Looks like we are still firmly positioned in La La Land........  Ficticous tomorrow....

 

Here is a little reference that tells me the folks I read disagree with the folks you get the propaganda from.

 

 
 
 
 Not sure the attachment worked but it is a chart comparing spot US corn and Soybeans with Brazilian Spot market.....
 
I wish those who make the statements that our prices do not compete on a world market would actually be confronted with facts....
juliedavis91849
Veteran Contributor

Re: the rainfall distribution patterns for soys are more important during an El Nino

year than the rainfall quantity, ja-

 

appears soy experts are seeing some worrying signs globally.

 

Soy producing region of Madhya Predesh in India, known for growing more than one half of all India's soys is experiencing El Nino conditions..

 

Trade is now reacting to El Nino concerns, ja.

 

Markwright, I'm confident you are keeping up with El Nino..

 

over and out-

 

Gottlieb

 

 

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: the rainfall distribution patterns for soys are more important during an El Nino

lets add one more if that one is viewable

 

Shows the Dalian Commodity Exchange compared to the CME

 

 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

called my insurance agent this afternoon. Said the experts are all out training the agents all the ins and outs of Prevent Plant in this area of one of those I states that matter even if we are a fringe area.

 

No way I will dry out by the 15th on a lot of my acres. 

 

Why plant and take a reduced coverage and also slaughter my aph?

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

Well the "southwestern" corn belt got a new ruling interpretation this week.....

If we are PP and choose to plant another "uninsured" crop instead at a later date they will only pay 35% of the 75% loss coverage...

 

Wonder what will happen to my crop insurance coverage if they find I drive a toyota...

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WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

And, don't forget the 2nd part of that reduced payment, you also get quite an APH yield hit on the original PP crop acres if you plant a 2nd crop.  I didn't look it up, but I think the assigned yield is maybe 60% of your APH, so that will take some time to work thru your history, minimum 10 years.   Between the 35% payment, APH yield penalty, and late-planting risk (lower yields and fall risk), planting a 2nd crop doesn't look very attractive around here.  Without the 2nd crop, there's no APH yield penalty on the 1st crop.  And, even with an approved cover crop, I think there's a restriction on how soon it can be hayed or grazed -- around here, I think it's Nov 1st.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk June 4

Thanks WCMO,

 

Crop insurance continues to evolve to look like a typical fsa deal ........ continuous rule "clarifications"....... ie  write it as you go...

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