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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, June 5, 2019

At the close:

 

At the close, the July corn futures finished 10 1/2¢ lower at $4.14 3/4. Dec. corn futures closed 10 1/2¢ lower at $4.33 1/2.

July soybean futures closed 12¢ lower at $8.69 1/2. November soybean futures finished 12¢ lower at $8.97 1/4.

July wheat futures closed 16 1/2¢ lower at $4.90 3/4.



July soymeal futures settled $03.30 per short ton lower at $317.70.

 July soy oil futures ended $0.27 cent lower at 27.22¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.88 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 183 points higher.

Matt Tranel, Risk Management Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the markets are experiencing broad-based selling.

“It appears that traders aren't buying into the USDA's Crop Progress report number that was released on Monday. The range of guesses for planting was 68-72% with an average guess of 71%. The report came out at 67%. The Monday overnight session into Tuesday morning was higher, even gaping higher Monday night. Ever since then the market has been coming straight down. A lot of traders believe that progress was closer to 72-74% in actuality as many farmers were planting Saturday & Sunday which might not have been reflected appropriately,” Tranel says.

The other news is that Mexico is in Washington D.C. today discussing the tariffs that would go into effect beginning June 10th, if Mexico doesn't do more to curb illegal immigration into the United States, he says.

“Should those tariffs go into play, the trade is worried about retaliation. Mexico is the number one export market for corn, wheat, dairy, and number two export market for soybeans. Risk premium is being taken out of the market as a result,” Tranel says.

Mike

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At 11:36am:

 

Informa, the private analyst firm, released its updated 2019 acreage estimates, Wednesday.

 

Corn= 85.0 million acres, using a 174 bu./acre average yield, totaling 13.5 billion bushel crop.

 

Soybeans= 85.0 million acres, using a 51.0 bu./acre avg. yield, totaling 4.3 billion bushel crop.

 

What say you? Too big of a corn crop, too big of a corn yield?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

-----------------

At 11:15am:

 

At midsession, the July corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.21. Dec. corn futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.39 3/4.

July soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $8.79 1/2. November soybean futures are 2 1/2¢ lower at $9.06 3/4.

July wheat futures are 9 3/4¢ lower at $4.97.



July soymeal futures are $0.10 per short ton higher at $321.10.

 July soy oil futures are $0.25 cent lower at 27.24¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.47 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 124 points higher.

 

Mike

--------------

At 9:30am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $4.19. Dec. corn futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $4.37 3/4.

July soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $8.77 1/2. November soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $9.05 1/2.

July wheat futures are 5 3/4¢ lower at $5.01 3/4.



July soymeal futures are $1.70 per short ton lower at $319.30.

 July soy oil futures are $0.08 cent lower at 27.41¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.86 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 102 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are eager to see how the weaker wheat market impacts corn.

“Will lower wheat prices continue to pull corn and soybean prices down at the same time? The improved winter wheat crop ratings on Monday afternoon were a surprise for traders and many analysts,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

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6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 5, 2019

Interesting flood info -- Mississippi at one location in St. Louis is expected to crest at 46', which is 2nd only to 1993 crest of 48.58' in 1993 --

  https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lsx&gage=eadm7

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 5, 2019

I can't go along with wheat in better

Shape....alot of leaf disease due wet

Weather, and due to poor stands 

Since we did not get it in early,

A number of acres didn't get planted.  The acres we're not

Sprayed with fungicide, due to

Poor economics.

 

Yes there will be wheat.

But I don't think it will be

A bin buster. (( But I don't

Work for Nas/USDA either))

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 5, 2019

Bahahaha.   Informa = Nocluea

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 5, 2019

IDK, if I was going to speculate any more than I already do as a farmer, I would speculate that there won't be 85 million acres of corn harvested AND the yield will be south of 174, perhaps significantly.  Some of those acres will go PP, some will go to soybeans (with or without corn PP).  Corn yield reduction due to late planting, and significant high-yield areas unplanted, or switched crops.  On beans, calendar is also working against the acres and yield, yet some make-up acres possible from the corn acreage reductions, if able to plant beans before it's too late.  Bean yields still possible, but it is June, not May anymore, and there's still a likelihood of significant amount of high-yield bean area unplanted, which will pressure overall yield stat.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, June 5, 2019

A 174 yield...now that is hilarious...thankfully only big money can afford their expertise :-)

And too, the trade not buying the planting progress number, go ahead raise it to 72, in your supercomputers does that really matter. Still 25% to plant in June, yep, 174 nat yield is in the bag, errr we all use seed boxes now, still in the box :-)

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, June 5, 2019

Never underestimate the American Farmer USDA ability to produce a crop.

 

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